Here are more details on those blockbuster 2Q oil profits: centreforfuturework.ca/2026/08/06/i.... Don't hold your breath waiting for these profits to be reinvested: combined capex by these 4 majors actually FELL in the 2Q. But they paid $6b to owners in dividends & share buybacks (up $2b). /4

But the longer-term trends also refute Trump's chaotic economic & geopolitical policies. Since Jan.2025 (his 2nd inauguration), US employment fell 1.0% (by the HH survey), the unemployment rate has grown, and the participation rate (much lower than Cda's) has fallen much more. /3

The stark contrast in today's labour force data from Canada & the U.S. certainly strengthens Canada's hand in ongoing trade talks with Trump. Canada created 75K jobs in July. The U.S. lost 23K by one measure (payroll survey), 87K by another (household survey). #cdnecon #canlab /2

Read the full report on 'The Economic Benefits of Public Health Care,' nursesunions.ca/research/the.... Photo credit Sussanne Skidmore @bcfed.bsky.social 🙏

Very exciting to meet with Canada's Premiers today to discuss the 'other side of the coin' of public health care: Yes it's a big cost, but it's a huge economic driver, too. Jobs, growth, innovation--and a big flowback to govt revenues. Thanks to @cfnu.bsky.social for hosting. #cdnecon #canlab /2

UBS 2026 Global Wealth Report confirms the typical (ie. median) Canadian is 2x wealthier than the median American. Cda ranks 7th on median wealth, US 28th. Galactic hoards of Musk, Bezos, et al inflate the US average but virtually none flows to most Americans. #canlab #cdnecon /2

These lovely rules should apply everywhere in life, not just at the rec centre. Respect, cooperation, participation. But far too woke for those nostalgic for “warrior culture.”

For a primer on what really sets oil prices in Canada (no, it's not 'supply and demand'), the likely trajectory of this oil price shock (the 14th since 1973), and its total cost to Canadian consumers ($50b in 12 months, even if Hormuz opened today), see: centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a...

Knee-jerk reflex to blame this needless inflation (and all that follows, including rate hikes) on 'supply & demand' is overpowering. StatsCan itself says it's all 'supply uncertainty'. There's no supply uncertainty in Canada: we produce more oil than ever, 3x more than we use. /3

In our news release yesterday about the threat of continuing oil-fueled inflation, I expressed skepticism that Trump's deal would fully & permanently reopen the Strait. In my heart of hearts, though, I confess I thought it'd last more than 1 day. mailchi.mp/b78a1f6fe7ef... #cdnecon

Still time to register for our Centre for Future Work webinar tomorrow (Thursday) May 21, 1pm ET (10am PT), on our new report, "A Sequel We Don't Want." Please register at us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... We'll cover how much Canadians will pay cuz of the latest oil shock. #canlab /2

If the Strait remains closed longer (as seems likely), inflation will go higher. Total cost to consumers from this shock: $50b over 12 months if Strait reopens immediately; $100b if it stays closed 3 more months; $129b if it stays closed 6 more months. /3

Thanks to Kris McCusker at @news24-680.bsky.social for this deep dive into the 'K-shaped' economy: toronto.citynews.ca/podcasts/in-.... We discuss why the gap between rich and poor is widening, why that hurts long-run economic performance, & how this latest oil shock will make things worse. #cdnecon

Are you enjoying your 10c/litre holiday from the federal excise tax on gasoline (starting April 20)? The avg Cdn price fell 10c that day. But since then it's risen 20c. So the avg price now is 10 cents higher than BEFORE the 10 cent tax cut! (Data from gasbuddy.com) /2

What a great choice for @avilewis.ca's first big policy intervention as @ndp.ca leader: ndp.ca/news/ndp-mov.... This issue epitomizes how avg people are exploited by the tech & market power of oligopolists, & their intrusion into every moment of our lives. I predict this'll be very popular! /2

And unlike the carbon price, OIL COMPANIES WILL NOT GIVE YOU THIS MONEY BACK! The silence is deafening from all those who blamed the carbon price for energy price inflation (and most other evils in life). They don't care about high prices when they are enriching corporations. /3

NOT-SO-FUN-FACT: According to gasbuddy.com/charts, the Canadian avg price of gasoline has risen 35c/litre since Trump & Bibi started war with Iran. That's twice as much, in 2 weeks, as the former federal carbon price ultimately added after its entire 6 years of existence. /2

On avg, open futures contracts cover 10bil bbls (100 days of world supply) each day. Most are cancelled long before delivery; only 1% of contracts actually result in delivery of physical oil. Therefore, shifts in speculative sentiment dominate market movements, producing this: /3

Ever wonder why the price of oil falls $10/bbl in minutes, then rises $10/bbl a few minutes later? Cuz that price is set on a market that trades paper, not oil. Oil futures markets trade paper contracts for over 500bil bbls of oil/year. The entire world produces only 37bil. /2

Among the 92K jobs lost in today's dismal US jobs report, were 12K MORE jobs gone from US manufacturing. That brings the total toll to 138K US manufacturing jobs (-1.1%) lost since Trump's '24 election. His policies are hurting blue collar workers; Canada can outlast him #cdnecon

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine had NO impact on world oil supply, yet speculative futures markets caused a 65% spike in oil prices that was the major cause of subsequent inflation in 🇨🇦 & elsewhere. It cost Cdns $200b in the next 3 yrs: falseprofits.ca/reports #cdnecon #canlab /2

Today's 4Q25 Canadian GDP data has some interesting quirks. The headline GDP decline (0.15%) was ENTIRELY due to a huge inventory drawdown, reversing a huge inventory build from the 2Q (when exports were hurt worst by Trump's tariffs). /2 #cdnecon #canlab

With Trump wildly firing off tariff threats (on Canadian aerospace, Cuba trade, and any other pet peeve), this is a regular reminder that his policies are a self-inflicted wound on US manufacturing. US lost 72K mfg jobs since he started the tariff wars. Canada gained 16K. #cdnecon #canlab

Fascinating analysis from @jasonkirby.bsky.social for @theglobeandmail.com on new NBER research showing the actual impact of Trump's tariffs on Canada is 3x worse than the nominal rate, due to supply chain interactions: www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art.... Canada among hardest hit countries.

Our #ElbowsUp Summit in September highlighted the dangerous regression in Canada's trade profile since 2000, with primary staples now making up almost 50% of merch exports. We need to diversify not just where we sell, but what we sell: policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... #cdnecon #canlab

Important from @pollara.bsky.social: Canadians understand exports of unprocessed raw resources can't guarantee prosperity or sovereignty in an age of global chaos. We must add value to resources, to maximize jobs, tech & sovereign capacity. pollarastrategicinsights.substack.com/p/from-anxie... /2

You could teach a course in economic policy based solely on @jasonkirby.bsky.social's awesome annual New Year's chart-extravaganza in the @theglobeandmail.com. Here's my 2026 entry: bring our capital home from Trump's USA to build a more independent #cdnecon www.theglobeandmail.com/business/eco...

Arrived just in ⏰ to celebrate the end of a difficult year for the economy, and for the 🌎: spanking new Routledge Handbook of Heterodox Economics. My chapter is on the Political Economy of Trade Unions. Big 🙏 to T-H Jo, L Chester & C D'Ippoliti for your hard work on this. #canlab

Join our webinar tomorrow, Wed. Dec.10, 1pm EST, digging into the new Centre for Future Work report on the ongoing transition away from fossil fuel jobs in Canada's labour market. Register for 'Effective Transitions for Fossil Fuel Workers in Canada': us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... /2 #canlab

The report has 8 recommendations to design transition supports that are concrete, binding & effective–rather than the performative jargon that characterizes many govt 'transition' consultations. Key elements: notice, planning, and power for FF workers to bargain collectively. /10