Dr Tamitha Skov
@tamithaskov
Space Weather Physicist. Forecasting aurora, GPS, HF radio & radiation issues during solar storms. On TV: HISTORY, Weather Channel, PopSci, NASA TV, Arte TV, Crave TV, MIT Technology Review and more.
Perfect timing: Two solar storms hit Earth along with a total solar eclipse at the same time as the peak of the Perseid meteor shower? What a gift! Discover the details of this rare celestial convergence: https://www.patreon.com/SpaceWeatherWoman/posts/166355634 (no paywall + blog & eclipse links)
An extremely slow-moving solar storm is passing over Earth today and Ive been waiting to see if it might become newsworthy. In the last hour or so AE has begun to hover around ~1000 nT and stay there. In a general sense, this means aurora might finally build enough to dip down into mid-latitudes!
The latest mini-solar storm impact has been mild, but the larger solar storm has yet to arrive. The new #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast goes into detail about what is happening, including the big radiation storm hitting Earth, & when to see aurora and meteors this week: https://youtu.be/uXmqB-s9p0c
Region 4492 just fired an M1.9-flare, but the real story is the very HARD spectrum radiation storm building now. It is strongly penetrating at the flight levels of airlines and low Earth orbit (LEO). We are at an S1-level radiation storm alert now. High risk passengers take this into consideration.
Our Sun is peppering the Earth in solar storms and flares this week. The big focus is Region 4493, which has become a X-flare player and totally reshaped the nearby coronal hole. Learn the details and see what it all means for aurora, HF radio operators, & GPS users: https://youtu.be/jco1yfMTJo8
Great news! Aurora viewing chances just skyrocketed! Views possible even deep into mid-latitudes tonight thanks to a sharp flip in the magnetic orientation of the latest solar storm. Aurora chasers, if current conditions are sustained we could easily reach G3 storm levels over the next few hours.
Join me TODAY at 5:30pm PDT (00:30 UTC July 3) for a LIVE briefing on all the big activity from our Sun, what we should expect with the coming holiday solar storm train, and when things will quiet back down. https://youtube.com/live/-0YF6Y5VR-k?feature=share
Here is the full 3D interactive animation showing the first of the coming solar storms. Launched during the X1.1-flare on June 30, this storm uses the NASA/M2M fit, coronagraph imagery from GOES, SOHO, & STEREO-A (shown below). This takes about a minute to load: https://shorturl.at/NC2Qa
Want to kknow what the coming solar storms look like? Fly through this 3D solar storm visualizer to see the first of several storms that could bring us aurora. Launched during the X1.1-flare on June 30, this storm was modeled using the preliminary fit from NASA/M2M: https://shorturl.at/Mw6nd
Machine-Gun Sun! 5 storms are on their way to Earth--3 of them offer good chances for aurora views. NOAA and NASA model predictions do not show all the storms yet, but the first should hit before noon July 3 UTC. Expect G2+ level conditions, if the orientation of the storms are conducive for aurora.
Between the X-class flare and a slow solar storm hit, there's a lot of radio signal degradation today. An R3-level radio blackout of HF/ VHF (see the "bull's-eye" color pattern on the map) on Earth's dayside and an increase in blue-purple turbulent zones affecting GPS. Stay vigilant radio operators!
Our Sun does more than sizzle: Region 4479 just fired an X1.1-flare and big solar storm while in the Earth-Strike Zone! Fast wind from a coronal hole south of the source region could deflect the structure northward, but we could catch some of it. Waiting for coronagraphs to inform model runs now.
A new Space Weather forecast is here just in time for Field Day Weekend! Learn why X-flares and big Radio Blackouts are on the menu, find out why streamer blowouts are expected to hit Earth, and see when aurora chances should peak this week: https://www.patreon.com/SpaceWeatherWoman/posts/162169052
Finally, after flirting with the aurora for nearly 24 hours, we are finally getting some strong substorm indications. This is good news. The fast wind combined with a flanking solar storm blow should give us a short-lived G1 storm (I hope). Aurora chasers stay vigilant over the next 24 hours.
Our Sun wakes! Region 4473 fires an M6.9-flare with an R2 Radio Blackout that is calming slowly. Radio operators on the sunlit side of Earth expect HF/VHF comms issues over the next hour. Aviators in the northern hemisphere, stay vigilant for GPS issues especially where the Sun is low in the sky.
Early estimates of midday to late June 13 look to be spot on, at least with the NOAA/SWPC prediction. Here is their latest model run that captures the two eastward travelling solar storms. As for the south-westward filament launch, I am not so ready to dismiss that particular storm Expect G1-levels!
Yet another chance! Despite the most recent solar storm fizzle, 3 partially Earth directed solar storms launched in the last 24 hours and are on their way to Earth. All of these storms have a chance of at least grazing Earth, with impact starting likely mid to late day June 13. More analysis coming!
Here is the NOAA prediction that shows the slower, flanking blow and arrival around 11:00 UTC on June 8.
The NASA and NOAA model prediction runs show two possibilities: a fast, near direct hit (early June 8) and a slower, near flanking blow (mid-day June 8). It all depends upon how the coming storm interacts with the solar wind on its way to Earth. Fast solar wind might deflect the storm towards us.
Just when everyone thinks the recent solar storm fizzles were all we were going to have this week, WHAM! Region 4461 fires a massive blast and launches a fast solar storm towards Earth. Aurora photographers get ready for arrival June 8, as this storm could easily outperform the others we just had!
This first solar storm arrival shows northward magnetic field (thanks @HaloCME), which means aurora remains at high latitudes for now. But ions upstream of Earth indicate a shock is coming, which means another storm approaches. New Zealand, Tasmania, & Australia stay vigilant. Aurora may build soon!
Fashionably late: The expected solar storms have yet to arrive, but they are drawing near! Learn the details of the 4 solar storms on their way, find out why Region 4455 has been so unstable & watch the recent X-flare disrupt satellite signals for a short bit! https://www.patreon.com/posts/160176272
Direct Hit! The solar storm launched during the M9.3-flare is indeed Earth-directed! NASA's solar storm prediction shows this second storm arrivaing late June 4. However, a small storm will precede this so expect some impact starting around mid-day June 4 with the stronger storm close behind!
Region 4455 strikes again! M9.3-flare (nearly an X-flare) with a high R2-level radio blackout now! Expect degraded radio communications over next hour, especially Asian Pacific, India, Asia, East Africa, Alaska & Hawaii (colored areas in map). X-flare risk remains elevated over the next 72 hours.
Farside flare players rotate into Earth view this week! Over 10 active regions grace the Sun's east limb and are firing flares and solar storms. Streamer blowouts hit amid some fast solar wind. Learn the details in the newest #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast: https://www.patreon.com/posts/159443181
Here is the latest activity from our Sun. Quite a few new regions are rotating into view from the Sun's farside, which means more activity is coming our way. Working on a full forecast now!
On the Sun's farside old Region 4429 has been growing like gangbusters!. Not only that, another sunspot cluster has emerged nearby causing big instability. In the past 2 days it's fired 4 X-class flares & 13 M-class flares in Solar Orbiter's view. This region will rotate into view in about 6 days.
The fast solar wind is now giving us sustained southward field so aurora is dropping down to mid-latitudes now! Expect views to continue to brighten over the next several hours at least. The new moon tonight also means skies should be exceptionally dark! Perfect for viewing where skies are clear!
The new #SpaceWeatherWoman forecast is up! Learn lesser-known details of the recent M5.8-flare & solar storm launch, including the effect on a nearby coronal hole. See when the next chance for aurora is & why HF radio operators get a short reprieve from radio blackouts! https://youtu.be/qLnkogEGx5A
Just returning from the Space Weather Workshop in time for a nice solar storm! This one is strong enough to bump us past G2-levels momentarily, but because the storm is slow, aurora shows at mid-latitudes might remain substorm driven. Watch for them over the next 12+ hours!