Bob Henson
@bhensonweather
Meteorologist and journalist. I cover wacky weather, changing climate, and how we live, love, work, get around, and dream.
After a low-energy parade of tepid systems in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, we have a monster on our hands: Cat 4 Hurricane #Genevieve, packing sustained winds of 155 mph. It's forecast to hit Cat 5 by Mon AM atop near-record-warm waters off the MX coast, then weaken as it stays well offshore.
High risk of excessive rain > flash flooding for parts of SW TX through 7 AM CDT Friday 7/17: "Areas of slow-moving, heavy rainfall are expected to continue...exacerbating the catastrophic impacts that unfolded across portions of the region overnight." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessiv...
The Guadalupe River at Centerpoint TX, just downstream from Kerrville, crested this AM at 37.94”— just 2 feet below the level reached in last summer’s catastrophic flood. 1. 39.61 ft on 07-04-2025 (P) 2. 24.27 ft on 10-16-2018 3. 14.83 ft on 05-29-2016 water.noaa.gov/gauges/gctt2
10”+ snowfall in Boulder thus far. Still snowing lightly at 9:30 AM 5/6/26. This is our latest-in-the-year 10”+ total since 23” on May 5-6, 1978, though we’ve had 8” amounts even later since then.
Winter storm warning 8 PM Tues > 3 PM Wed for the CO urban corridor. Eye-popping stuff for May 5: "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches with locally up to 12 inches near the foothills and across the Palmer Divide." mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...
The imminent wet storm for the CO urban corridor is a godsend for drought relief. But there's real concern about tree limbs/power lines Tues night. Boulder and other snow-prone spots could get 6" or more on trees that leafed out 20+ days early. That much snow, on late-May-equivalent trees = ugh.
#Maila predicted by JTWC to be the first hurricane-strength cyclone on record so close to the equator (north of 10S) in central Solomon Sea. It could strengthen to Cat 3 equiv. Steering currents are weak, so colossal rainfall amounts possible over the remote E islands & atolls of Papua New Guinea.
Wind forecast is uggghhh (see below). The one saving grace fire-wise is the snow we picked up late last week over the CO Front Range. Mostly gone now, but that's helped moisten the soil & vegetation just a bit. Landscape is dry but not bone-dry (for now). www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soi...
March 2012 was indeed incredible (and the subsequent fruit-tree freeze in April quite damaging). This event seems on track to be more Southwestern-focused once the next two weeks get folded in, versus the Midwestern skew in 2012 (see anomaly map attached). www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...
From these maps alone, I'm struggling to see how this month *doesn't* end up as the warmest March in contiguous U.S. history, perhaps by a long shot.
Ughhhh. Fortunately, winds at the nearby NCAR Mesa Lab are light and from the east, so not pushing the fire toward town. archive.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/weat...
Agree that the thresholds aren't the most thoroughly up-front factoids! Table is now revised per the good point you raised (see attached + embedded in the post).
Oh my. This escalated quickly. Already at G4 level (K index = 8). Could be an unusually early aurora show tonight in N America, given the time of year and the screaming pace.
This tree just came down on Pine St just west of Folsom St in Boulder. Winds already gusting to 100+ mph at NCAR Mesa Lab.
The NSF statement on NCAR closure aligns closely with the White House announcement from last night, first reported by USA TODAY. Note the complete absence of the word "climate." www.nsf.gov/news/intent-...
Tonight’s stupendous aurora-fest as seen in Louisville CO. As always, the phone camera makes these far more vivid than they actually looked to the naked eye. Still plenty bright—the most colorful I’ve seen anywhere, anytime.
Mind-boggling amounts of rain are in the latest 4-day forecast, including localized totals that could exceed 30 inches in far western Haiti and 40 inches in far eastern Jamaica. To state the obvious, flooding will be widespread and severe. www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
See also the experts cited in our Sept 8 post below at @climateconnections.bsky.social. Among other things, midlatitude ocean and air temps have been incredibly warm, which distorts the normal global circulation and complicates hurricane/typhoon formation. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/anot...
Much of the drought impact is related to the Southwest heating up as the planet warms (see NCEI prcp + temp gx below). The PDO normally swings back and forth over years>decades, so the PDO-related precip drop has been assumed to be mostly natural varability. The new research finds otherwise: 3/4
The PDO strongly relates to precipitation in the US Southwest. When the PDO is in its negative mode—as it's been most of the time for 25 years now—it favors La Niña patterns and less rain (and mountain snow) for the SW, which has been in its worst megadrought in 1200 years. 2/4
In July, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation hit its lowest monthly value in **171 years** of data. The current string of negative readings is the longest on record. How does this related to major research just out on climate change and prolonged SW US drought? 1/4 www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...
Across 75 years of data at Everglades Nat'l Park, 12 out of 31 days in July have set their record-warm daily low temperatures since 2020. All of these are at least 81°F. July lows in the Everglades region are now running 5°F above their early-20th century avg. www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...
Yet more flash flood warnings w/heavy rain in and around Kerr County this Sun AM 7/13 thru late AM. A carbon copy of July 4 is not expected, but this will only hinder relief/recovery efforts.
[date corrected:] This is painful to even contemplate, but there is a chance late Sat night 7/12-7/13 of 3"/hr rains and 9"+ totals near the hardest-hit areas in central Texas. From NOAA/WPC: "High Risk impacts cannot be ruled out locally." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
One more day: Mon flood risk just upgraded in central TX. NOAA/WPC: “Any storms that move across this extremely vulnerable region will rapidly cause flash flooding, some of which could be significant if cells repeat or stall over the already hard-hit regions.” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
It may seem counterintuitive, but some of the very hottest days in this region come on west or west-northwest breezes rather than southerly winds. The post explains why.
Multiple wind gusts in the 75-85 mph range at the NCAR Mesa Lab this morning (Thurs 5/15/25). More like a roaring winter downslope event than a spring breeze. With most trees already leafed out now, it's also *loud*. archive.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/weat...
On top of this severe-storm threat—with strong tornadoes possible on both Fri and Sat—there's an "extremely critical" wildfire threat on Fri (highest possible level) extending unusually far east in TX/OK into the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, even approaching DFW. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fir...