Local public education employment has been falling steadily for several months. So this doesn't look like it's *just* a seasonal quirk, even if the 50k decline is exaggerated.

July's job losses were driven in part by a 50,000-job decline in public school employment. That smacks of a potential seasonal adjustment issue because local education is *extremely* seasonal, and quirks in the school year can mess with the adjustment. HOWEVER...

So much for the World Cup hiring bump people were expecting. The leisure and hospitality sector wound up *cutting* more than 80,000 jobs in June and July combined.

Meanwhile, after a brief period of revisions edging ever so slightly into positive territory, they've swung negative again.

Some tentative good news for Brett Matsumoto, assuming he is confirmed: The share of businesses responding to the payroll survey in time for the preliminary estimate has been edging up. No real pickup in household survey response rates, though.

Hourly earnings were basically flat in July. Wage growth continues to slow on a year-over-year and three-month basis. Not good news for workers at a time when inflation is proving stubborn.

Prime-age (25-54) labor force participation ticked up in July, but not by nearly enough to reverse the sharp decline in June. At this point, hard to say whether the outlier is the June drop, or the strong months that preceded it.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent, and has now been at 4.5 percent or below for 58 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. (The previous record was 57 months in the late '60s into 1970.)

The July drop was partly driven by a big decline in public school employment, which could be a quirk of seasonal adjustment. But private-sector job growth has also slowed to a crawl.

Employers cut jobs in July, and job growth was revised down for May and June. Net result is that the pop in hiring that we saw earlier this year now seems to have largely evaporated. We've now averaged just +20,000 jobs/month over the past three months. #NumbersDay

Layoffs *have* risen sharply in Information. They've also edged up in professional and business services, though not to a historically high level. Layoffs in finance are low and trending down.

Still no sign of a broad-based pickup in layoffs. The layoff rate remains below its prepandemic level (which was itself low) and is basically holding steady.

The hiring rate has stabilized at a bit below its prepandemic level. Maybe you can squint and see some recent pickup but it's very modest.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has ticked back over 1:1. Suggests that (in the aggregate) it has gotten a bit easier to find a job, though still nothing like the "Great Resignation" heyday of 2021-22.

Job openings ticked down in June after jumping in May. But the bigger picture is that openings have stabilized and may even have begun to pick back up. #NumbersDay

The A.I. boom shows up clearly in the data. Investment in data centers and information processing equipment are soaring. But the impact on GDP is limited because so much of that equipment is being imported.

Consumer spending accelerated in Q2 despite high oil prices. Business investment was strong yet again, driven by A.I.-related capital spending.

Economic growth slowed unexpectedly in the first quarter. But the numbers look stronger under the hood -- spending and investment were strong, offset by weakness in volatile inventory and trade components. #NumbersDay

Long-term yields spiking post-Fed meeting. 30-year at highest level since 2007. 10-year not nearly as dramatic, but nearing its high from last week. #EconSky

New York City 2026: soccer in the shadow of a tall ship. Really love this city.

Is A.I. killing white-collar jobs? Another month of data, another month of mixed signals. New story out from me today on why this is all so hard to measure: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/b...

Big e-pop drop was mostly among men. (No, I have no theories.)

But the household survey was weak in general. The prime-age (25-54) employment rate dropped sharply. Really odd move that looks like a data quirk of some kind -- it's the largest one-month drop since 2009, outside of the pandemic plunge.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, and has now been at or under 4.5 percent for 56 straight months, the longest streak since the 1960s. (h/t @talsmith.bsky.social for flagging that one)

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in June, but wage growth has been slowing. We'll get updated inflation data in a couple weeks, but it will likely show that wages continued to fall in real terms. (Though that could begin to reverse now that oil prices are coming down.)

Charts! Starting with the big picture: Job growth slowed in June (and April/May were revised down), but the pickup in hiring this year remains intact. #NumbersDay

4. What about A.I.? Layoffs in Information fell in May but remain elevated. But less of a clear story in professional & business services, and no increase so far in finance. And white collar hiring rates defy easy narratives.

2. The hires and quits rates have both leveled off but haven't rebounded. So the low-churn storyline remains in place despite the pickup in net job growth.

1. The jump in job openings in April looked like it could be a fluke. Still could be! But it held up in May, and is consistent with other evidence that the job market has firmed up this year.

Even the sky is blue and orange. #KnicksIn5