Right now, GOP's in line for net +5 House seats in redistricted states, raising party's floor. Generic ballot has gotten tighter, putting baseline electoral environment closer to where it needs to be for the House to be a pure toss-up (D+2.5). Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-elect...

DDHQ's 2026 forecast: -House: Democrats have 3 in 5 shot of winning -Senate: GOP has just shy of 3 in 5 shot at winning House forecast may surprise some. But redistricting & closer generic ballot has reduced D chances of majority. See link below for more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-elect...

Republicans are the favorites to win the Senate in our forecast with a 57% win probability, with the most likely outcome being a 50-50 Senate. Here's the ratings for some of the major Tossup and competitive races:

Democrats are the favorites to win the House in our forecast with a 61% win probability, and are favored in 226 seats.

CONTROL Democratic Congress - 40% probability Republican Congress - 36% probability Republican Senate, Democratic House - 22% probability Democratic Senate, Republican House - 3% probability votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026

SENATE Republicans are narrowly favored to win the Senate. Republicans - 57% probability Democrats - 43% probability. Democrats are favored to flip North Carolina, and five states (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas) are Tossups. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...

HOUSE Democrats are favored to flip the House. Democrats - 61% probability Republicans - 39% probability Democrats are favored in 226 seats and Republicans are favored in 209 seats. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/

SOUTH CAROLINA Four local elections; a mayoral special election in Abeville and city council election in Hanahan are contested. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-0...

Maine Democrats and South Carolina Republicans suddenly must choose new nominees in their U.S. Senate race. How do their situations compare with past replacements? Since 1950, there are now 31 cases where a party substituted a nominee for Senate/governor. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-sub...

TONIGHT: Join us over on the official DDHQ Discord server (discord.gg/ddhq) at 8pm ET for a conversation with @geoffreyvs and Eric Cunningham, where we'll be taking all of your questions.

What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with @bangordailynews.bsky.social politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.

Decision Desk HQ projects Victor Marx wins the CO Governor Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 9:33 PM EDT

After RCV, Shah finished 2nd to ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree. But Jackson & Bellows are viewed as more progressive. First, Platner has to agree to withdraw. He has until 5pm ET on Monday, July 13. His numbers vs Collins continue to worsen. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/genera...

3 losing Dems from Maine's gubernatorial race look to replace Platner: -Ex-state Sen. Troy Jackson has filed with FEC -Sec. of State Shenna Bellows "will seriously consider" -Fmr state CDC head Nirav Shah discussing it Each won 20%+ 1st-choice votes. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-0...

A source told @bangordailynews.bsky.social that another negative Platner story could come out soon. #MESen In today's newsletter, DDHQ noted that Collins's numbers have already trended upward in the last month. She went from trailing Platner by ~5 pts to leading by 1 in DDHQ's average.

NEW: Our Texas Senate polling average is live! 🔵 James Talarico -- 45.8% 🔴 Ken Paxton -- 44.9% votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/genera...

In the Dem primary for #COGov, state AG Phil Weiser defeated Sen. Michael Bennet. The GOP primary remains unprojected, with state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer holding a very narrow edge over ministry leader Victor Marx. That and more in our roundup: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

DeGette is the 7th House member to lose renomination in 2026 (5 Democrats, 2 Republicans). She's the 3rd Democratic incumbent to lose to a clearly more left-leaning primary opponent. Read about CO-01 here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

DDHQ Race Update (est. 89% in): Colorado Governor Republican Primary Barb Kirkmeyer (R): 186,274 (39.9%) Victor Marx (R): 184,918 (39.6%) Scott Bottoms (R): 95,208 (20.4%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283849

Decision Desk HQ projects Dwayne Romero wins the CO US House 3 Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 11:20 PM EDT

DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Colorado US House 3 Democratic Primary Dwayne Romero (D): 39,856 (54.9%) Alex Kelloff (D): 32,683 (45.1%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283834

DDHQ Race Update (est. 80% in): Colorado Governor Republican Primary Barb Kirkmeyer (R): 170,643 (40.9%) Victor Marx (R): 162,872 (39.0%) Scott Bottoms (R): 83,594 (20.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283849

DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Colorado US House 3 Democratic Primary Dwayne Romero (D): 39,651 (55.0%) Alex Kelloff (D): 32,488 (45.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283834

Decision Desk HQ projects John Hickenlooper wins the CO US Senate Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 10:59 PM EDT

DDHQ Race Update (est. 77% in): Colorado US House 3 Democratic Primary Dwayne Romero (D): 37,664 (55.0%) Alex Kelloff (D): 30,797 (45.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283834

DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Colorado US Senate Democratic Primary John Hickenlooper (D): 368,540 (57.0%) Julie Gonzales (D): 278,460 (43.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283830

DDHQ Race Update (est. 77% in): Colorado Governor Republican Primary Barb Kirkmeyer (R): 165,379 (41.1%) Victor Marx (R): 156,623 (38.9%) Scott Bottoms (R): 80,433 (20.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283849

DDHQ Race Update (est. 80% in): Colorado US Senate Democratic Primary John Hickenlooper (D): 367,328 (57.0%) Julie Gonzales (D): 277,265 (43.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283830

Decision Desk HQ projects Melat Kiros wins the CO US House 1 Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 10:31 PM EDT

DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Colorado US House 1 Democratic Primary Melat Kiros (D): 53,369 (48.6%) Diana DeGette (D): 48,479 (44.1%) Wanda James (D): 7,989 (7.3%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/283832