So I guess Iran is just holding on until oil supply reaches crisis levels?

My working assumption had been that Assad-era frameworks like Decree 66 and Law 10 were also meant to incentivize private investment in reconstruction, in the absence of other funding sources – creating similarly perverse incentives: x.com/AbuJamajem/s...

Have you considered claiming the referee was “feloul” or Hizbullah, totally baselessly You know, to enflame social tensions

Fun gym selfie for event on child exploitation

Useful @syriatransition.bsky.social update from northeast Syria's Qamishli on integration of SDF and linked institutions: www.syriaintransition.com/en/home/arch... Notes how residents, when control shifted earlier this year, suddenly found themselves governed by a very different economic model.

Wrote a little about this for @securityincontext.bsky.social last year: tadweenpublishing.com/products/ins... Don't think we can count on most politicians to actually believe things, on Palestine or anything else; rather, we have to structure political incentives for them to act right.

Extremely positive that changed popular sentiment on Palestine has so restructured incentives for U.S. politicians that representatives who haven’t had some sincere pro-Palestine conversion, and likely don’t have strong convictions on the issue, think they should vote like this.

Claims that Iran is using Hizbullah as leverage on Israel/U.S. (e.g., warontherocks.com/going-over-t...) strike me as perverse, and backwards. Since March 2, Iran seems to have *expended other leverage* for Hizbullah/Lebanon, not exploited Lebanon to improve its negotiating position. 1/4

What are businesspeople considering investing in Syria supposed to make of a government carrying out extensive, extrajudicial seizures of private enterprises; and inviting investors, reportedly, to partner with the entity that controls this portfolio of expropriated assets? x.com/azelin/statu...

In seriousness, it would not surprise me if Israel and the United States are demanding the Lebanese army partially demolish these towns ("destroy or render inoperable associated infrastructure, including… tunnels, and command centers") in "pilot zones" beyond the current line of Israeli control.

These Americans too stupid to properly negotiate with

Malpractice that Damascus still hasn’t convened this new parliament. For investment and a host of other national priorities, Syria needs laws – a clear, stable legal regime, not this confusing mix of pre-2024 legislation and new executive decrees. x.com/heidipett/st...

Seems like a politician taking AIPAC support or espousing AIPAC-approved positions is a useful litmus test because it indicates that politician either a) believes in nothing; or b) believes terrible things. x.com/dylanotes/st...

Reading Western media growing up, there was always a story about Israel’s new, most extreme political leader – Lieberman, Bennett, etc. Now Israel has produced politicians like Ben Gvir who are even more freakish. Netanyahu, of course, has just been a constant. Country seems bad!

Little reason to be excited that Syria is now U.S.-aligned, other than the hope that the United States will no longer use its unique sanctions power to crush Syria's economy and people: x.com/humanprovinc...

U.S. sanctions are almost entirely politicized; the ostensible substantive basis is basically irrelevant. Good to see the Trump administration removing the SST designation from Syria, which is too fragile economically and socially to suffer continued U.S. sanctions.

Today I learned this doof is Graham Platner's stepbrother, thank you @diplomatofnight.com

"There should be a greater role for a reformed Palestinian Authority in Gaza"– even when Biden alumni attempt reflection, they think in terms of U.S./Israeli control over Palestinians. Palestinians deserve to be free. Anyone who still wants to subjugate them should go in the 🗑️ x.com/mideastXmidw...

Tlaib’s district includes Dearborn and many Lebanese-Americans who, I think, are probably not well-represented by the groups that dominate the Lebanon debate in Washington – good to have her representing her constituents in Washington, and also saying true things. x.com/elissa_hache...

Think any debate on precise language of U.S.-Iran MoU is less relevant than whether Iran has the leverage/will to force the United States to conform to Iran’s clear intent – Israeli withdrawal – instead of Washington’s present bad-faith reading. x.com/noenicholas/...

President Aoun remarks to visiting delegations Friday make clear he is still counting on the United States to enforce Israeli cooperation: www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/news/5502... My piece from May on why that is ill-advised: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

Includes a quote from, purportedly, "a senior Lebanese diplomat involved in the negotiations":

Elizabeth Tsurkov article for Israel Hayom – in which she says Israel should exit Lebanon but resume nationwide assassinations and force Lebanese gov't to purge pro-Hizb officials – says she conducted field research in Lebanon for her Princeton thesis: www.israelhayom.co.il/news/world-n...

Missed this last month: Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor said he wasn't planning new Syria projects because he wants to avoid partnerships, after past negative experiences. x.com/KhalafAlHabt...

Continued Hizbullah commitment to ceasefire agreed by U.S. and Iran likely enhances Iranian credibility and reinforces centrality of U.S.-Iran diplomatic track, but also puts Hizbullah in awkward position of holding back as Israelis again step up attacks in south Lebanon:

Seems a little 🤔 that the Syrian Sovereign Fund website professes a commitment to "transparency" but seems to include no information on fund leadership or financials: www.ssf.gov.sy

Under-reported element of U.S.-Israel-Lebanon framework agreement – overshadowed by its other sovereignty-negating provisions – is that the U.S. intends to supervise the reconstruction of south Lebanon, to deny any potential benefit to Hizbullah: www.state.gov/releases/off...

What do the U.S. and Israel want the Lebanese army to do in a place like this, is the Lebanese army supposed to bulldoze and explode Lebanese citizens' homes? www.youtube.com/watch?v=grNn...

Israeli military continues to advertise strikes on purported Hizbullah targets outside “security zone” now legitimated by Lebanese government, claiming it is preempting threat to occupying Israeli forces:

حديثي للصحفية هديل الروابدة حول احتمال التدخل السوري العسكري في لبنان وطرح الرئيس ترامب المتكرر لتولي الرئيس السوري مهمة قتال حزب الله: noq6a.com/fawasel/%D8%...