It brings me no pleasure to report this @bencasselman.bsky.social & @colbylsmith.bsky.social piece, from 17-months ago to the day, has aged disturbingly well top to bottom www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/b...

This lack of bounce back from last month's awful employment ratio print is one more month from VERY concerning. Just cuz we've never done a modern CAPITAL IS WINNING stagflation before doesn't mean it's impossible (H/T @ernietedeschi.bsky.social for the chart)

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Know (all) thy #jobsday expectations! In spite of an excellent flag from @lydiadepillis.bsky.social about the huge decline in breakeven payrolls this AM, expectations ~ MEAN(2024:2026) breakevens remain the norm

I had a blast with all 4 of these, including the background to make sure I wasn’t lying! But the best part is saying the quiet part out loud 👇

Lots to squint at in this report, especially revisions (H//T @aaronsojourner.org) I was gonna make a Solow Paradox joke but after getting to the letter D in his students I need a gaming monitor to do it correctly academictree.org/econ/tree.ph...

Nope! 1(a) is still (1), Can only boil normie water. rocks tho, Spicy Rocks👇

Low-key hilarious that 5 billion passengers are literally flying in the face of Modigliani and Miller every year--including Modigliani and Miller!

FWIW this is vs the 2023-24 average, it was bad out there in 2025, kinda everywhere it seems.

Another falsified hypothesis about bad econ vibes I thought job openings dropped more in DC, NY, CA--overrepresented in media places. These aren't great in any of those places, but this is change in Job Opening rates from previous year for 2025 (via www.bls.gov/charts/state... )

Welp... Shoutout to the calendar for the banger May jobs number Boo to the calendar this month

Most important: how are the new grads doing? The departure from unemployment rate trends of young & high-edu labor market participants since 2022 is so striking I wrote it up in my preview this month. 3/3 rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-ai-...

Happy Early JobsDay to all who celebrate! Forecasters predict a *very* bland one after last month's big payroll beat--let's hope they're right NFP: 112K (172k last month) Unemployment Rate: 4.3 (again) Earnings: 3.5% YoY (up from 3.4% last month) 1/3

Ultimately whether or not Warsh can cut rates depends on macroeconomic factors and how he Marshalls’s them to persuade a FOMC majority. There’s a path forward there, he just has to take it!

It would take some refuting previous positions, but that could be a feature! 4/

Third, He needs to learn to speak macro or he’s not going to get the votes to get anything done. r* is his friend, he could be right about cutting rates, AI boom or not 3/

Second, Communication is Kevin’s friend. We don’t know if Future Kevin Warsh is going to be like Past Kevin Warsh or New Kevin Warsh yet The less cryptic the better as he sorts that out 2/

Which Kevin Warsh do we hear from next week?

People, myself included, have often been too critical of Energy Dominance as vague, or a policy that doesn't mean anything, but we are embarrassed this am. I get it now www.bls.gov/news.release...

I think Ethan is the only one I've seen flag this vibes paper. One of the most striking graphs of the decade--all of a sudden spending completely decoupled from sentiment and correlation has stayed at near zero for years

No, feds added 1K, this is almost all local (55K)

Some weirdness in local gov (non-edu) and leisure & hospitality driving a lot of gains, maybe seasonal adjustment related? Still, you have to squint pretty hard at this to say it's not a banger. Rate hike probabilities are going to move up today

Love any good response to bad faith haters, but the best ones look like this!

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www.congress.gov/crs_external...

Oh good, a republican and a money manager are going to break down macroeconomics. This will be informative

They're calling it a Tour de Force for econ hacks