And finally, here's public sector monthly PAYE employment changes for comparison.

For context, here's monthly change in PAYE employment in some of those more struggling sectors. (I've cut off the axis for pandemic extremes to make it easier to see changes outside that). They were adding 20k jobs a month during early 2010s, more like 10k 2015-20, losing jobs last couple of years.

Out of interest, here's LFS (data quality caveat) estimates of quarterly changes in public and private sector employment over the last two years. Private sector falls driven by e.g. retail & hospitality. Employment rate overall broadly flat, propped up by health & social care growth.

For some reason the graphs posted as a black background. So let's try them again!

4. All of which is to say. You can reduce working age welfare as % of GDP. But to do this sustainably you'll likely need to spend more initially (bad news for fiscal rules). And to take things in the round: DWP can't cut welfare spending sustainably on its own, without causing people real problems.

2. Definitions & eligibility change so this chart is indicative at best. But rise in disability & incapacity £(to an extent natural in an ageing society) may not meet need well (see Timms Review) & incapacity benefits don't often offer help to find work even to those who want it.

Relatively flat labour market stats today, with wider surveys like REC's indicating stabilisation / modest improvement ahead. But bigger picture for our new PM is another 2.1m people needed in work to hit 80% emp rate target, 1m young people NEET, and pay £260 per week below financial crisis trends.

We're on track for c10% fewer adults gaining English & maths quals in England this year. Largely due to Govt removing it from apprenticeships for those 19+. Longer term, numbers have halved since 2013-14. A problem given 9m adults have low literacy or numeracy & these skills matter for so much.

This one might be a bit more legible.

New charts off the production line for testing (formatting to be improved). On Centre for Cities definition of primary urban areas) here's 2025 employment rates. Bubbles = size of population. Can see the dispersion (note, axis doesn't start at 0). Not many above Govt's 80% employment rate target.

2. Maybe things get better at 18? Not so much. Or young people are doing other forms of education? Unfortunately not. We're spending more on apprenticeships in England but fewer young people are doing them.

Have a look at this chart showing % of young people doing apprenticeships. It's gone from low to very low. The Govt's right to say it wants to 'pivot' the system more toward them (up to age 24, this chart is 16-17). But will need to do more.

2. The other worry is the 1m+ young people not in education, employment & training. Following Milburn Review, these data show 1 in 3 young people who are not in FT education are not in work either. Some will be in PT education, but not huge numbers. Chart shows emp rate of 16-24s not in FT education

1. Labour market is fairly flat overall, with some falls in employment and vacancies. But worrying below the headlines. 220k fewer people work in retail & hospitality than 2 years ago, contrasting to rise of 90k in health and social work.

4. Better news: 1 in 3 of those who joined earliest have started work. Not all will sustain work, but this seems broadly in line with what you'd expect from similar programmes. So, fair to say Connect to Work has been very slow getting up & running but getting going & doing OK for those on board?

New stats seems to show the Government's Connect to Work programme, to help disabled people into work, has only helped half as many people as it expected in January. Decent results for those on it, but there's not enough on it. I say seems to, as it's so far off maybe I'm wrong. But I can't see how.

Our research found 1 in 2 NEETs not on benefits. But how many have a job lined up v how many are at risk of detachment? The Milburn Review helps answer. Of the 315k 'hidden NEETs' they identify, 71k are on a gap year or waiting to start a course or job. Suggests 244k (75%) are most potential concern

3. A quick point on 16-17 year olds. 84k in this group are NEET. Makes it even more nonsensical that the Govt won't pay FE colleges in England for all the young people who want to sign up for courses, leaving colleges delivering learning for free & turning people away. www.aoc.co.uk/news-campaig...

2. Here's the picture by gender. Caveats about LFS quality, but young men do now seem to have higher NEET rates than young women, reversing the previous picture. Gaps had been narrowing since at least mid 2000s, likely part of wider trends in education and work participation etc.

Alarm bells ringing as more than one million young people are now NEET, the highest rates (5.1% for 16-17s, 15.8% for 18-24s) since 2013. The twin challenges of a tougher labour market & disjointed & underfunded support services need tackling urgently.

Meantime, with the Milburn Review due to report soon, some 1.3m 16-24 year olds are not in employment or full-time education (not same as NEET rate which is any education). That's 18% and rising. Giving the long-term harm being out of work & education does when young, this is a major, urgent issue.

A flat set of labour market stats. May be calm before the storm if the international crisis persists. Big picture: c500k fewer people in work than if employment rate was at its pre-pandemic level. Challenge: LFS uncertainty + often big revisions to April's PAYE data (90k, 170k, 265k in past 3yrs)!

This is, as ever, great from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com. I'd add 1st, job-to-job moves & sector changes shocked down after the financial crisis, part I think of general stagnation thereafter. 2nd low voluntary quits likely partly related to limited other opps - firing not up, but hiring definitely down.

Chart that tells a story from @learnworkuk.bsky.social labour market briefing. Biggest employment falls in private sector like retail & hospitality. Growth concentrated in public sector, like health & public admin. Usual caveats about data, but suggestive of weak momentum heading into current crisis

Same. (Or, at least, half right).

New data for 1st half of 25-26 shows 15% drop in adults doing English & maths in FE, due to Govt dropping it in apprenticeships. Achievements have halved since 2010. Reminder: 9m adults in England have low literacy or numeracy. Current trends, 25 years+ to help all. Harms inclusion & productivity.

At risk of overextending the data. Here's the pp change in a year in unemployment rates by sector last worked in. Basically, biggest rises are those who previously worked in professional roles, transport & storage, hospitality, construction & manufacturing.

One thing I didn't mention earlier. While employment's fairly flat overall, most of the growth is in more public sector areas like health & social care. More private sector areas like retail, hospitality & manufacturing have been falling. Another warning sign. Full briefing below.

2. Particularly concerning is that number of young people not in employment or FT education remains stubbornly stuck at 1.25m. Govt announcements earlier this week will help, but mostly targeted at the 1 in 4 NEETs on unemployment benefits. Need to do more to help the other 3 in 4.

1. Fairly flat set of labour market stats today. Some further easing, including in earnings growth, but any falls seem much smaller than pre-Christmas data. This leaves underlying challenges, like needing another 2m people in work to hit Govt 80% employment rate target. And economic risks ahead.