Dave Sills 🍁🌪️🎶⚓☮️
@davesills
Canadian tornado guru at uwo.ca/ntp and the new CSSL.ca at WesternU in Londontario, my debut album is 'Fifty' (bit.ly/40WqxUy) and my latest album is 'Cover Me' (bit.ly/3V1MnCG), Great Lakes sailor, ECCC & YorkU alumnus, #ElbowsUp
Reduces incoming solar radiation, lowers the maximum temperature near the ground, reduces the amount of instability available for storms. Light blue colour south and west of the current storms in this GOES image is smoke.
This morning's outlook from CPIQ increases the 'high' area size and adds a tornado icon to the 'moderate' area. All good. But if this environment is not 'extreme', I'm not sure what is. The one fly in the ointment is the amount of smoke drifting over the area - that could reduce severity. #meteoQC
The thunderstorm outlook for tomorrow issued by the ECCC weather office in Montreal does show a 'high' risk centred on Trois-Rivières with a tornado icon associated, but no tornado icon for other areas along the St. Lawrence Valley. I'm concerned that underplays the risk. Guess we'll see... #meteoQC
I hope Quebec is ready for what is coming at them tomorrow weather-wise. There is agreement among models/runs that supercell thunderstorms are likely over a large area along the St. Lawrence Valley. This HRRR sounding suggests an extreme environment capable of generating violent tornadoes. #meteoQC
Also appears to be a number of unwarned supercell thunderstorms well to the NE of Cold Lake. The supercell west of Jans Bay, SK, looks particularly intense. #SKstorm
In fact, the storm environment east of this area over the next several hours is downright extreme (RAP model output shown). Potential for a violent tornado in these conditions. Pay close attention to ECCC warnings and keep an eye on the sky if in the the area NW of Prince Albert. #SKstorm
ECCC has issued a yellow-level Tornado Watch for central Saskatchewan (light yellow polygon). A severe thunderstorm warning is already in place for the Unity area. Monitor ECCC alerts and be prepared if in this area. Hoping we don't have a repeat of yesterday's tornado outbreak here! #SKstorm
Where's the greatest tornado threat predicted in North America today? How about northern Saskatchewan. After a major tornado outbreak in SK yesterday, here's hoping the threat doesn't materialize. Image from the US SPC SREF tool. #SKstorm
Really intense supercell with strong rotation heading southeast toward Waldheim, SK, north of Saskatoon. Tornado warned, and chasers have reported tornadoes with the storms in this area. Very large hail also possible. Take shelter immediately if in the path of this storm. #SKstorm
Doesn’t look that impressive on radar but this squall line is generating severe winds > 100 km/h. Batten down the hatches in Chatham, and maybe even London later on. #ONstorm
Splitting supercell with left-mover near Greely likely producing large hail while right-mover is near Irish Lake and heading ESE toward Glenmore and Prescott. The latter cell has tornado potential - prepare to take shelter if in those areas. #ONstorm
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Supercell thunderstorm rotation about 10-20 minutes before it produced a tornado west of Glencoe, ON earlier today. Rain and some large hail wrapping around the back near end of video. Shown at 2x speed to achieve the level of impressiveness I experienced in real time (IMHO). #ONstorm
Had an intense storm chase today as a supercell thunderstorm moved SE across SW Ontario. Strong low-level rotation, then a tornado developed west of Glencoe. Some large hail, too. Did a preliminary damage survey then caught a double rainbow and mammatus on the way home. Full package! #ONstorm 1/2
Supercell with weak rotation making its way ESE. Nit looking all that organized at the moment, but constant thunder lets you know that this storm is still very much alive - and a threat. #ONstorm
South of Alvinston looking NW. Constant rumble of thunder. #ONstorm
Line of storms moving through eastern ON could be developing some embedded rotation. Given the current storm environment, a tornado is possible as this line moves into QC. #ONstorm
It's the 80th anniversary of the 1946 F4 Windsor tornado today. It was a dark day for the city (literally, power outages over a large area). The tornado is still one of the deadliest ever in Canada. I was interviewed about it for piece by CBC Radio Windsor: www.cbc.ca/listen/live-... #ONstorm
It's not totally clear but sure looks like a tornado debris signature (TDS) on the supercell at Brooks, AB. It has spatial and temporal continuity. We'll see if any damage reports or tornado pics show up. #ABstorm
Unverified photo from southern Manitoba from before 4:17 pm CDT. "From Grunthal looking towards St Pierre". Looks like it could be a legit tornado. I'm hearing there may be video as well. Suggests that any supercells in the Winnipeg / Steinbach area are capable of generating tornadoes. #MBstorm
I believe this is a new record for storm chaser convergence in Canada (red dots). And pretty sure there are even more not reporting on SpotterNet. #SKstorm
Lastly, re this paragraph, this is all true. But when forecasters are issuing life-saving severe storm warnings, including warnings for catastrophic tornadoes, derechos, hail and flash flooding, they are not using weather models. They are analyzing radar data, and the highest quality is needed. 13
Regarding this paragraph of the Minister's response, yes, Environment Canada will of course continue to operate and maintain the radar network. But there's nothing in there about R&D, and fixing known issues with data quality. In contrast, EC weather models *always* have a strong R&D component. 12
Regarding this paragraph of the Minister's response, yes, the new radars in Canada's network are the most advanced instruments in our arsenal of weather observation tools. Each radar costs millions of dollars - truly high tech. They require radar scientists and engineers to support and develop. 10