Jason Reifler

@jasonreifler

Political Science Prof at University of Southampton. I study misperceptions, fact-checking, and foreign policy attitudes. American in the UK. he/his (y'all whenever possible). Spurs #COYS.

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Bluesky

¿Es tu perfil?Reclámalo y jasonreifler.dirty.social es tuyo.Reclamar perfil

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jun 18

This version (counterfeit knockoff?) would make a pretty good Inter home kit.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jun 7

Very simple stats profile (xG and xA per 90) are pretty strong. 25/26 was a down year. Is that an aberration or the new norm? Not sure about other aspects of the stats/scouting profile.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· May 13

I had Claude compile possible PL table outcomes for Spurs and West Ham (based on match prediction market prices for GW37 and GW38). Screenshot below. (I don't gamble but do enjoy looking at market prices.) I have assumed Spurs win goal difference tie breaker (maybe relevant to next post).

Spreadsheet of final point distribution implied probabilities from prediction market prices.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Apr 6

“Next week is infrastructure week” has taken a very dark war crimey turn.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Mar 23

On the one hand, it is good to walk back from ridiculous escalatory threats. On the other, it is bad for a POTUS to use social media to make destabilizing policy pronouncements in the first place, and then walk them back through what I suspect are exaggerated claims ("productive talks").

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Mar 18

I think that’s a 3-4-1-2 (but maybe 3-4-3 with a front line of RKM-Tel-Xavi). I don’t know. Vic Romero Dragusin VdV Porro Gray Sarr Spence Xavi RKM Tel

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jan 19

What IDDSI level should we use?

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jan 7

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Aug 7

Very bad. Also, does last sentence mean you can be hired without a college degree or that you can’t be hired with a college degree? Typical usage clearly is former, but so much is atypical these days.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jul 11

Our “most flavorless cheese” is a weird flex, but people like what they like.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jul 3

Here's pretty much the same thing in regression table form (adding dummy variables for whether the team Spurs played was in the top 6 or bottom 6 of the expected points table) Again, more minutes for Spurs best players dramatically improves outcomes.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jul 3

Here's a scatterplot of the percentage of minutes played by best XI (Xipct) and the expected points (xp) for Spurs last season (PL matches only). You will be shocked to learn there is a very strong correlation -- the more minutes played by their best players, the better they do in xP.

A scatterplot of Spurs premier league games from the 24/25 seasons, with the X the percentage of minutes played by the team's best 11, and the Y axis the expected points for Spurs from the match.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jun 25

Is this a good use of generative AI? No. But also, yes.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jun 20

Fixed term post available at Southampton based in the National Centre for Research Methods. I don't know the details, but can connect interested with people who do. Screen shot/alt text from ad. Application closing date Tuesday, June 24. jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

The digital skills project aims to develop skills training in AI methods to deliver an innovative training and capacity building programme that will help to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of digital skills and AI. Work spans across three project themes: 1. Large language models for (survey) research and data usage and analysis, 2. AI in prediction and in polling data; and 3. Use of AI to support environmental sustainability research. The programme leverages the UK-wide partnership model of NCRM.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· May 13

From acknowledgements of @polpsychjoe.bsky.social and @florianstoeckel.bsky.social's recent piece at Political Psychology. doi.org/10.1111/pops... Genuinely touched by such a lovely statement. How’d it get so dusty in here all of sudden, whoa my eyes sure are watering from all the dust.

Additionally, we would like to express our heartfelt thanks to Jason Reifler. We have benefited greatly from the collegial, generous, and intellectually stimulating environment he created in the Debunker Lab. Without the connections and conversations fostered there over the years, this collaboration would not have come about.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· May 13

Here's another screenshot for the call document:

Possible topics for paper submissions include, but are not limited to:

• How current political upheaval creates a space in which national populism can pitch its message

• How national identities and contested ideas of the nation are mobilised politically

• How contemporary security issues of international relations such as Ukraine, China, tariffs, climate change and energy security take on significance in domestic politics

• Public perceptions of security threats in Europe, and how threat perceptions influences policy preferences

• The role of identity politics in shaping European security policies and preferences

• Generational differences in security perceptions/preferences and European identity

We welcome papers across the methodological spectrum: theoretical, quantitative/ experimental, qualitative, policy analysis, or others. This conference seeks to foster an interdisciplinary dialogue among scholars and policy practitioners working at the intersection of political science, international relations, security studies, and European studies.

We encourage submissions from scholars at all career stages.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· May 13

Funded workshop at Southampton on the topic of "Public Opinion, Identity, and Security in Europe"! Workshop will be held on June 16. Please submit your proposals/abstract by May 21. (Please help circulate widely!) Kamil Zwolski, John Denham, and I are the coordinators of this event.

Public Opinion, Identity, and Security in Europe

The Centre for Comprehensive European Security at the University of Southampton is pleased to invite paper submissions for an upcoming workshop on Public Opinion, Identity, and Security in Europe. The workshop will take place on June 16 at the University of Southampton.
Europe is currently navigating a period marked by significant political upheaval and realignments – both domestically amidst the rising tide of populism and internationally with the second Trump Administration. We invite papers that explore the relationship between identity (broadly defined) and public opinion about European security.

Globalisation, energy security, and the rise of a multi-polar world (inter alia) significantly challenge the ability of nation states to meet the aspirations of voters in both domestic and international affairs. Yet, the nation state retains its place as the primary site of political contest and preference aggregation. We seek papers that explore the how this space between expectation and delivery has implications for comprehensive European security.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Apr 3

If I'm doing this right, the "tariff" imposed on the UK by the US (which was a goods trade surplus), is ~14.8% (UK trade deficit of $11,856M divided by US goods imports $79,941). Following US policy guidance (half the "tariff"), the appropriate UK retaliatory "reciprocal tariff" would be ~7.4%.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Mar 11

For anybody who keeps track of tactical/strategic voting communications to voters, here’s from a Labour leaflet dropped through my mail slot in Exeter.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Oct 14

Gosh, do I look goofy when I present. But getting a chance to speak before an engaged audience at the EU is pretty cool. Other pictures clearly show my (as my daughter puts it "signature look") pink shoes.

The poster laments how goofy he looks when he gives presentations. He is standing at a lectern speaking at an event at the EU, and his hands are in a weird position.

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Sep 17

Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #138,593!

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jul 19

Actual email!

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Jan 30

“Can you believe somebody let Elon Musk — ELON MUSK!!! — implant a microchip in their brain? I mean, WTAF.” media.glamour.com/photos/65b7b...

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler· Dec 20

Co-authors and I were wondering how to discuss the persistence of treatment effects across survey waves. This was my suggestion. (Though co-author came up with prompt that created better image than what I managed.)