Bob Burgess
@bobburgess
Bloomberg Opinion Executive Editor and markets/eco columnist. Former Executive Editor for Global Markets. Opinions are my own.
*US TO ENFORCE BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS FROM JULY 14, 4PM ET Oil going parabolic on this news. Expect gasoline prices to follow.
DOGE was a DUD? Fiscal YTD numbers put out by the US Treasury show that spending has actually INCREASED, causing the budget deficit to EXPAND:
Despite efforts by the Trump administration, clean energy production is poised to break records in 2026, according to BloombergNEF:
The White House's war on American farmers continues, with Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings starting to really accelerate (via Arbor Data Science):
Lost in the conversation about the rise in $1 trillion companies and market bubbles is the fact that global stock buybacks in recent years have removed the equivalent of about seven $1 trillion companies, based on JPMorgan data
Brazil shows how #tariffs are backfiring on the US - even though the relationship between the two countries is pretty good. Bloomberg Eco says Brazil has diversified its exports away from the US, sending more to China and other countries as those to the US shrink:
At current prices, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond estimates that Americans will spend on average about $2,447 more on gasoline, up 53% from $1,599 before the war with Iran:
A reminder that Bessent used to be a hedge fund manager, and views like this might have been a reason why his assets under management steadily collapsed:
Americans are clearly having difficulty making ends meet, as the annualized core rate of inflation in the first quarter reached 4.4%, the highest since the start of 2023:
Today's economic reporting will focus on 1st-Qtr GDP being revised lower and how incomes/spending are stagnating. But what's most notable from the flood of today's data? Over the last year, Americans have burned through half their savings, seeing them fall from $1.27 trillion to $612 billion
This shows the divergence between what Americans care about - mortgage rates & gas prices - and Trump's approval ratings since the start of the war with Iran: Blue: price of gasoline. White: average 30-year mortgage rate. Red: Real Clear's approval rating based on average of multiple polls.
So, it seems US Senators will be eligible to received money from this $1.776 billion "Weaponization" fund: aboutbgov.com/blOc
After taking account of inflation, the CPI report just showed that average hourly early earnings growth is negative for the first time since 2023 #CPI #inflation
In other words, consumers saving less (white line is the saving rate) as inflation (blue line) surges:
We are now less than 2 cents away from national gasoline prices reaching $4.50 a gallon on average for regular grade
SHOT: *HASSETT, ASKED ABOUT GASOLINE PRICES: TRUMP BROKE OPEC CHASER: Gasoline prices are still soaring
Inflation is back with a vengeance, surging at a 4.3% annualized rate in the first quarter. If you strip out the pandemic years, that's by the highest rate of inflation this century, and the highest since 1990:
Gasoline prices to posted their biggest two-day advance in more than a month, rising 11.8 cents a gallon for regular grade, according to AAA
The ceasefire with Iran has done nothing to alleviate gasoline prices. The average price of regular grade gasoline has rebounded to a new high for the cycle of $4.176 per gallon:
The 3rd-highest ranking official at the DOJ actually wrote this in a court filing seeking to allow construction of the White House ballroom:
Meanwhile, here's the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Index of likely first-quarter GDP growth:
Visually, here's what the chart of the monthly CPI is forecast to look like when it's reported tomorrow:
The inflation rate was surging BEFORE the war in Iran, with the measure preferred by the Fed (the PCE) surging 0.4% in February. On a three-month annualized basis, inflation was running at a 4% rate. Friday's CPI report is forecast to show a 0.9% increase for March, the most since June 2022.
Is the Straight of Hormuz open? If you consider 1 vessel going through today as open, then yes: