Ahead of tonight’s match Bellingham’s approval rating (+48) is too high to fit on our tracker graph, but here you can see how popular he is – just 6% think he is doing a bad job, which is the same as captain Harry Kane last week.

Diverging fortunes in leader approvals. Badenoch has positive net approval for the first time on +3, the first party leader to do so since summer 2024 & tying with Burnham. But Farage drops to his lowest approval since the election -24. Davey is -6, Polanski -19, Starmer -42.

The gap narrows slightly as Reform leads Labour and the Tories by 4pts in this weeks voting intention. ➡️ REF UK 26% (-1)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🌹 LAB 22% (+1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🌍 GREEN 12% (+2)
❓ OTH 2% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,198 | Fieldwork 10-13/7  | Changes w 8/7

This and the lower levels of faith that the public now have in the government to improve their lives do highlight the 'optimism cost' of the Starmer premiership. Burnham starts with a lower reserve of hope he'll want to replenish than Labour did in 2024.

One area Burnham will want to address - a product likely of Starmer's struggles with party management - is that they are much more likely to think Burnahm will prioritise the interests of the Labour Party over the country than they were Starmer in July 24

Broad expectations are that Burnham will govern in line with how he has presented himself during the campaign - although some voters including majorities of Conservative and Reform voters expect him to govern more left.

Burnham's net approval is higher than Starmer's among all groups - but particularly among Labour left and Labour right switchers. There's a big group of don't knows/neither among left and right switchers whose early opinions will matter for a Labour recovery.

Self placement is also interesting - Average Brit and Labour loyalist put themselves dead centre at a 5. Labour Right switchers put themselves at a 6 and Labour left switchers at a 4 (interesting Labour left switchers still see Bunrham as more left wing than them!)

This is what I argued in my piece for @thetimes.com after Makerfield. You have to unite your bloc & win cross over voters. Burnham will have to win back voters who've gone right. My addition was you also need to mobilise, differential turnout matters a lot. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

As he says challenge for Burnham if he wants Labour to win re-election isn't to pick left or right! Doing one stops going extinct, but you have to do both to win. Electoral math hasn't changed that much in era of fragmentation that only one matters but does creates more vehicles for inbloc switching

Interesting from Peter Kellner on what has happened to the electorate since 2024 - essentially the size of the 'right bloc' has increased because of between left-right bloc switching and there has been an exceptional amount of in bloc switching too - both matter kellnerp.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

Full favourite list here

- Taylor Swift fans come closest to being a three way Labour-Ref-Con tie. -Harry Styles fans take us back to two party Lab-Con politics Ed Sheeran was the most selected and Reform narrowly lead, followed by Paul McCartney with a narrow Tory lead

- Reform strongest among Dua Lipa and Take That fans - The Tories do best among One Direction fans - Greens dominate among Chappell Roan fans - If only Kendrick Lamar fans could vote it’d be a Labour landslide

But even Tuchel’s approval looks lukewarm compared to England captain Harry Kane. Kane has the sort of job approval our political class could only dream of at +53.

Burnham remains just in positive, approval at +2. Badenoch is -1, Davey is at -7, Farage -16 & Polanski -22. After a series of football interventions Starmer hits his highest this year at -39. And speaking of football Tuchel’s approval has jumped this week from +13 to +21!

Reform lead the Tories by 5 in this week’s voting intention, with Labour just into third. ➡️ REF UK 27% (-1)
🌳 CON 22% (+2)
🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 10% (nc)
❓ OTH 5% (+2)
 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,119 | Fieldwork 3-6/7 | Changes w 28/6

Brits now overwhelmingly think Starmer was right to resign by more than a 3 to 1 margin. Even Labour voters are almost 20pts more likely than not to say Starmer was right to resign.

Badenoch has the highest gross approval followed by Farage and Burnham. Starmer, Reeves, Farage and Polanski have the greatest negatives.

Burnham remains in positive territory on +5 though down slightly. Badenoch at -2, followed by Davey -7, Farage -17, Polanski -22 and Starmer up slightly from his lows at -44. The clear winner this week, though, is Thomas Tuchel at +13 approval

Labour bump up 3 this week their highest share in almost a year narrowing Reform’s lead to 4, while the Tories drop back 2. ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (+3)
🌳CON 20% (-2)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 10% (nc)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1) N = 2,852 | 26-28/6 | Changes w/ 22/6

In common with other research there is less support for targeted relief for the poorest, particularly if it comes on other people's bills. From qual that seems to be driven by a sense 'no one ever looks out for me' and idea richest/poorest always get looked after.

Flexible energy tariffs are more appealing than not for most people, though Reform voters are more likely to prefer simple flat rates - from qual this seems linked to the idea that Reform voters are the most resistant to idea of 'when they can use energy' being restricted

It's striking that even today after significant promotion heat pumps remain relatively unknown to many when we discuss them in focus groups, with that sense of unknown fuelling hesitancy about switching

We also looked at attitudes to electrification, while many people would be willing to make a switch to heat pump or an EV worries about costs are a barrier. Reform voters stand out in being more likely to say even if cost weren't a barrier they wouldn't want to switch

Concern about bills also fuels a rigged system narrative with voters most likely to say that the energy system is run in the interests of energy companies rather than ordinary households. More broadly it fuels a general sense of Government impotence.

People are particularly worried about the coming winter and energy bills form a large component of people's worries about the cost of living, in particular because they can't be 'controlled' by much that they do personally.

In focus groups and our polling people tend to see greener options as a solution to instability because it is 'home grown'. But participants then tend to split (on more left-right lines) on the extent to which that should go hand in hand with extracting more fossil fuel reserves

Part of the challenge is there has been a marked increase in those who worry that international factors and instability means that bills are always going to be more unstable. War in Ukraine and Middle East

Our latest energy tracker with @electrifygb.bsky.social. Finds many Brits pessimistic energy bills will ever be more affordable. But Labour loyalists, those who backed Labour in 24 & still would are more hopeful. Challenge for Burnham will be extending optimism govt can do things to help