Great #COSPAR2026 conference week in (hot) Florence, Italy, with 2 invited talks by Emma Davies and Christian Möstl, on the observations of #solarstorms between the Sun and Earth, their large scale magnetic structure, which we need to understand for better forecasts, and future @esa.int missions!

The expected shock and slow #solarstorm arrived on 2026 Aug 2 11:29 UT, there is a potential for high latitude #aurora in the upcoming hours but at a speed of only 400 km/s and a field of 15 nT no other impacts are expected.

On late Thursday 30 July 2026 there was a strong solar storm eruption to about 45° west of Earth (M1.9 flare, speed 1240 km/s), for which we expect minor 🌍 impacts given its main direction away from Earth. The arrival is predicted for late Saturday August 1 to early Sunday Aug 2 by forecast models.

The current solar wind clearly shows a South-West flux rope magnetic field that is likely to turn Northward now, for a SWN rope that is right handed. This usually arises from the southern hemisphere but the main eruption was on late June 30 in the northern hemisphere, so some discrepancy here.

The 2nd strongest geomagnetic storm of the year 2026 is currently underway (Dst -158 nT), caused by presumably 2 #solarstorm eruptions on June 30 / July 2. The southward field is recovering from -18 nT to -5 nT, speed is 600 km/s. Likely the storm subsides by evening in Europe, but lets see!

Here is our ELEvo model run, with the solar storm in question being the fast front propagating towards 🌍 (green dot in the left plot). Parker Solar Probe and Bepi Colombo may observe it too. Another slow solar storm is currently sweeping over Earth, but no geomagnetic storm has developed.

Very picturesque sequence of ☀️ events: first a comet diving into the Sun, then a solar storm erupting on late Tue June 30 (X1.1 flare at N17° W18°). This storm is clearly northward directed, but may lead to high-latitude #aurora. 🌍 Arrival time (ELEvo): Thu July 2 18:57 ± 6 hours, speed ~750 km/s

As predicted by solar rotation - which is very reliable 😉 - there are several very big sunspots now at disk center, however, they are largely non-eruptive so far. They make a great target for solar telescopes or projections of the solar disk. ‼️ Always use proper equipment when viewing the ☀️!

A big active region, which has so far not been very productive with eruptions, is now rotating into view on the southern hemisphere. In about 4-5 days (Monday 29 June / Tuesday 30 June) it will face the Earth, but we need to see whether it will become more eruptive until then.

Whats really amazing in these ISS #aurora images - here is a zoom into one of the pictures above - is the switch from green to red in height, both related to oxygen emission.

There was only a borderline moderate geomagnetic storm on June 5-6 2026, with a Dst geomagnetic index minimum of -60 nT and a Newell coupling (a parameter to quantify the solar wind - magnetosphere connection) of 3.6 times the mean value. Still way enough for a great high-latitude #aurora show!

#solarstorm modeling results - our ELEvo model predicts an arrival at Earth of the solar storm from yesterday at June 8, 02:41 UTC (+/- 5.9 hours). We will monitor the situation and provide updates as new data comes in. 💫#spaceweather

Update - An interplanetary shock has arrived at Earth around 04:30 UT. In situ data shows a complex structure, likely due to interaction with a preceding #CME (arrival around 2:30 UT). Bz is intermittently turning southward, Dst remains positive (for now). We're watching closely 👀

#solarstorm modeling results - our ELEvo model predicts arrivals at Earth of solar storms from yesterday between June 4, 23:18 UTC, and June 5, 2:23 UTC (+/- 6h). We will monitor the situation and provide updates as new data comes in. 💫#SpaceWeather

Impressions from #EGU26 last week in Vienna, with our presentations on @esa.int sub-L1 future mission concepts for #spaceweather, an improved understanding of #solarstorm evolution driven by multipoint in situ observations, hybrid modeling for #solarstorm forecasts and 3D flux rope modeling! ☀️💥

We will be around at @egu.eu in Vienna / Austria May 4-8 and present our work on sub-L1 monitors led by @chrisoutofspace.bsky.social, @spacedavies.bsky.social and Eva Weiler, and a hybrid AI+physics pipeline (NEXUS) by @hannahruedisser.bsky.social, already useable on current L1 data. #EGU2026

#solarstorm update - an interplanetary shock (likely associated with the Apr 1 CME) has arrived at L1 with a speed of ~800 km/s. The total magnetic field remains <15 nT, and Dst shows no significant response so far. We'll continue to monitor and provide updates if conditions change 🌤️ #SpaceWeather

#solarstorm alert - another large partial halo CME was observed on Apr 1 (~23:45 UTC), following a C-class flare. The ejecta is directed mostly northwest, so no direct hit is expected. Our ELEvo model predicts a possible flank encounter tonight (Apr 3) around 23:00 UTC. 🌤️ #SpaceWeather

#solarstorm update — the CME-driven shock arrived at Earth at ~11:30 UTC on Apr 1, significantly later than predicted. Likely a flank encounter: L1 solar wind measurements show total magnetic field strength <15 nT with a speed of ~500 km/s, resulting in no significant disturbances 😴 #SpaceWeather

#solarstorm modeling results - our ELEvo model predicts arrival at Earth of the large solar storm from earlier today around 12:17 UTC (±6.17h) on Mar 31. We continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new data comes in. 💫 #SpaceWeather

#solarstorm alert 💥 - Following today's X1.4 flare (peak ~03:21 UTC, Mar 30), LASCO C3 reveals a large halo CME with an initial speed of ~1845 km/s. The eruption is directed slightly east of the Sun–Earth line. We're keeping a close eye on this one!

Faint red aurora are currently visible from Zugspitze in southern Germany. credit: foto-webcam.eu

Two flux ropes have been detected at L1, with the second one carrying a more southward-oriented magnetic field (current Bz −10 nT, Btot 13 nT). For now, conditions remain quiet (Dst: +30 nT), but additional CMEs are expected, which could lead to some geomagnetic activity in the coming hours. 💫

Our automatic CME detection tool STRUDL (Bauer+2025) has caught a nice, slow event in STEREO/HI beacon data that is currently on its way towards Earth. It is predicted to arrive within the next few hours (19 March, 17:00 UT). ☀️

There is still more #polarlights in Austria visible on webcams, as there is fast #solarwind with weak magnetic fields pointing southward. May not last the whole night and the show will not be as strong as yesterday for sure, but there is some extra #aurora for today! www.raxalpe.com/aktuelles-te...

It is unclear at the moment whether #aurora will also be visible at mid-latitudes in the the coming night from Tue Jan 20 to Wed Jan 21. The storm is slowly subsiding though, sustained only by high speed wind (800 km/s) and small Bz <0, with a magnitude of only around -8 nT.

Earth has largely exited the #solarstorm but the geomagnetic storm is still ongoing as there is high speed solar wind and magnetic field Bz < 0 in the back of the storm. The geomagnetic Dst index is now -235 nT which finally makes it the 3rd strongest storm of this cycle in terms of Dst.

As crazy as it sounds, in terms of Dst this is only the 6th strongest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 25 so far (min -169 nT currently, might go down a bit more). Although it was the fastest and strongest in terms of solar wind magnetic field, the field orientation Bz >0 was actually not favorable!

We are situated in Graz #Austria and this is the view from the Schöckl mountain on Jan 19 2026 23:00 CEST. #spaceweather #aurora #polarlights