Ivan Moore
@alaskasurvey
Recovered political operative. Pollster. Science is everything. 🇬🇧Football is called football because you hit the ball with your feet. Fan of intemperate and unrestrained language. Opinions my own.
Final Round (2 candidates): Begich/Hnilicka 50.9% Wilson/Shower 49.1% Begich wins by 2 pts! Again, this is consistent with every survey we've done prior. The field is jostling and competing, but Begich has led pretty much throughout. Next survey goes into the field next week! 🧵FIN
Q: Rank the following candidates for Alaska Governor in the numerical order of your preference. You do not need to rank all the candidates. Click only one box in each row and in each column. Here are the RCV results, starting with Round 1... 🧵8/13
But there’s still six weeks to go until the primary, so plenty of time for candidates to make their moves! OK, how does the RCV General look? Based on information we’d gotten from prior surveys, we ran the RCV starting with six candidates... 🧵6/13
Here are the Top 6... Tom Begich (D) – Julia Hnilicka (D) 19.7% Bernadette Wilson (R) – Michael Shower (R) 14.6% Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) – Zac Johnson (N) 12.2% Dave Bronson (R) – Josh Church (R) 10.9% Bill Walker (N) – Randy Hoffbeck (N) 9.4% Click Bishop (R) – Greta Schuerch (N) 9.3% 🧵4/13
Q (cont): The race question below lists the Governor and Lt Governor candidates together, Governor first. If the election was held today, which of the following candidates do you think you would vote for Governor and Lt Governor? Results as follows... (DRUMROLL) 🧵3/13
BREAKING: Tom Begich continues to lead in AK Governor’s race! Begich has led consistently in every single Governor survey ASR has done. Alaska Survey Research June 30th - July 1st, 2026 N=1,649 Alaska adults, 1,528 RV MOE (RV): +2.7% Methodology: Text-to-online & ASR Survey Panel 🧵1/13
After the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal of the $5.8 million judgment that Trump must pay to E. Jean Carroll, the case has now run out of further opportunities for appeal. Except to FIFA, of course, which Trump plans to file forthwith.
So the sitting around, swilling beer and manspreading… what’s that all about? It’s a curious image. I’m not sure exactly what quality it’s selling.
Briefly visited X to see what was happening. Saw this nonsense. I’m back now.
Good morning! It’s the day Trump signs a deal with the Iranians! He said so! At last it’s here, thank goodness.
…but couldn’t fly home because his pregnant mother was deemed unsafe to fly by the airline. So he was born here. Now, 24 years later, he’s scoring goals for the US National team. This is exactly the person that fat, orange asshole Donald Trump doesn’t think should qualify to be an American.
The United States men’s national team beat Paraguay 4-1 yesterday in the World Cup. They played brilliantly. Their star player, Jerry Balogun, scored two great goals. Balogun was born in New York in 2001. His parents were both Nigerian and were visiting the US from their home in London…
Now, in our new survey... Mary Peltola 49.4% (+5.2%) Dan Sullivan 44.2% Gerald Heikes 3.7% Dustin Darden 2.7% The race is heating up, but there's no sign of weakness yet from Mary. She's even inching ever closer to hitting the 50% mark in the first round. Next survey at the end of June! FIN 🧵
Q: Rank the following candidates for US Senate in the numerical order of your preference. Back in the last survey May 14-17... Mary Peltola 48.4% (+4.6%) Dan Sullivan 43.8% Dustin Darden 5.1% Gerald Heikes 2.7% This result was consistent with numerous other surveys, dating back to 2025. 2/3 🧵
BREAKING: NEW ALASKA SENATE NUMBERS! Mary Peltola extends her lead over Dan Sullivan to over 5 points in the US Senate general election race! Alaska Survey Research June 4-7, 2026 N=1,393 Likely Alaska voters MOE: +/-3.0% Methodology: Text-to-online + ASR Survey Panel 1/3 🧵
First sitting US President to have a damn good snooze at an NBA Finals game. 💤😴
#20 - Jewel Kilcher (1974-) Singer-songwriter, author, actress, advocate for youth mental health. Went big time in 1995 with "Pieces of You", selling 13 million copies. Founded the Inspiring Children Foundation in 1999. "Happiness is a skill that can be learned." 23/39 🧵
#19 - Dan Sullivan (1964-) Ohioan by birth, attorney, Marine Corps colonel. Served as Alaska Attorney General and as Commissioner of Natural Resources under Governor Sean Parnell. US Senator for Alaska since 2015. "The Arctic is Alaska, and Alaska is America's Arctic." 22/39 🧵
#18 - Vic Fischer (1924-2023) Planner, educator, delegate to the 1955 Alaska Constitutional Convention, Territorial House Representative 1957-1959, State Senator 1981-1987. Architect of modern Alaska. "Democracy is not a spectator sport." 21/39 🧵
#17 - Kikkan Randall (1982-) Cross-country skier, five-time Olympian, cancer survivor, health advocate. First woman to win a gold medal in cross-country skiing (Team sprint - 2018 Pyongyang). "Dream big, work hard, and surround yourself with people who believe in you." 20/39 🧵
#16 - Hobo Jim (1952-2022) Prolific Alaskan folk singer-songwriter, known as the "Balladeer of the Last Frontier". Particularly admired for his bravery in facing his end of life. "I would like to say I am not afraid. I have never feared death as I am good with my Lord." 19/39 🧵
#15 - Sarah Palin (1964-) Mayor of Wasilla, Governor of Alaska 2006-2009. Tapped by Senator John McCain to be his Vice-President nominee in 2008. Lost, and then quit as Governor in 2009. Ghost wrote some books. "You can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska." 18/39 🧵
#14 - Bill Egan (1914-1984) Mayor of Valdez, Territorial House Representative & Senator 1946-1959. Elected first Governor of Alaska 1959-1966 and again in 1970-1974. Advocated for passage of the Alaska Statehood Act in 1958. "The strength of Alaska lies in its people." 17/39 🧵
#13 - William Seward (1801-1872) Honorary Alaskan. Governor of New York 1839-1842, US Senator 1849-1861, US Secretary of State 1861-1869. Counseled Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg. Negotiated the purchase of Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million. "The North is the future!" 16/39 🧵