Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Hilarious Pulse photo of Tas Labor leader Josh Willie doing a presser restating Labor's support for keeping greyhound racing in front of ... #politas
A few accounts in the other place have drawn attention to the latest One Nation stuffup in which Western Metro candidate Fiona Lopez is quoted saying this. 457 visas ceased in 2018. #springst
Actually provided Group Ticket Voting is abolished as is underway the number of parties in the upper house will almost certainly fall. Treating the Coalition as two parties, there were 11 elected in 2018 and 10 in 2022. It could easily be just 5 or 6 this year. #springst
One Nation assembling in strength in their strongest vote getting areas again I see.
Hanson has not been in parliament for 30 years. She has been in parliament for approaching 13 years total, with the first few of those starting 30 years ago.
Hahahaheeheehee, with this lot having made a stupid comment on facebook is near obligatory.
There is still time, but it's been very quiet the last couple of weeks regarding the issue that actually matters. #springst
Oh there is *another* wrong pie chart in the Herald-Sun article! The 2PP at the 2022 election was 55-45 not 53-47.
And finally YET ANOTHER example of serious pie chart abuse from a supposed newspaper. A pie chart is to show PORTIONS OF THE WHOLE not portions adding up to 90%.
I know this because when he was scrubbing his social media he forgot to delete his Threads account. Like you do!
Tony Abbott has corrected his (or his AIs?) bizarre false claim that there is an electorate called Truganini in the ACT. But it's a very weak sorry-not-sorry, he seems to be implying that because he was astonishingly sloppy everybody else might be too.
Folks we (or at least I) need to talk about Redbridge/Accent underestimating the IND/others vote for Vic state. For Western Metro they have others on 5%. Others got 20.9% in 2022! No they are not all going to One bloody Nation. VicSoc got 5% *by themselves*. #springst
Blow-ins to this fight are claiming a victory that is not won yet. The time for the claim will be when the death of Group Ticket Voting has received Royal Assent, not before. (Also ON stopped losing out through GTV long ago as their win in N Vic last time demonstrates)
If the current #RedbridgeAccent poll is anywhere near right (and even allowing for differences between the houses) Labor is currently staring at a disastrous result in the Vic Legislative Council whatever the lower house outcome. #springst
Moira Deeming's standards too low for One Nation; can we now cross to a comment from Family First?
Vintage electoral machinery (wooden hinged screens) seen at auction house. Not sure AEC would be wanting these back in a hurry.
ALP vs ON shadow-2PP tracking graph here (tracking line is simply moving average of last 10). The three on the right are more like the pre-Budget Jan-May band than post-Budget.
A close historic three-cornered contest in my own seat I hadn't been aware of: Michael Townley after missing preselection ran as an independent Liberal and missed the 2CP and victory by 234 votes after preferences. Later elected to Senate. #politas
The fixed chart. In general there are issues with people online paying too much attention to breakdowns given small subsample sizes, but also this kind of error isn't super rare, if you see something that looks too weird to be true, it possibly is.
Oh no, Witch Mode (TM) has been enabled again and tonight I (white, black to move) won (in appalling time trouble too) from this ridiculously lost position. Anyone with any shame would just resign this.
This from the Greens website ... sheesh. The Greens were so strongly against the MLPS that one of their own Senators tried to have the High Court prevent it. Now their website is saying that was good, we should do it again.
Latest instalment in the endless series of dubious #ResolvePM issue questions, this one re coal-fired power plants.
Aside from the revised version still failing to note that this is *not* surprising, given that so many transferred votes came via the Greens and that those were not all 1 Greens votes, in Reynell the figure was 27%, closer to a quarter than a third.
But of course I'm still blocked. This is a pathetic nonapology; they should be apologising explicitly to both DemosAU and Redbridge for the false slurs against their polls and stating what changes in editorial policy they have made to prevent a recurrence.
Debatable. SA-B well out from the election polled 32% in one Newspoll with n=800, 28.5% in a Morgan, no other public polls above 24.
In typical dishonest and shambolic Independent Australia style they've corrected an error in the woeful AI slop level article attributed to "journalism PhD" Jason Foster but the correction is even more false and misleading than the original.