Robert Armstrong
@robarmstrong
US Financial Commentator, Financial Times. Opinions mine, unfortunately. The pursuit of pleasure is hard work.
Warsh's ban on forward guidance is a legitimate policy choice. The problem is that his chosen justification for it is absolute nonsense.
Wall Street consensus estimates for hyperscaler free cash flow. Provides a good snapshot of where the market's head is at, I think:
I have said, repeatedly, that in war Trump will not be able to Taco. This headline suggests I could be wrong. Holy crow.
I welcome this new regime of disciplining economists who do demostrably terrible work
Whatever you may have read in the LAMESTREAM media, inflation DID NOT cool in January. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Unhedged chart of the week: the very vertical Beveridge curve -- can it last? @hakyungkim.bsky.social Sign up here: www.ft.com/newsletter-s...
If you look at private employment only, and exclude health care, you can see how un-dynamic the job market has been since mid-2024. But you can also see a clear upward trend since October.
Good recent report from Barclays yesterday taking apart the very wrong K-Shaped economy narrative. US consumption HAS NOT become more unequal or skewed toward the rich lately. Everyone please stop talking about this.
Does warsh think there is a stronger correlation between the Fed balance sheet (blue) and inflation (green) than between the balance sheet and the Fed Funds rate (orange)?
Regime change occurred in US stock markets back on October 29. The last are now first.
The Fed and markets have a very serious problem ft.com/content/21b5...
Also my new friend Amelia is just follwoing me becasue she shares my interest in the yield curve and stuff:
A little story about the Treasury secretary, Frankling the Turtle, and Treasury prices as.ft.com/r/6e764b13-d...
@clarkelife.bsky.social bought this on the street near the FT's New York office. It's been a weird year.
Happy veteran's day. Too small to see in the picture below: my dad, who was aboard, and safe thanks to his follow sailors. Thanks vets!
If the aministration's strategy on the econopmy is to lie about it, American's are going notice and get pissed off. People see food prices. Try something else.