Leah Berman Williams

@leahwrenn

Mathematician (discrete geometry), U Alaska Fairbanks prof, former FNSB assembly. In Alaska since 2009. She/her/hers. @Leahwrenn@mastodon.social @leahwrenn on MeFi

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Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 2d

Here’s the list of all the recognized parties (>=5000 members) and groups. www.elections.alaska.gov/research/sta...

Party Codes

Code Name Status
S Alaskan Party Active
C Alaska Constitution Party Active
D Alaska Democratic Party Active
G Green Party of Alaska Active
I Reform Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Party Active
J Prohibition Party Active
L Alaska Libertarian Party Active
M Conservative Party USA Active
N Nonpartisan Active
Q Alaska Neighbors Party Active
R Alaska Republican Party Active
U Undeclared Active
V Veteran’s Party of Alaska Active
W UCES’ Clown Party Active
Y The Future Generation Party Active
Z American Party of Alaska Active

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 4d

Whoever "Fair Deal Alaska" is, they're spending a lot of money. My kid was complaining she's been getting a ton of pro-Hafner YouTube ads, too.

Text message supporting Carol Hafner.

[Image: picture of a white lady. Yellow background with blue text boxes.
Carol Hafner
A progressive fighter who won't let us down.]

PAID FOR BY FAIR DEAL ALASKA
WWW.FAIRDEALALASKA.COM

Alaskans are ready for real change.

𝐀𝐬 𝐚 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫, 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐥 𝐇𝐚𝐟𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐰𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐭 𝐮𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧:

☑️ Ban Drilling in ANWR
☑️ Abolish ICE
☑️ No Funding for Israel’s Military

Vote for Carol Hafner in the primary election on August 18th!

Reply STOP to stop

From phone number 907-560-1655

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 4d

Nice talk this morning from @alaskawx.bsky.social I hadn’t realized that March was legit unusually cold, just that it seemed like spring was never going to come…

Talk slide

Round Two: March
Coldest on record
• Fairbanks (Airport)
• Delta Junction & Tok
• Denali National Park HQ
Anchorage & Glennallen
Dawson & Whitehorse, YT

Talk slide

Fairbanks ice fog
Falrbanks, Alaska (Airport), 1959-60 to 2025-26
Hours with Very Low Visibility in Ice Fog
• Ice fog=fog made of ice crystals not water droplets
• At temps below -30°F/-35°C
• Low horizontal visibility even when sky visible
• Driving hazard
• Dense ice fog uncommon in recent years

Bar chart with very few bars to the right

Talk slide

Winter temperatures in Interior Alaska
• Strong valley based inversions

Map of the interior with a lot of color=temperature gradations as elevation changes
Arrege tempres
are very frequent
• Cold air pools at lowest elevations
• Temperature increases with height
• December & January monthly average temps 8 to 12°F lower in the Fairbanks bowl than surrounding hills

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 5d

I can literally just screen cap the entire quiz and paste it into Claude. Claude's like, no problem, let me do this for you. AAAAAAH. On the other hand the answer to (c) is wrong, so I guess there's that. (actually, problem (c) is written slightly imprecisely, we meant min# for plurality.)

Screen cap of my first quiz problem. Claude starts off saying "This is the same problem we already worked through — here's the full set of answers together:" and then provides the answers, with supporting work.

OTOH the answer to (c) is WRONG.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 5d

Math object of the day: The Grünbaum-Rigby (21_4) configuration. 21 points, 21 lines, 4 lines through each point, 4 points on each line, 3 symmetry classes of points and lines each. Combinatorially, this configuration is flag-transitive: each vtx/line pair can be mapped to any other such pair.

A configuration of points and lines with 21 points, 21 lines, 4 points on each line, 4 lines through each point, with points and lines colored in rings of red, blue, green.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 5d

So I just gave Claude the first quiz question for my 100-level Math and Society quiz, including screen-capping and pasting in the voting preference schedule that was part of the quiz. I ABSOLUTELY cannot count on my online students doing their own work—or on my catching it if they're using AI.

Question: The student government is holding elections for president. There are four candi-
dates (A,B,C and D for convenience). The preference schedule is below.
For each of the following, provide supporting calculations.
(a) How many voters voted in this election?
How many voters are needed for a majority?
How many votes are needed for a plurality?
Find a winner under the plurality method. Show some work
Did the winner under the plurality method also win a majority?
[partially obscured screen cap of a preference schedule]

Assembled electoral analysis framework for plurality voting method

Assembled electoral analysis framework for plurality voting method
(a) Setting Up the Election
Total number of voters:
Add up all the columns:
80 + 90 + 60 + 130 + 40 = 400 voters
Votes needed for a majority:
A majority requires more than half of the votes.
Half of 400 = 200, so a majority requires:
200 + 1 = 201 votes

Votes needed for a plurality:
Plurality just means having more first-place votes than any other single candidate — there's no fixed number required. A candidate could win with a plurality using anywhere from just over 100 votes (if evenly split) up to all 400, depending on how the others split the vote. So there is no set number of votes needed — the winner is simply whoever gets the most 1st-place votes.
Finding the plurality winner:
Tally up the 1st-choice votes for each candidate:
Candidate Columns with 1st-place votes Total 1st-place votes
A 80 80
B 90 + 60 150
C 40 40
D 130 130
Check: 80 + 150 + 40 + 130 = 400 ✓ (matches total voters)

Plurality winner: Candidate B, with 150 first-place votes — more than any other candidate.
Did B also win a majority?
B received 150 votes. A majority requires 201 votes.
Since 150 < 201, B did NOT win a majority — B only won a plurality (the most votes), not a majority (more than half the votes).
---
Do you think the plurality winner in part (d) represents the will of the voters? Explain
why or why not in a sentence.
---
No — B is actually the last choice of 210 voters (the 80 who ranked A first and the 130 who ranked D first), so a majority of voters view B as their worst option even though B wins the plurality, meaning the plurality result doesn't truly reflect the overall will of the voters.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 8d

Interesting mailers I got today. From “Fair Deal Alaska” trying to get folks to support Carol Hagner over Mary Peltola. Their website has no information at all. Carol Hafner is neither Alaskan nor a credible candidate. fairdealalaska.com

Flyer 1

CAROL HAFNER
A BOLD PROGRESSIVE WHO'LL FIGHT FOR
ALASKA
Carol Hafner is a former labor officer in the National Education Association and action taker on behalf of workers across many sectors. She understands more than most the strain many families are facing.
Carol can be trusted to fight Trump and the MAGA
Republicans and advance bold, progressive policies that create a fairer future for working class Alaskans.
No Half Measures - Medicare for All Now
Combat the Climate Crisis with the Green New Deal
End Military Aide for Israel - Remain Militarily Neutral
Abolish ICE - End Detention of Refugees
VOTE CAROL HAFNER

Flyer 2

MARY PELTOLA
BETRAYING PROGRESSIVES.
SIDING WITH TRUMP'S AGENDA.
Mary Peltola's Own Words on Trump:
"there will be a lot of common ground"
(Alaska Public Media, 7/23/24)
Mary Peltola cannot be trusted.
She is the type of politician who is
Voted to Fund ICE
more interested in gaining power in
X Advocated
Expanding Drilling
Washington than she is in defending our values.
in ANWR
Mary Peltola's own words tie her to
Allowed Funding
supporting the Trump Agenda. But
to Arm Israel's
even worse, so does her voting record.
Military
MARY PELTOLA
SIMPLY CAN'T BE TRUSTED!
CAROL HAFNER
A PROGRESSIVE FIGHTER WHO WON'T LET US DOWN!
Ban Drilling in ANWR
• Abolish ICE
No Funding for Israel's Military
VOTE PROGRESSIVE
CAROL HAFNER FOR U.S. SENATE PRIMARY ELECTION ON AUGUST 18™

VOTE CAROL HAFNER
FOR U.S. SENATE

PAID FOR BY FAIR DEAL ALASKA. NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. WWW.FAIRDEALALASKA.COM

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 9d

Oooh, I preordered a book, and it just magically appeared! If you're not reading Robert Jackson Bennett's @robertjbennett.bsky.social Ana & Din series, you should be. They're inventive and funny. And no one is stupid. The first one is "The Tainted Cup". So good. books.apple.com/us/book/the-...

START READING
Your pre-order of A Trade of Blood is available now. Dive In.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 9d

"Do you believe Joe Biden won the presidential election in 2020?" It is depressing that 3 governor candidates (18%) outright said they don't think Biden won the 2020 election, and another 3 strongly implied it (18%). Bill Walker answered it best: "Yes. Why are we still talking about this?"

2020 election
Do you believe Joe Biden won the presidential election in 2020?

TOM BEGICH (D)
Yes. Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. That is a fact, not a matter of opinion, and Alaskans deserve a governor who deals in facts.

CLICK BISHOP (R)
Yes.

DAVE BRONSON (R)
Candidate declined to answer question.

ADAM CRUM (R)
I wasn't on the ballot in 2020, and Joe Biden won't be on the ballot for governor this year. I am. If you want to know where I stand, ask me about Alaska. That's what this election is about.

EDNA DEVRIES (R)
Let the evidence come forth — very concerning.

MEDA DEWITT (I)
Yes. Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. Democracy depends on respecting verified election results, strengthening election security, and ensuring voters can trust transparent, well-run elections.

MICHAEL GILBERT (R)
HELL NO. And it was 2019.

MATT HEILALA (R)
Yes, Biden's win was legally certified, but did he win the right way? Americans witnessed unprecedented chaos, last-minute rule changes, media bias and verified issues like over 300,000 improperly cured ballots in Fulton County, Georgia, that were counted in violation of Georgia election law. That level of mess just reinforces the need for simpler, more transparent elections.

SHELLEY HUGHES (R)
Yes, Biden served a term. At same time, many have concerns about election integrity, best addressed through transparency, accountability and voter-confidence measures. Serious election integrity concerns have been on both sides of the aisle for decades. Questions about irregularities, mail-in ballot processes and suppression of information remain unresolved for many. My running mate, retired Gen. Blake Gettys, has been studying this issue and is ready to make some commonsense adjustments.

JONATHAN KREISS-TOMKINS (D)
Yes.

HENRY F. "HANK" KROLL (R)
No.

LESIL MCGUIRE (R)
Yes.

JAMES W. PARKIN IV (R)
Yes.

DESTRY J. PAYNE SR. (I)
NO!!

TREG TAYLOR (R)
Candidate declined to answer questions.

BILL WALKER (I)
Yes. Why are we still talking about this?

BERNADETTE WILSON (R)
Did not respond

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 9d

Not sure what to make of this forecast. I can pretty well guarantee that a democrat will not be elected to congress from Alaska. But that doesn’t mean a republican will win—or even that I believe their forecasts are connected to reality, if they don’t know about the details of the race.

Screenshot of the FiftyPlusOne forecast for Alaska, showing Republican 82 out of 100
Democrat 18 out of 100

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 9d

A little smoky and rainy this morning.

77 air quality this morning. Screenshot shows orange spikes each of the last th few mornings.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 10d

Smoky again this morning. Not too bad, but definitely noticeable.

Screenshot showing 65/unhealthy for sensitive groups

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 11d

Yes it has! The sweet smell of Alaskan summer. Not too bad, but definitely noticeable. Not showing up much on my purple air though.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

In case you're wondering what the crappy poll/survey is, it's "Sarah from Clear Insights"

Hi Leah! This is Sarah with Clear Insights. We're conducting a short survey on issues important to residents of Fairbanks. A few minutes of your time will make a difference. Survey: https://clearinsights.co/RgAwwaHP STOP to Optout

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

As of a week or so, I no longer can check "yes" to do I have any minor children living with me. Yikes!

Do you have children under the age of 18 living in your household?
Yes
No

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Interesting demographic question here at the end, about labor unions.

Do you or does any member of your household belong to a labor union?
Yes, self
Yes, other in household
Yes, both self and other in household
No

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

I'm kinda fascinated that "read the newspaper" doesn't even make this list.

Which of the following would you say you do multiple times a week? Please select all that apply.
Listen to podcasts
Listen to the radio
Watch news, sports or shows on major TV networks like ABC, CBS, or NBC
Watch videos online
Stream shows over the internet on a laptop, tablet, a smart TV or a connected device.
None of the above

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

This one legit makes me happier to vote for him. "...every federal campaign donation [Bill Hill] has ever made went to politicians who support banning the most commonly owned rifle in America — Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez."

Bill Hill claims to be a strong supporter of the Second Amendment, but every federal campaign donation he has ever made went to politicians who support banning the most commonly owned rifle in America — Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Much More Likely
Somewhat More Likely
Somewhat Less Likely
Much Less Likely
No Impact

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Such a bad poll. Not sure what it's accomplishing. "Bill Hill called ICE an institution that serves fear, derision, murder, and the targeting of minorities, said “hell yes” when asked if limits should be placed on ICE, and wants to slash ICE’s border enforcement funding." Sounds good to me!

Bill Hill called ICE an institution that serves fear, derision, murder, and the targeting of minorities, said “hell yes” when asked if limits should be placed on ICE, and wants to slash ICE’s border enforcement funding.
Much More Likely
Somewhat More Likely
Somewhat Less Likely
Much Less Likely
No Impact

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Oooh scary. Now we're linking Bill Hill to Zohran Mamdani. "three-quarters of his campaign money comes from outside Alaska" —well, maybe we all need to vote Yes on One in the primary to limit the size of campaign donations.

Bill Hill campaigns against billionaires buying our government, but three-quarters of his campaign money comes from outside Alaska — including tens of thousands of dollars from left-wing billionaires and mega-donors, like the biggest funder of the super PAC behind New York City’s socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Much More Likely
Somewhat More Likely
Somewhat Less Likely
Much Less Likely
No Impact

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Next question is something unclear about health insurers. I don't believe that Nick Begich is actually going to vote to get health insurance problems under control—and there are many problems!—but I'm sure he'll vote to cut access to benefits.

All other things being equal, which of the following candidates for Congress would you be MOST likely to vote for?
A Republican candidate who wants to force big health insurers to publicly disclose their profits, the percentage of claims denied, and average wait times for their patients for routine care.
...OR...
An Independent candidate who refuses to hold health insurers accountable and will just keep lining insurers’ pockets with hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars.
Don’t Know

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Oh come on. Now we're introducing trans panic? I have to say, this "independent" candidate who's supporting "allowing the use of taxpayer dollars for gender transition surgery for minors" is sounding better and better, although I don't think this is Bill Hill's position (although I hope it is).

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Heck yeah, I'm for the candidate who wants to stop building big data centers! Especially in AK given our energy costs! ...we're losing the "arms race" with China because we stopped prioritizing renewable energy / batteries / solar / EV / etc. Not where/whether we're building data centers.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

It keeps getting "better" = more of a push poll. "which...would you be MOST likely to vote for? A Republican candidate who wants to cut taxes for working people. ...OR... An Independent candidate who is for a $4 trillion tax hike, which would have raised taxes on nearly 90% of Americans."

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 12d

Why can't I be on a survey list that is *not* obviously a republican push-poll, at its heart? I answer the phone, I click on text links....I'm your survey gal! But I'm annoyed at the clear republican skew in these polls.

All other things being equal, which of the following candidates for Congress would you be MOST likely to vote for?
[ ] A Republican candidate who is committed to holding criminals accountable for defrauding taxpayers of billions of dollars.
...OR...
[ ] An Independent candidate who refuses to do anything to stop the epidemic of fraud.
[ ] Don’t Know

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 13d

I'm trying dipping my toe back into Facebook, because there's so much local stuff I'm missing. (It's hard, though, because how do you see recent stuff?) Anyway, stolen from friends on Facebook: Fairbanks, come out to Ester Park on Monday August 10 to meet some local candidates! #alaskasky

Our Local Slate
Olivia Karns, Marna Sanford, and Savannah Fletcher invite you to join us at ester park to meet the candidates that we are suporting

Where
Ester Community Park
When
August 10 2026 5:30 PM
What
A one-stop show to meet community focused candidates

FNSB School Board
Tim Doran
Bobby Burgess
Sean Holland

FNSB Assembly
Alexis Howell, Scott Crass, Nick LaJiness

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 13d

More professional scams: today somebody'd like me to join the editorial board of a statistics journal. Algebraist was at least in the same very broad field. Statistician isn't even close.

Dear Dr. LEAH WRENN BERMAN,

I hope you are doing well. I just wanted to follow up regarding the invitation to join the Editorial Board of “Axis Journal of Mathematical Statistics and Modelling ISSN: 3142-9912”.

We truly value your expertise and would be delighted to have you on board. Kindly let us know if you are interested and, if so, share your CV, passport-sized photo, and professional details at your convenience.

Looking forward to your response.

Best regards,
Luis Gabrielli

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 14d

Turns out, it wasn’t my fault I didn’t know. The other three voters in my house got their notices today of the change! I don’t know what happened to my postcard.

Three pink postcards from the Alaska division of elections saying the location of the Geist precinct has changed.

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 14d

I always vote early, so I hadn’t noticed that my polling place had changed! Still in a church, but now Presbyterian not Baptist

Leah Berman Williams@leahwrenn· 14d

I clicked through, because I thought surely I was missing something. Nope!