Dr. Jeff Masters
@drjeffmasters
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
NOAA's AQI model for 8 am Thu shows Brown ("Hazardous") AQI from smoke in the NYC, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Cleveland metro areas. These conditions (if they verify, remember forecasting smoke is HARD!) will likely last only for a few hours, but you don't want to be outside without an N95 mask! (7/8)
Canada's AQI model has a similar look, though with much lower concentrations, mostly in the AQI 100-150 "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range. It looks to me, though, that the model is missing some of the fires that the other models are seeing. (5/8)
NOAA's other flagship AQI model, the HRR-Smoke also shows this. (4/8)
The latest forecast from NOAA's AQI model for 6 pm Wednesday shows Red ("Unhealthy") to Purple ("Very Unhealthy") and Brown ("Hazardous") smoke moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast. (3/8)
Current PM 2.5 from purpleair.com shows most of the smoke seen on satellite images is not reaching the ground. Red "Unhealthy" AQI was mostly in Canada around Lake Superior. However, that will change on Wed-Thu as the clockwise flow of air around a high in Canada pushes smoke to the southeast. (2/8)
A dangerous and potentially historic wildfire smoke event is headed toward the Great Lakes and Northeast. Yesterday, record 100° heat, very dry fuels, and strong winds worsened wildfires near the Minnesota/Ontario border. Their smoke will affect MN, WI, MI, OH, NY, NJ, and PA on Wed-Thu. (1/8)
100-degree temperatures helped out a major outbreak of wildfires in northern Minnesota and Ontario today, generating heavy smoke and a big pyrocumulus cloud. HRRR Smoke forecast for Wed afternoon shows significant smoke affecting northern WI, MN, and MI.
Tropical Storm Risk predicts the 2026 NW Pacific typhoon season to be one of the most active on record: 28 named storms, 19 typhoons, 12 intense typhoons and an ACE index of 436, 8th-highest since 1950. Highest ACE on record was in strong El Niño year of 1997: 571. Bavi has an ACE of 47 so far.
Holy fractals, Batman! Just came across this image from May 31 of actinoform clouds off the coast of Peru from the Sentinel satellite. eu-space.europa.eu/components/e...
SSTs in in Gulf of Mexico are at a record high for this time of year, courtesy of last week’s heat wave. Huge 1°C jump in the past week. Good thing it’s an El Niño year, reducing the odds of a hurricane there. kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/GOMs...
Good summary of what’s important that’s going on with climate change. My favorite graphic:
New Jersey has 165,000 without power; heat index forecast to be above 100° this afternoon.
Wildfire activity ramped up in northern Canada over the past 4 days, resulting in the 1st significant incursion of Canadian wildfire smoke into the U.S. this year, into Montana and North Dakota. Plenty of smoke in the Rockies from U.S. fires, too.
New study: the European heat wave would rank as the 7th deadliest in world history, using numbers from EM-DAT for historical events, as I detailed yesterday: yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/east... Callahan’s study is only for the 7 days ending Jun 28, and extreme heat also occurred Jun 29-30.
TS Arthur's moisture dumped 29.06" in <12 hours at Cottonport, LA. According to weather historian Chris Burt, if confirmed by NOAA, this would be the highest official 12-hour rainfall in U.S. history. Unofficial record: 34.30" in Smethport, PA on July 18, 1942. 1/4
EM-DAT says the 8 deadliest heat waves in world history were in Europe. This week's heat wave will surely make the list. But a 2026 paper (www.frontiersin.org/journals/env...) found 1-day extreme heat waves in India kill ~3,400 and 5-day heat waves kill ~30K, so proper India data is missing.
The southwest monsoon about a week behind in India, per IMD. El Niño usually cuts down on monsoon rainfall over India. Top 5 rainfall deficit years all were during El Niño: 1877: -33% 1899: -29% 1918: -25% 1972: -24% 2009: -22% During moderate El Niño conditions in summer of 2015: -14%
It’s pink lady slipper season at Pictured Rocks - though the mosquitoes make it challenging to be there! Spotted 14 lady slippers on a hike from Hurricane Beach yesterday.
Got treated to an excellent weather show in SE Michigan today with 3 thunderstorms, mammatus, and pea-sized hail.
The only predicted instance of major river flooding so far from #PTC1 is expected on Oso Creek near Corpus Christi; NOAA is predicting a crest on Wednesday morning just above major flood stage, 18 feet higher than the creek was on Monday.
As of 3 days ago, the central Texas coast needed 19-20" of rain in just one month to pull them out of their intense long-term drought conditions, according to NOAA. Widespread amounts of 2-4" have fallen since then, with more to come from #PTC1. The Florida Peninsula needed 20-26".
Hoo boy, this is an amazing piece of scholarship that @samlmontano.bsky.social has done! Bottom line if FEMA Council report becomes law: you’re on your own, disaster survivors.
New study: relative sea level rise from all causes made a 100-year flood in 1900 a 1-in-5-year flood or less by 2005 in Key West, Jacksonville, Atlantic City, and Maine. I plotted these from assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-749...
New study: relative sea level rise from all causes made a 100-year flood in 1900 a 1-in-5-year flood or less by 2005 in Hawaii, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Seattle. I plotted these from assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-749...
Ouch. Flood protection infrustructure is typically designed for a 1-in-50-year or 1-in-100-year flood. New study finds, “At nearly half of the 130 sites analyzed in the study, a flood expected once every 100 years in 1900 now occurs at least once per decade.” news.tulane.edu/pr/sea-level...
New study finds increased wildfire smoke has erased 4 years of progress in controlling surface ozone pollution. "Premature deaths from fire-sourced ozone have increased by 318 deaths per year since 2013, with post-2013 mortality 46% higher than pre-2013 mortality." www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
May 2026 had the second-worst May drought conditions in contiguous U.S. history, with a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of -6.93. The only worse May: the Dust Bowl year of 1934 (a PDSI of -7.03). Three of the top-10 months for worst U.S. drought since 1895 have been in 2026:
Sibi, Pakistan has had highs ranging from 115-122°F (46-50°C) the past 7 days. All-time world heat record: 130°F in Death Valley, CA (ignoring the bogus 134°F official record). The forecast for next week: similar brutality. The monsoon usually arrives 2nd week of July, but is a week behind in 2026.
@climateflavors.bsky.social gave a great talk at wclivestream.com on worsening drought in the SW U.S. from less precip and warming. Part of the precip deficit may be from air pollution in Asia affecting jet stream position. If significant pollution reduction are made there, SW U.S. drought may ease.