Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy. Explore our research: piie.com
Denmark's economic growth has generally surpassed US growth since before COVID. Since 2020, Denmark has run a cumulative general government fiscal surplus of 18.6% of GDP (positive net lending), while the US has run a general government deficit of 53.8% of GDP. #PIIECharts
Given unpredictable tariff policy shifts, US corporate executives could be expected to discuss policy changes in their quarterly earnings calls. Analysis shows corporate mentions of Trump's tariffs in earnings calls spiked in spring 2025. Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
NEW: US tariffs have failed to significantly reduce US dependence on Chinese goods & services. 💡China's share of bilateral US imports fell by 7 percentage points from 2017-24 while China's share of value-added in US imports fell just 2 percentage points. Read more here: www.piie.com/publications...
The private sector's share of China's 100 largest listed companies by market value continued to grow in 2026, reaching 41% by mid-year. #PIIECharts Notably, of those 100 companies, 27 had never appeared on the list before. Learn more here: www.piie.com/research/pii...
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The Trump admin has declined to renew the USMCA. It remains in force, but should the agreement end, states face varying risk of losses. 9/10 states with the highest share of exports to Canada & Mexico as a share of the state's total exports voted for Trump in 2024. #PIIECharts
Since the start of the 21st century, China's value-added export share has grown much larger than its labor-force share, suggesting that China is exporting goods that could otherwise be made in poorer economies where increased manufacturing could support tens of millions of jobs. #PIIECharts
The Trump admin has made deals called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) with trading partners to adjust tariffs for some concessions. But the ARTs have mechanisms the US may use to control supply chains beyond its borders—& depth & stringency of commitments vary. #PIIECharts
NEW: If oil prices stay around $120/barrel + sharp rises in LNG, refined petroleum, & fertilizer prices for a year, global growth would slow, with economic effects spread unevenly. Emerging economies would be hit harder than advanced economies. #PIIECharts
📖Pre-order the book: simonandschuster.com/books/How-to... 📺Join us for the book launch: piie.com/events/2026/...
NEW: The pattern of declining overdose deaths, after peaking during the Biden administration, calls into question the role of tariffs imposed on China for its role in fentanyl trade by the current Trump administration, Marcus Noland writes. Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
US population growth slowed in 2025, particularly in urban counties, because immigration fell. Read more by @jedkolko.bsky.social: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The global economic expansion is set to continue, but the range of possible outcomes has widened. Underlying forces—especially the AI-driven investment cycle—continue to support growth, but the Iran war has introduced new risks. #PIIECharts
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard discusses this & more at our April 15 event on the realities of economic security: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
🌸IT'S SPRING MEETINGS TIME!🌸 We kick things off with our semiannual Global Economic Prospects event on April 9, then join us April 14-17 for high-level panels & discussions on the euro, AI, trade, & more. Find all event info & register to watch here: www.piie.com/events/sprin...
Q: Can tariffs replace income taxes? A: Absolutely not. Hear it straight from @kclausing.bsky.social:
NOW: @kclausing.bsky.social is speaking at @whitehouse.senate.gov's Environment and Public Works Committee spotlight forum on the many ways climate change is contributing to the affordability crisis. Read her prepared remarks: www.piie.com/commentary/t... Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/oegvS1R...
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
NEW: US exports to China have fallen sharply, largely due to Trump's trade wars, combined with China's economic problems & policies. Without Trump’s trade wars since 2017, US exports to China would have been ~60% higher in 2025. Learn more from @chadpbown.com: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
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The "reciprocal" tariff rates penalize countries that use more intermediate inputs from other countries in their exported products. More here: www.piie.com/research/pii...
NOW: Conference examining the the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19, exploring supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, fiscal & monetary policy, & more. Watch: https://www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-inflation-outbreak-40-years-conference-distilling-lessons-covid-era
On February 6, we're holding a conference on lessons from COVID-19 inflation. Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/... Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
The private sector's share of the top 100 listed Chinese companies by market value grew to 40% in the second half of 2025, driven by high-profile technology firms amid China's artificial intelligence boom. #PIIECharts
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5% Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9% Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4% Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5% #PIIECharts
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UPDATED: As of September 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $179 billion, contributing just 9.6% of the projected federal budget deficit. Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...