Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman
International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.
Remember the public uproar over "Critical Race Theory" or "CRT"? That was at the direction of a propagandist. Then notice how outrage over CRT disappeared, and now there's outrage over DEI? Same group of propagandists thought "CRT" wasn't working. Organic, informed public opinion? Give me a break.
Maybe someone restored that monkey from an old monkey, but didn't have the ability to recreate it as it was?
Great example of NY Times sanewashing Trump. No, the issue is not clarifying which ships have made it through Hormuz. He was lying. The claim that oil was "flowing like never before" is false. At most, fewer than half the pre-war volume got out. One small example of a much larger phenomenon.
Why are you making up something to argue against and directing it at me?
Graph of oil prices over the last 6 months. Arrow 1 (March/April): Oh no, the Strait of Hormuz might still be blocked in the summer, that would be bad! Arrow 2 (June/July): The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked in summer, there's no end in sight, and it's fine.
The lies keep degrading. And they didn't start with much plausibility or coherence. Hormuz is open because we bombed them last night. (That's a big part of why it's closed.) They agreed to a deal yesterday. (They weren't talking, they were bombing, and the MOU didn't have Iranian concessions)
Also, @peark.es, the part about rate of release I got from DoE FAQ's (www.energy.gov/hgeo/opr/spr...) They mention 1 million per day can go steadily for 1.5 years, but also say the president can surge it up to 4.4 million per day, at the expense of losing the ability to release that much in 90 days.
Serious question: Does the president not know what’s in the deal he made with Iran? There are no nuclear concessions in the MOU Trump signed. He is a serial liar and would overstate any gains, but on top of that, there’s a live possibility Vance/Kushner/Witkoff lied to him that they got side deals.
Published in 2008, in the premier journal International Security. (This is far from the only mention, but it's a prominent one from 18 years ago, in a place a lot of national security professionals would see—you know, the experts the Trump White House disdain, fired, and/or willfully ignore.)
American Dad (photo taken at the annual July 4th 5k race in Champaign-Urbana, IL)
Ships are again going through the Strait of Hormuz by a route that hugs Oman without registering with Iran, Al Jazeera reports. That prompted Iranian fire at a ship last week, and set off another round of US-Iran shooting. If this shipping corridor continues, then the IRGC doesn't control Hormuz.
MAGA really is a movement for ethnic cleansing. Lying about law and history to overturn birthright citizenship makes it plain. As do calls for "remigration." The counterargument is that these voters didn't want what their signs called for, and don't feel about it what their facial expressions show.
The US did not have to agree to this. They could have negotiated different language, making ceasefire commitments without accepting "refrain from the threat" in the document too. The president and his representatives said yes and officially signed it. That was a choice. One that has helped Iran.
The left ceded all notions of patriotism to the right? I saw that and didn't get it. Then I remembered the same person's assertion scolding everyone that they have to be on X because that's where persuading regular people happens, and it made more sense. Sometimes the timeline delivers.
<tapping sign> (screenshot from: www.arcdigital.media/p/the-us-ira...)
That's my sense of it too. The provisions regarding Lebanon create leverage for Iran. They can highlight it or willfully ignore it, whichever serves their interests at the moment. From: www.arcdigital.media/p/the-us-ira...
News: The physical basis of the global economy is facing major disruption, which is growing by the day. Wall St: Meh, fine. Buy, buy, buy! News: The Federal Reserve might raise interest rates later this year. Wall St: Good God, our borrowing costs might go up 0.25%. A travesty! Sell, sell, sell!
The Trump regime's plan to sell their surrender to Iran is apparently to insist the surrender language in the surrender document they're signing doesn't really count because there's a secret non-surrender side deal, an understanding separate from the Memorandum of Understanding. Can we see it? No.
No way G7 leaders actually believe Trump displayed "strong leadership" or secured a "breakthrough" with Iran or created a "historic opportunity" to prevent Iran from getting nukes. Desperate for the war to end, so apparently the plan is to praise literally anything that ends it, lying as necessary.
Van Hollen cites Gaza—which he calls a genocide—Israeli settler violence, and apartheid conditions as reasons the US should cut support for Israel. A principled argument. But I doubt this will make Israel go "fine, let's do a Palestinian state," rather than double-down while seeking arms elsewhere.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen calls for the next Democrat-led US govt to withdraw financial support for Israel and condition arms sales. That'd be a real, impactful change. Then he runs into the same problem: assuming away obstacles. Palestinians have free and fair elections. OK. Hamas says no. Then what?
And... we're back to threats. The cycle of: 1) Threats 2) Lies of an imminent peace deal 3) Positive media coverage for that 4) Evidence of no deal, and nowhere close to Iran making concessions 5) Pretending not to care about a deal he transparently wants 6) Threats Took about three days this time
In the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, US stock markets and the broader economy declined most after the embargo was lifted. Iran war disruption to energy markets is larger. The economic impacts not only won't disappear when Hormuz opens, they're going to get worse. Graph from: www.ms.now/opinion/trum...
How is "strikes pummel" and "killing medics" and "paramedics killed a day earlier" a "truce"? Why does the New York Times think the words "truce" or "ceasefire" apply to such a situation? How much military force does it take to move from a truce that is "fragile" to no truce?
Question: Why is the US, the world's premier military power, failing so badly in a war on weaker Iran that the US started? Answer: Maybe one reason is it's led by someone whose idea of a war strategy is pretending that Iran will become part of America in an effort to thrill his domestic followers.
Trump is blockading Iran To squeeze Iran's economy While Iran evades US economic sanctions via Binance A crypto exchange founded by Changpeng Zhao Who was in prison for money laundering that bypassed US sanctions Until Trump pardoned him After Binance partnered with Trump's crypto currency company