Our Federal Reserve history Fed Talk is TODAY at 1 pm ET! You can still join us online. Register now: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

On balance, Fourth District contacts reported that business activity increased modestly in recent weeks, and contacts generally anticipated moderate growth in the coming months. #BeigeBook https://clefed.org/4vuVWJO

Overall employment rebounded nationwide and in the Fourth District by 2024, but manufacturing jobs remain well below 2002 levels. This decline coincides with an aging manufacturing workforce. See the data: https://clefed.org/4vyloOC

The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.43%. clefed.org/IE

16% trimmed-mean CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. https://clefed.org/CPI

New research introduces a way to measure which job tasks qualify workers to be "exempt" from overtime pay. This measure revealed 60% of salaried workers are in jobs in which either all or no tasks are exempt. See the paper: https://clefed.org/4aUJsnn

Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. The Cleveland Fed’s #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 3.96% in June. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV

The Federal Reserve has existed for 113 years, but how did the US handle monetary policy before the Fed existed? Join our economist emeritus Owen Humpage as he unpacks the crises that led to the Fed's creation in 1913. In-person registration closes TODAY: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

Curious how job trainers, like Dan Young, are tackling the reported soft skills gap? Our three‑chapter multimedia story highlights approaches and results. Read or listen now: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Nearly a third of nonemployer businesses, or firms with no paid employees except the owner(s), indicated in the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey that they planned to add employees in the next 12 months. See the chartbook: https://bit.ly/4wmw9V8

“I don’t think anybody [in this focus group] makes enough to be comfortable. We make enough just to live” a Worker Perspectives participants said. Uncover how workers and job seekers with a household income of <$85K are experiencing today’s economy. https://bit.ly/43LczFO

Could certain groups’ unemployment rates help predict broader unemployment issues? Our new research identifies groups of workers whose unemployment rates may be able to give economists an early sign of what’s to come: https://clefed.org/44MSKyh

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week. We will reopen on July 13 during our normal hours, Monday-Wednesday, 9 AM-2 PM. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Happy Independence Day from all of us at the Cleveland Fed! #IndependenceDay

The Federal Reserve has existed for 113 years, but how did the US handle monetary policy before the Fed existed? Join our economist emeritus Owen Humpage as he unpacks the crises that led to the Fed's creation in 1913. Register now: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

Our soft skills storytelling reveals how educators and employers are working to close reported gaps. See why our readers are connecting with the work, read, or listen, to all three chapters today: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Firms surveyed in the Fourth District say the strength of demand is the most important factor they consider when setting prices, even ahead of profit margins and competitors’ pricing. See their responses: https://clefed.org/4akDKLp

Nathalie, a UX designer at the Cleveland Fed, contributes to Federal Reserve innovation efforts and award‑winning storytelling projects. When she isn’t crafting intuitive digital experiences, she rock climbs—from the Dolomites to West Virginia. https://bit.ly/4gD1n5z

“I don’t think anybody [in this focus group] makes enough to be comfortable. We make enough just to live” a Worker Perspectives participants said. Uncover how workers and job seekers with a household income of <$85K are experiencing today’s economy. https://bit.ly/43LczFO

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE #inflation rate was 0.3% in May and 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Latest update: http://clefed.org/PCE

Monthly #PCE inflation data will be released tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year PCE #inflation of 3.97% for May. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV

Business lending has shifted over the past few decades: The share provided by banks is down, while lending from nonbank lenders is up. But how much of that nonbank lending is funded by banks? See the research: https://clefed.org/4uRvlGz

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week. We will reopen next week during our normal hours, Monday-Wednesday, 9:00 am-2:00 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Housing costs, price increases that are straining budgets, and the affordable housing shortage were the top concerns in a March 2026 survey of organizations serving low- and moderate-income communities. See the report: https://clefed.org/3S48olE

Erie, PA is under construction. Beth Hammack, our president and CEO, saw several downtown redevelopment projects, some complete and some underway, during a recent visit. The trip highlighted the region’s opportunities and challenges. Learn more: https://clefed.org/4ek0MDh

Want to level up your career without starting over? The Occupational Mobility Explorer shows how job skills can transfer to higher-paying roles in your area. Try the tool: https://clefed.org/3FXqOP9

"What are we doing wrong?" Hard data can't capture difficult choices, but listening can. During President Hammack's first visit to Erie, PA she heard directly from workers about how rising costs are forcing tough decisions on families. Read about her visit: https://clefed.org/4ek0MDh

Our automated guided vehicles (AGV) move money through each process of the cash life cycle and throughout our automated vault. Check out what a typical day looks like for an AGV:

Workforce development shapes our economic future. President Hammack visited @OSU's Center for Automotive Research, a Columbus pillar supporting students in advancing automotive research skills. See her thoughts: https://clefed.org/3PVj9pZ

The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.49%. clefed.org/IE