Big news here. After Salgado Araujo was killed by an ICE agent, *someone* leaked that a search warrant for the van showed FBI thought they might have seen drug baggies in it. The family said it was drink powder. Apparently the substance was tested and the family was correct.

Emerson is probably an outlier, but polling averages have House generic ballot matchup at D+6 right now, which makes the Fox/Pew polls very plausible. A big question is whether the Dem lead is starting to expand due to forever war, ICE killings, tariffs. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

This is very good on how Dems are rediscovering a politics of virtue in the era of Late Stage Trumpism, from @simonwdc.bsky.social: newrepublic.com/article/2133...

Related: New Fox poll finds Dems +1 over GOP on which party would do a better job on immigration. Somehow this happened without any big Sister Souljah moments or any performative contrition about Biden/border. Quick, commission 100 NYT opinion and Atlantic essays to explain this!

Ask yourself this: Why did Trump order ICE vehicle stops to resume after they resulted in such horrific shooting deaths? Because the violence and the terror are the point. newrepublic.com/article/2133...

The recent NYT poll finds Trump badly underwater on immigration among Maine voters by 42-56. Among independents this is a stunning 39-61. So there's a real opening here to reach the middle by condemning Collins's support for ICE. newrepublic.com/article/2133...

The news that the ICE shooter in Maine is violent, dangerous, and a domestic abuser is a massive problem for Susan Collins. In early June, Collins voted against an amendment requiring ICE bodycams. Then she voted for $70 billion in ICE funding with zero guardrails. newrepublic.com/article/2133...

Just after an ICE agent killed Johan Guerrero in Maine, Susan Collins took credit for getting ICE to end its vehicle stops. Then Trump abruptly reversed this, ordering them to continue. Oops. In short, her "concern" about the killing is accomplishing nothing. newrepublic.com/article/2133...

This is a start, I guess, but add in "MAGA media" along with "Russian media" and you're getting closer to the truth.

Here's the short version of why I think the idea that Dems can only salvage their brand with moderation is mostly bullshit. Check out this exchange with @creynoldsnc.bsky.social on this: newrepublic.com/article/2132...

Troy Jackson really has a plausible path to defeating Susan Collins and avoiding the debacle of Sara Gideon in 2020. Great stuff here from @emmarjanssen.bsky.social. Check out @newrepublic.com's debut newsletter! You should subscribe! newsletter.tnr.com/index.php?ac...

Strong statement from James Talarico on the latest troop deaths. Doesn't flinch from continuing to condemn the Iran war.

Yep. @polphilpod.bsky.social and I made this point in this essay on Elon Musk's real fascist worldview, which all of you should read if you haven't yet, because (we immodestly insist) it breaks new ground. Also see the interview with one of the authors of "Muskism." newrepublic.com/article/2119...

Now that ICE has killed again in Maine, reupping: The creators of this horrifying new reality are Trump and Stephen Miller. They pretended to want it done quietly this time, but that's just spin. The whole project is intrinsically geared toward exactly this outcome. newrepublic.com/article/2129...

Wow. I just heard back from ICE on this. Here's their statement. No comment at all on the claim that the three witnesses in the van with the deceased man are being pressured to self-deport, and ICE refers further questions to the FBI:

There's precedent for this as well. ICE's track record here is pretty horrifying: newrepublic.com/article/2129...

DHS's account of this ICE shooting raises a whole lot of questions, ones that eyewitnesses might be able to answer: newrepublic.com/article/2129...

I've got the names of the three men who were in the van with the man who was killed by ICE. LULAC's Juan Proano is demanding access to them to get full eyewitness accounts, and he charges that the pressure to self-deport is a cover-up: newrepublic.com/article/2129...

The families of the detained men who were in the van and the dead man are being represented by Juan Proano of LULAC. He tells me the families have been able to contact the men in detention. “They’re being pressured to sign self-deportation orders," Proano tells me: newrepublic.com/article/2129...

Dan Kleban, brewery owner in Maine and a candidate that a lot of Dems like, says he's ready to make the run in Platner's place:

This is from Robert Putnam, who is often cited by the anti-immigrant right: "Becoming comfortable with diversity...will...in the end well worth the effort. One great achievement of human civilization is our ability to redraw more inclusive lines of social identity."

Finally, I say there's another response to Vance’s “social cohesion” arguments: Just about everything Trump/MAGA/Vance are doing *weakens* our social bonds. MAGA is a much bigger threat to those bonds than immigrants are. 7/7 newrepublic.com/article/2041...

If developments in places like Minneapolis have shown us anything, it's that immigration creates new forms of community/social solidarity. You see this in Trump country when locals object to removals. Right populists never admit or grapple with this. 6/ newrepublic.com/article/2041...

Adding to Noah Smith's conclusion, in a piece on Stephen Miller’s worldview I argue that all signs (backlash to deportations, Minneapolis, Joe Rogan, polling) suggest most people grasp Putnam's point intuitively. See below. 5/ newrepublic.com/article/2041...

Here Noah Smith points out that JD Vance’s arguments about immigration as a threat to social trust/cohesion are very weak. As Smith notes here, a big source for this general idea on the right is Robert Putnam’s research. 2/

Trump's demand that law enforcement miraculously "find" widespread voter fraud (which is nonexistent) has gotten so unhinged that Republican officials are openly mocking AAG Harmeet Dhillon for her buffoonishly heavy-handed tactics

Yeah this is indeed surprising from Daniel. I just posted this response over on The Bad Place:

It's unlikely Johnson wants Rs to vote on this before the midterms. A recent Fox poll finds huge majorities favor birthright citizenship, including noncollege whites, rural voters, even white evangelicals. But Trump has demanded legislation, so Johnson is stuck. 7/ newrepublic.com/article/2127...

“The ‘fixes’ shift the public focus to the legal status of the parents, away from the birthplace of the child. For people who don’t know history of 14th Amendment, it might sound plausible. But it would blow a huge hole in the Constitution. It’s deeply cynical.” 6/ newrepublic.com/article/2127...

Even worse, Mike Johnson casually slips in the claim that US citizenship is being "devalued" by "birth tourism." That's very loaded language, essentially declaring that the kids of undocumented immigrants are inferior. Status should not be a matter of bloodline. 5/ newrepublic.com/article/2127...