Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf

Contributor @the-downballot.com. Elections, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

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Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 5d

Missouri SoS Denny Hoskins refused to certify a ballot measure to protect the initiative/referendum process from subversion—in addition to blocking a referendum on the new GOP gerrymander. Supporters will sue—if both made the ballot and passed, the GOP could be unable to re-pass their map in 2027

Their plan, spearheaded by a group called Respect Missouri Voters, would amend the state constitution to make the ability to bring initiatives and referendums a “fundamental right” and bar lawmakers from weakening either of these powers.

It would further prevent the legislature from repealing or modifying laws passed by initiative, or repassing laws rejected via referendum, unless a four-fifths supermajority in both chambers agrees.

In addition, it would enshrine the current requirements for the signatures necessary to place a measure on the ballot and would also affirm that only a simple statewide majority is required to approve an initiative or referendum. Lastly, it would allow the courts to rewrite misleading summary statements drafted by elected officials.

Republicans in Missouri have long sought to tamper with the initiative process to [image cuts off]

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 6d

The change in responses over time is telling us something with this question, but precisely what? Gerrymandering and the VRA’s demise have received unprecedented media coverage this cycle, and there’s no way to disentangle thinking that’s unfair from thinking Trump will somehow throw out votes 🤷‍♂️

Pew Research Center stacked bar chart titled "Confidence in the fairness and accuracy of elections is lower than in past years, but with no partisan gap." Subtitle: percent who are blank confident that the elections this November will be conducted fairly and accurately. Each bar stacks "very" confident (dark gold, bottom) and "somewhat" confident (light gold, top), with the net total labeled above. Three panels show Total, Republicans and Republican leaners, and Democrats and Democratic leaners, each across four survey dates.

Total: April 2020, net 59 (14 very, 45 somewhat); August 2022, net 64 (25, 39); July 2024, net 61 (24, 37); July 2026, net 55 (15, 40).

Republican/lean Republican: April 2020, net 75 (20 very, 55 somewhat); August 2022, net 46 (12, 34); July 2024, net 47 (11, 36); July 2026, net 55 (13, 42).

Democrat/lean Democrat: April 2020, net 46 (9 very, 37 somewhat); August 2022, net 81 (37, 43); July 2024, net 77 (39, 38); July 2026, net 58 (18, 39).

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted July 6–12, 2026.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 6d

Kansas is the only red state where Democratic appointees are a majority on the state Supreme Court, and it will stay that way for years to come after voters rejected this GOP power grab in a landslide. Kansas voters have repeatedly rejected Republican attempts to ban abortion since the Dobbs ruling

New York Times election results graphic for Kansas's Amendment 1. Explanatory text notes the measure, introduced by Republicans frustrated by the appointed court's support of abortion rights, seeks to overhaul how Kansas Supreme Court justices are selected. If passed, the seven justices would no longer be appointed by the governor and would instead be elected to six-year terms.

Latest results from 6:01 AM ET, with more than 95% of votes in, from AP. "No" is marked with a check as the winner, with 375,355 votes, or 61.3%. "Yes" has 236,800 votes, or 38.7%. Total reported: 612,155.

Below, a county map of Kansas shades results from teal for Yes to orange for No, with the darkest shades indicating margins of 70% or more. Topeka and Wichita are labeled. The map is closely divided county by county, with teal and orange counties interspersed across the state; most shading on both sides is in the lighter, roughly 60-percent range. Teal predominates somewhat in the western half. The darkest orange counties, at 70% or more for No, cluster in the northeast around and east of Topeka. Sedgwick County, containing Wichita, is shaded orange.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 6d

Missouri Republicans tried to make voter-initiated constitutional amendments impossible by requiring passage in every congressional district instead of just statewide. Voters rejected the amendment in not just every congressional district but every county too. Trump won all but four counties there

New York Times election results graphic for Missouri's Amendment 4. "No" is marked with a check as the winner, with 1,123,264 votes, or 80.3%. "Yes" has 275,157 votes, or 19.7%. Total reported: 1,398,421.

Below, a county map of Missouri shades results from teal for Yes to orange for No, with the darkest shades indicating margins of 70% or more. Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield are labeled. Every county is shaded orange for No, and no county is teal. The great majority are at the darkest orange level of 70% or more, including all counties around Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield. A cluster of lighter-orange counties in the 60-percent range appears in the northeast, with a few scattered lighter counties in the south-central and southeastern parts of the state.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 7d

Missouri Republicans' Amendment 4 is getting trounced not just in every congressional district but in every *county* so far. Trump won all but four counties in Missouri.

Screenshot of a New York Times 2026 election results page titled "Missouri Amendment 4 Election Results: Modify Amendment Approval Requirements." A description notes the measure, proposed by the Republican-led legislature, would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to win in each of the state's eight congressional districts rather than by a simple statewide majority.

With 23% of votes in (AP data), "No" leads with 277,388 votes, or 81.1%, and is marked with a check indicating it is winning. "Yes" has 64,711 votes, or 18.9%. Total reported: 342,099.

A "Results by county" table lists: St. Louis County, 85% No / 15% Yes, 82,026 total votes, 30% in; St. Charles, 79/21, 30,809, 20% in; Platte, 80/20, 18,648, 77% in; Buchanan, 82/18, 15,852, more than 95% in; St. Louis City, 90/10, 15,826, 22% in; Clay, 82/18, 15,613, 21% in.

At right, a map of Missouri shades counties by result, with Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield labeled. Reporting counties are shaded orange for No, most at the darkest shade of 70% or more; no counties are shaded teal for Yes. Counties without results are gray, covering much of the state.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 7d

Dems could redraw these House maps for 2028: MD: On 2026 ballot. NY: Passed part 1 of multi-year plan. VA: Could reverse 2026 court ruling. IL: Considering. NJ: Reportedly unlikely. MN, OR, WI: May depend on 2026 elections. A court could redraw WI instead www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...

Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in:

Illinois: 1
Maryland: 1
Minnesota: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Virginia: 4
Wisconsin: 3
Total: 18

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 7d

NEW: Maryland Democrats just passed a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 in response to Republican gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters pass it in November, Democrats could enact a map like this earlier proposal to target the lone Republican, Andy Harris

Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488.

The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population.

All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 7d

Some New Jersey Democrats still don’t get what’s at stake with Trump and Republicans pushing extreme gerrymanders on the whole country. Unilaterally disarming won’t save democracy when gerrymandering requires a national solution

“New Jersey wins elections the old-fashioned way: We earn it,” said Democratic state Sen. Andrew Zwicker, showing his age by doing his best impression of actor John Houseman in 1980s ads for Smith Barney.
And Rutgers Law School professor Ronald Chen, who’s been involved in congressional and state legislative redistricting, said he doesn’t think gerrymandering is a good way to advance his own progressive politics. Chen was counsel to redistricting tiebreaker John Farmer Jr. in 2011, when Farmer chose a Republican-drawn map that put two Democratic incumbents together and led to the 2012 election of an evenly split House delegation. Six years later, under that same map, the delegation went 11-1 in Democrats’ favor.
“It just goes to show with a little bit of patience, things will work out,” Chen said. “Once you change it, the temptation will be to tinker again. And then, eventually, even in New Jersey, the other party will get into control of the Legislature and all bets are off.”

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 14d

In North Carolina’s Supreme Court election, Democratic Justice Anita Earls has an enormous fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Sarah Stevens www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

NC Supreme Court

Democratic Justice Anita Earls continues to enjoy a staggering financial advantage over Republican challenger Sarah Stevens in an important race for the North Carolina Supreme Court, newly released campaign fundraising reports show.

Earls, who is seeking a second eight-year term, hauled in about $1.9 million from Feb. 15 to June 30 and ended this four-and-a-half-month period with $3.5 million banked. Stevens, who resigned from the state House last month to focus on her campaign, took in just over $90,000 and had a little less than $260,000 on hand.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 15d

They are www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

MT-Sen

In an unusual public statement, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it would not support Democrat Alani Bankhead’s campaign for Senate in Montana after Bankhead slammed the committee in an op-ed.

Earlier this month, Bankhead decried “the absolute lack of support or even encouragement from my national Democratic colleagues” at the DSCC in a guest essay at the Flathead Beacon.

In response, the group’s executive director, Devan Barber, told Semafor that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Some Montana Democrats, most notably former Sen. Jon Tester, have called for the

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· 18d

The path for Trump was paved by Nixon in more ways than one

A picture of Richard Nixon with a quote from during his 1960 presidential campaign: “I always remember that whatever I have done in the past or may do in the future, Duke University is responsible in one way or another.”

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 9

Republicans will re-gerrymander more maps for 2028 and could make the House nearly unwinnable for Dems as shown on this chart of potential map scenarios. However, Dems could counteract them by redrawing these 8 states, which we examined with hypothetical maps: www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...

Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Downballot. For each redistricting scenario, columns show the median district, presidential margin, and number of seats carried by the Democratic nominee out of 435 total. Calculations separately show the the 2024 and 2020 presidential results.

National Popular Vote: 2024 margin -1.5 (R+1.5); 2020 margin +4.5 (D+4.5).

2022 Actual Map: median district CA-40; 2024 margin -2.3, 207 seats won; 2020 median MI-08, margin +2.0, 226 seats won.

2024 Actual Map: median AZ-01; 2024 margin -3.1, 205 seats; 2020 median VA-02, margin +1.9, 224 seats.

2026 Actual Map: median VA-01; 2024 margin -4.9, 200 seats; 2020 median AZ-06, margin +0.1, 218 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New GOP maps only: median ME-02; 2024 margin -9.1, 192 seats; 2020 median IA-01, margin -2.9, 208 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maximalist GOP maps only: median FL-22; 2024 margin -10.3, 185 seats; 2020 median IN-01, margin -4.4, 201 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maps from both parties: median OH-01; 2024 margin -2.6, 210 seats; 2020 median AZ-01, margin +1.5, 222 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maps from both, maximalist GOP: median MI-10; 2024 margin -6.5, 203 seats; 2020 median MI-10, margin -1.0, 215 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maximalist maps from both parties: median PA-07; 2024 margin -3.2, 208 seats; 2020 median MI-07, margin +0.5, 220 seats.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 9

This map shows the partisan intent behind congressional redistricting in every state for 2026. Republicans drew 44% of seats to Democrats’ 26%. That gap is narrower than in 2024 thanks to CA Dems, but the 2026 map is more pro-GOP in effect because they passed more extreme maps in several red states

A cartogram from The Downballot showing the partisan intent behind 2026 congressional redistricting in every state. States retain their general shapes and relative locations on the map, but they are sized according to how many congressional seats they have and are spread out from each other accordingly.

26% of districts are in blue-colored states drawn to favor Democrats.
44% of districts are in red-colored states drawn to favor Republicans.
29% of districts are in yellow-colored states drawn by neutral parties.
1% of districts are in gray-colored states with only a single district each.

Each state by seat count and favored party:
Alabama: 7 - Republican
Alaska: 1 - One Seat
Arizona: 9 - Neutral
Arkansas: 4 - Republican
California: 52 - Democratic
Colorado: 8 - Neutral
Connecticut: 5 - Neutral
Delaware: 1 - One Seat
Florida: 28 - Republican
Georgia: 14 - Republican
Hawaii: 2 - Neutral
Idaho: 2 - Neutral
Illinois: 17 - Democratic
Indiana: 9 - Republican
Iowa: 4 - Neutral
Kansas: 4 - Republican
Kentucky: 6 - Republican
Louisiana: 6 - Republican
Maine: 2 - Neutral
Maryland: 8 - Democratic
Massachusetts: 9 - Democratic
Michigan: 13 - Neutral
Minnesota: 8 - Neutral
Mississippi: 4 - Republican
Missouri: 8 - Republican
Montana: 2 - Neutral
Nebraska: 3 - Republican
Nevada: 4 - Democratic
New Hampshire: 2 - Neutral
New Jersey: 12 - Democratic
New Mexico: 3 - Democratic
New York: 26 - Neutral
North Carolina: 14 - Republican
North Dakota: 1 - One Seat
Ohio: 15 - Republican
Oklahoma: 5 - Republican
Oregon: 6 - Democratic
Pennsylvania: 17 - Neutral
Rhode Island: 2 - Democratic
South Carolina: 7 - Republican
South Dakota: 1 - One Seat
Tennessee: 9 - Republican
Texas: 38 - Republican
Utah: 4 - Neutral
Vermont: 1 - One Seat
Virginia: 11 - Neutral
Washington: 10 - Neutral
West Virginia: 2 - Republican
Wisconsin: 8 - Republican
Wyoming: 1 - One Seat

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 9

At Trump’s urging & with the Supreme Court’s blessing, Republicans re-gerrymandered 8 states to target 16 Dems. 11 targets hold VRA seats, are Black or Latino, or both. CA Dems targeted 5 Rs in response, but a court blocked VA Dems from targeting 4. A UT court replaced a GOP map with a fairer one

Map showing which states redrew their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted.

Republicans targeted 16 Democrats in:
Alabama: 1
Florida: 4
Louisiana: 1
Missouri: 1
North Carolina: 1
Ohio: 2
Tennessee: 1
Texas: 5

11 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both.

Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there.

In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 9

Thanks to Republican gerrymandering, Trump almost would have won a majority of the new 2026 districts in *2020* when he lost the popular vote by 4.5 points. Biden would have won just a 218-217 majority and the median seat (AZ-06) by 0.1 points, down from 224-11 and 1.9 points (VA-02) on the old map

Map of the 2020 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Joe Biden. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points.

Biden would have won a 218-to-217 majority of districts and carried the median district by 0.1 points, placing it 4.4 points to the right of his national margin of 4.5 points.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 9

NEW 🧵: We mapped our 2024 presidential election data by congressional district for the 2026 map. Due to new GOP gerrymanders, the median seat went from AZ-01 at Trump+3.1 on the 2024 map to VA-01 at Trump+4.9, 3.5 points to the right of the country. Trump won a 235-200 majority, up by 5 from 2024

Map of the 2024 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Kamala Harris. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points.

Trump would have won a 235-to-200 majority of districts and carried the median district by 4.9 points, placing it 3.5 points to the right of his national margin of 1.5 points after rounding.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 7

Maryland Democrats are moving forward with redrawing their congressional map for 2028 to target the state’s lone Republican in response to GOP gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters approve a constitutional amendment in November, Dems could enact their earlier proposal for this 8-0 map or one like it

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 3

Finally nailed it on the fourth try

New York Times dialect quiz result map. The most similar is North Carolina and Virginia, with some similarity with the broader Northeastern and Southeastern United States. The least similar is the Midwest and northwest.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 2

With nearly all votes in, Sen. John Hickenlooper won his primary just 53-47. This got far less attention than the left’s outright wins, but it’s historically bad for an incumbent. Only two Dem senators since 1972 have lost renomination to challengers to their left, & he massively outspent Gonzales

New York Times election results summary for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales by just 53-47 with nearly all votes counted.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 2

“… to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, —That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government …”

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 2

The Declaration of Independence specifies 27 grievances with King George III and Britain. Donald Trump and his regime have committed at least 20 of those same offenses highlighted in yellow. Happy 250, America!

An image of a list of the 27 grievances against King George III in the Declaration of Independence. Donald Trump's regime has committed at least 20 of them in whole or in part, condensed into the list below:
1. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
2. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation …
3. He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing … his invasions on the rights of the people.
4. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; … obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners …
5. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice …
6. He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices …
7. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
8. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
9. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
10. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution … giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
11. For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
12. For protecting them … from punishment for any Murders which they should commit …
13. For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
14. For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
15. For depriving us … of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
16. For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
17. For … abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
18. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
19. He has … destroyed the lives of our people.
20. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us …

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 1

Sen. John Hickenlooper’s primary margin is down to 7 points with roughly 92% of votes in. It was 15 last night. That’s very weak given his massive spending advantage over Gonzales and his longtime prominence in Colorado politics. One has to wonder if progressive groups missed a major opportunity

New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads by 53.6% to 46.4% with an estimated 92% of votes reported.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 1

Hickenlooper’s lead has shrunk to just 55-45 as late-counted ballots in Colorado typically favor progressives. Gonzales kept it impressively close for a challenger who got into the race late and faced a massive spending disadvantage against a senator and former governor who had history on his side

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jul 1

Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper holds off progressive Julie Gonzales, but a 57-43 margin is historically weak for an incumbent and former two-term governor. Since 1972, only 2 senators who had been elected as Democrats lost primaries to challengers clearly to their left. Those were in 2006 and 1992

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 29

Colorado’s Supreme Court has blocked Dems’ 2026 attempt to pass this 7-1 congressional map for 2028 and target 3 GOP seats. Now the soonest they could redraw the map is 2030. Dems could try another initiative or, if they gain 2/3 majorities this year, put an amendment directly on the ballot in 2028

Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district.

The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 9

@davesredist.bsky.social has launched a major update to its UI, with new and improved features for drawing, analyzing, and visualizing redistricting maps. One of those new features enables drawing maps on mobile devices (depending on their capabilities). Check it out here: davesredistricting.org

Introducing our New User Experience
We've been working on a new modern look and streamlined workflow for Dave's Redistricting. This new version supports all the old features you are familiar with, plus it adds some new features for building and drawing maps.

[Image of the website’s new dashboard page, which shows a U.S. state map and menu bars along the top and left sides of the page.]

When you open DRA 2020, look for About New UI on the top bar. You can try out the new UI and switch back and forth easily; when you switch you'll stay on the same page and all your maps, datasets and layers will be there in both.

Key features and improvements of the new UI:
* Cleaner look.
* Improved navigation.
* Much improved layout and experience on phones and tablets.
* Touch painting works on mobile devices.
* Support for dark mode.
* Customization of precinct, district, city and county line styles.
* Search and pin districts in the Districts overview panel.
* Color county and city aggregates by partisan lean and demographics.
* Customization of district label size, color and position.

Be sure to check out the tours (flag in upper right) of My Maps and Map View!

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 3

New Republican gerrymanders in 2026 moved the median House seat from Trump+3.1 to Trump+4.9, and they plan to redraw more maps in 2028. The GOP could make the median Trump+9.1 or worse, but if Dems respond in these states, they could cut the GOP’s advantage to less than it was in 2026 or even 2024

Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Down Ballot. It compares seven redistricting scenarios across two sets of columns: 2024 presidential results and 2020 presidential results. Each set shows the median district's Democratic-minus-Republican margin and the number of congressional districts won by the Democratic presidential candidate. Cells with Republican-favoring margins are shaded pink, with deeper shading for larger margins; cells with Democratic-favoring margins are shaded light blue.

The national popular vote’s Democratic margin was −1.5 in 2024 and +4.5 in 2020.

For each scenario, the median district margin and how many districts the Democratic presidential nominee won are as follows:
2024 actual map: −3.1 margin; 205 districts won in 2024 / +1.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202026 actual map: −4.9 margin; 200 districts won in 2024 / +0.1 margin; 218 districts won in 20202028 new GOP maps only: −9.1 margin; 192 districts won in 2024 / −2.9 margin; 208 districts won in 20202028 maximalist GOP maps only: −10.5 margin; 185 districts won in 2024 / −4.4 margin; 201 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both parties: −1.8 margin; 213 districts won in 2024 / +2.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both, maximalist GOP: −5.2 margin; 206 districts won in 2024 / −0.2 margin; 217 districts won in 20202028 new maximalist maps from both parties: −2.6 margin; 211 districts won in 2024 / +1.5 margin; 222 districts won in 2020

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 3

This borders on a straw man and conflates the maps’ impact with going from a lean-GOP year to a strong-Dem one. The relevant comparison isn’t how many seats were competitive in 2024 but how many would have been in 2026 without new maps. The GOP’s main goal is electing more Rs, and it likely will

It is possible that the enthusiasts will be vindicated, and Republicans will win every “safe” seat they have created, but there are good reasons to be skeptical of the claim that the recent aggressive gerrymanders will reduce the number of competitive districts in 2026. In fact, in the 6 states conducting mid-decade redistricting, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted only 3 seats in 2024 but is now targeting 13.

The aspiration of aggressive gerrymandering is to eliminate competitive districts, but this can be difficult to achieve in practice. Despite intense polarization, vote choice and turnout are still volatile in some slices of the electorate, and large swings are still possible. Past statewide results are sometimes surprisingly poor predictors of outcomes in congressional races.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 3

Rep. Shomari Figures, one of Alabama's two Black Dems, says he will run again despite the new gerrymander. Republicans flipped his 2nd District from plurality Black and Harris+8 to majority white and Trump+14, making it very hard to win in a very racially polarized area mynbc15.com/news/local/f...

Image comparing Alabama's court-drawn 2024 congressional map with Republicans' new 6-1 congressional gerrymander that would eliminate one of the two Black Democrats to elect another Republican in a majority-white district. The 2024 map is on the left and the GOP's new map is on the right, with charts in between them showing the 2024 presidential election results and racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the presidential winner's margin, with Kamala Harris seats in blue and Donald Trump districts in red.

The 2024 map grouped Black voters in Birmingham and the western Black Belt in the 7th District and placed Black voters in Mobile, Montgomery, and Mobile into the 2nd District. Both districts are predominantly Black and voted for Harris by comfortable margins, while Trump won five solidly red seats. The new map removes Mobile from the 2nd District and adds other areas to make it majority-white and safely Republican.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf· Jun 3

With the Supreme Court's Alabama ruling, the national House map is likely set for 2026. Republicans targeted 16 Dem seats—11 were Voting Rights Act seats, have Black or Latino Dems, or both. The median seat shifts from Trump+3.1 to +4.9. But Dems can fight back and target many Republicans in 2028