Over one third of multinationals’ foreign profits are shifted to tax havens, costing governments >$200 billion a year. Reallocation would raise reported profits by 20% in high-tax EU countries, 10% in the US and 5% in developing countries; and more than halve tax-haven profits

Interesting QJE paper on how the American Medical Association helped entrench private health insurance in the US after WWII. By branding national insurance “socialised medicine” and promoting private plans, it shows how well-funded interest groups can shape opinion and policy.

Interesting new paper on how emotions shape policy views. Anger in US political discourse is at a historic high and drives online engagement. Negative emotions increase support for protectionism and tighter immigration rules. Positive emotions reduce populist inclinations.

This new AER paper finds that carbon pricing reduces emissions and spurs green innovation, but also raises energy costs and slows economic activity. Poorer households are hit hardest because they spend more of their income on energy and face larger income losses.

Healthcare spending in the United States is substantially higher than in other advanced economies, yet life expectancy is considerably lower.

Useful survey paper on recent research in geoeconomics with a focus on geoeconomic aspects of sanctions/embargoes, coercion and fragmentation in international trade, currency dominance and state-directed capital flows in international finance, and conflict/war/military production.

The data website provides instructions for downloading the full election results country-by-country, installing R and Python packages for easily pulling the data locally, and an interactive map of the data. Link: noahdasanaike.github.io/sage.html

This seems like a very useful new data set: Small-Area Global Elections (SAGE). The main benefit is the combination of extremely fine-grained geographical election data, broad international coverage, and harmonised information across countries and elections.

The number of deaths recorded in France increased by nearly 30% during the hottest week of the June heatwave, i.e. at least 2,000 additional people died ("excess deaths"). Public Health France says it's probably an underestimate.

Since 2009, the EU's non-financial corporations have shifted from their traditional role as net borrowers - absorbing household savings to finance investment -towards a net lending position vis-à-vis the rest of the economy. By 2024, NFC net lending stood at to 1.2% of EU GDP.

Next year, the 🇩🇪federal government will spend €150 billion on defence (3.3% of GDP). In the coming years, this figure is set to rise further. Three quarters of new borrowing will go to the military/security agencies. Higher interest payments are also attributable to them.

Supply-chain disruptions can raise inflation not only by increasing import/transport costs, but also by strengthening firms’ pricing power when goods become harder to find. Companies also adjusted prices in response to competitors’ supply problems, amplifying inflationary impact.

Ich war im Podcast "Wohlstand für Alle" und habe dort mit Wolfgang Schmitt über meine Forschung zu öffentlichen Investitionen und Rüstungsausgaben sowie wirtschaftliche und politische Effekte von Budgetkürzungen gesprochen.

The ECB’s wage tracker suggests that wage growth in the euro area remains contained. Negotiated wage growth, excluding one-off payments, is expected to decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, implying real wage losses if inflation remains higher.

Interesting new Acemoglu, Autor et al paper. Lower birth rates have not reduced economic growth; they are linked to higher GDP per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across US commuting zones. Mechanism: a labor-saving technological response to the scarcity of younger workers.

The main findings from our recent paper on fiscal consolidation and political instability are now available as a SUERF Policy Brief: www.suerf.org/wp-content/u... Full study: wiiw.ac.at/fiscal-conso...

Fiscal tightening increases political instability: approval falls; the likelihood of government crises and protests increases. Effects stronger in downturns and when consolidation relies only on spending cuts. Limiting contractionary effects helps safeguard political stability

The revenue potential ranges from annual revenues of €2 billion from online gambling taxation or €3 billion from cryptocurrency transaction taxes, to revenues of €5–7 billion from aviation-related taxes, and up to €41 billion annually from taxes on ultra-wealthy individuals.

Using criteria such as EU added value, distributional effects, revenue potential, and capacity to address negative externalities, we find that several options could strengthen EU revenues and tackle challenges (tax avoidance, financial instability, climate change, and inequality)

Even greater reliance on national contributions risks reinforcing distributive conflicts and public perceptions of the EU through national net balances, potentially weakening support for collective European action. Macron is right about this.

We analyse options for new own resources to support the financing of an expanded EU budget.

A financial transaction tax, a digital tax, taxes on cryptocurrency and online gambling, aviation-related levies, taxes on the ultra-wealthy etc. could significant generate revenues while addressing common European issues.

France is actively pushing for new revenue sources in the EU budget 2028–2034 as a way to avoid politically toxic debates about higher national contributions. Good! We have just completed a study analysing various options for new own resources 🧵

Useful review paper summarising the evidence on the effects of heat on labor productivity. "In addition to physical outputs, extreme temperatures also impair mental productivity, including cognition and learning... [regarding] adaptation strategies, the conclusions are mixed."

Heat reduces time spent working, especially in weather-exposed sectors such as agriculture, construction and manufacturing, with time reallocated to indoor non-work activities. Evidence:

Economic growth was once closely linked to increasing environmental degradation. More recently, however, many high-income countries have continued to increase GDP per capita while reducing their environmental impacts.

Source: www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/3082...

The ECB has once again raised interest rates amid an oil-price-driven inflation shock. That's consistent with a long-standing pattern: every ECB tightening cycle has coincided with energy prices (orange line) increasing substantially faster than the overall consumer price index.

DerStandard berichtet über unsere Studie zu neuen Einnahmequellen für die Finanzierung des EU-Budgets 2028-2034 (z.B. Finanztransaktionssteuer, Digitalsteuer, Steuern auf Kryptowährungs-Transaktionen und Online-Glücksspiel, Abgaben im Luftverkehrsbereich, Steuern für sehr vermögende Privatpersonen).

Oil supply shocks have immediate but short-lived effects, while gas supply shocks have broader and more persistent effects on €zone inflation. This research suggests that the 2026 energy shock is likely to have a more contained inflationary impact than the 2021–22 episode.