Andrew Sissons

@acjsissons

Day job: climate change, heat pumps, energy at Nesta Other stuff: low-fi economics on growth, cities & economic geography, general UK policy, occasional basic charts Bristol, he/him, lots of parenting / caring. Personal account.

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Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 12d

On the specific measures... A. Fiscal devolution - this is big, and quick. The proposal to give mayors a share of local income tax to replace grants *from April 2028* is bold, but also looks quite smart. Fiscal devolution comes with big risks, because England is so geographically unequal...

We have therefore agreed to overhaul the way regional government is funded, starting by
replacing grants from central government with a share of local income tax for every mayor
beginning in 2028, such that where a region grows its tax base, it benefits from the increased
receipts. This will sit alongside greater retention of the revenue from business rates for local
councils and strategic authorities. The long-term certainty of funding via taxation will provide
more flexibility and enable greater investment to fund interventions that will deliver a
return. We will consider how these growth incentives can be balanced with the need for
fairness between places, recognising that there will be different starting points across the
country. We will also give all strategic authorities the ability to introduce an Overnight Visitor
Levy, with local leaders able to set out plans for how revenues will be invested by March
2028.
We also discussed the large regional disparities between current levels of public investment
per head in different parts of the country. Alongside our programme of fiscal devolution, we
will therefore rebalance public investment, including considering the balance of subsidy and
other finance mechanisms, to ensure we are backing growth opportunities in all parts of the
country. This will be supported by considering how areas could benefit from increased land

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 12d

2. Replacing "consultation by default" with "modern forms of public participation". I don't know exactly what this means in practice, but what it is saying is: "mayors can get things done", and because they are directly accountable to local people, they need need to ask permission less...

This major transfer of powers and functions will have implications for the role and shape of central
government, the Civil Service, and arm’s length bodies.
We agreed that this agenda will be about devolution, not delegation. Central government must
become smaller and more strategic, releasing savings and enabling resources to be transferred to
local areas alongside policy responsibilities. Where powers and functions are transferred, we will
not duplicate them. We also agreed to adopt an operating principle of devolving by default –
meaning that where policies or services are being designed or altered, Secretaries of State will need
to justify holding them at the level of central government.
We agreed to replace the current model of consultation by default with new and modern forms of
public participation. This includes considering where performative statutory duties to consult can
be revoked and how we can more actively bring the public into the policy-making process instead.
This recognises that local leaders are better equipped to link public opinion and civil society to policy
making.
This will also mean a smaller and more strategic Civil Service, focussed on the challenges that can
best be dealt with at a national level. We believe this represents an opportunity for the Civil Service
to adapt and learn through greater interchange with regional and local government, becoming more
porous and working together to deliver better outcomes for the citizens we serve. To do this, we
will actively build new career paths between central government and the wider public sector. The
National School for Government will play an important part.

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 12d

Here are the bits which jumped out most to me... On the long term vision: 1. Alignment of geographies for police, fire and care with local govt boundaries (by 2029) This is very important - a precursor to local leadership of key public services - but also requires a LOT of reform in Whitehall

We further recognise that strong and integrated public services are important to meeting
people’s needs, including children and families, and are critical to local economic growth.
Through devolution, we will ensure services work together as a single coherent system built
around the priorities of people and places. We will therefore give areas more local
democratic control over their public services, from health to policing to education, including
through the establishment of deputy mayor roles with responsibility for key public services.
To enable this, we will align key public service boundaries. This will include new local police
units aligning with local authorities, and regional police forces, fire and rescue services and
Integrated Care Boards aligning with the boundaries of strategic authorities by the end of
the Parliament. Where there are strong financial, strategic or operational reasons for larger
organisations, this alignment may be to the boundaries of multiple, rather than just one,
strategic authority. We will also enable greater alignment and pooling of funding for
preventative services by devolving funding, where possible, allowing strategic authorities
and constituent local authorities to invest in joint support, as long as national standards are
being met. This will enable a place-based approach to budgeting that better meets local
priorities.

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 21d

To slightly counter @stephenkb.bsky.social’s argument here, the problem is not a blanket shortage of energy - it’s a shortage of oil and gas specifically. The UK has plenty of electricity supply; part of the problem is that demand for electricity is falling at a time we are building a lot more of it

Energy costs are high because we don't have enough energy to meet demand and therefore costs are up. The pressures on the cost of living mean we need the government to continue implementing the John Fingleton review, thereby bringing down the time and cost of building new nuclear power stations.
We also need to continue to diversify and expand our energy supplies and persist with further planning reform.

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 22d

#MetrobankFever is one of the few remaining good hashtags on the internet, a throwback in every way

A positive test for Metrobank One Day Cup fever

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 22d

Ben Stokes making an unbeaten hundred in the Metrobank on its opening day is just superb

Scorecard showing Ben Stokes making 108 from 123 balls in Durham’s successful chase of 257/5 to beat Derbyshire
In the One Day Cup

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

Why do we think this might be a good idea? Well first thing is that it creates more stability in the case for getting off gas. Low gas prices are *very* bad for electrification (and high gas prices are bad for everyone). A Gas Price Stabiliser would smooth out the price ratio considerably

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

Here's another way you could do it: set a ceiling (say 10p) and a floor (say 6p), and apply the subsidy / tax above or below this. You allow more variability in gas prices within a "normal" range, but you don't get too high or too low prices.

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

Here's one way you could do it: fix the household gas price at its current level (7.33p /kWh) for 3 years. If gas prices rise above that, HMT subsidises bills. If prices fall below, it taxes them. Consumers get certainty, energy bills stay more stable. (NB - only household, not wholesale prices!)

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

Household gas prices have increased quite dramatically over the last 25 years - and show no real signs of falling back (first chart). At the same time, gas price volatility has increased a lot (second chart). And it is really bad for the economy and public finances.

Chart showing GB household gas prices increasing by 2.5 times in real terms since 2000

Chart showing much more volatility in gas prices in the post-2022 era than before it

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

HOWEVER, the price ratio target may also need to fall over time. At the moment, subsidies for heat pumps are fairly large, at £7,500. We recommend they should fall over time, and that will require the price ratio to fall too - or other policies to make heat pumps cheaper.

Chart showing how the price ratio needed for lifetime cost parity declines over time as subsidies reduce. The ratio required falls below 1 by the mid 2030s when we recommend no subsidy - which implies other policies are needed to reduce heat pump costs

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

How could government achieve a price ratio of 2.9 or lower? Well, lots of way, but in the short term we recommended these four changes, which would reduce the price ratio to 2.7. These are the policies covered in the Guardian at the weekend, which we hope the new PM will take forward...

Remove remaining electricity levies
Removing the costs of the remaining Renewables Obligation and Feed-in-Tariff onto taxation would lower bills and lower the price ratio, at an annual cost to the Exchequer (until the 2030s)
3.34
-£42
£1.7 billion per year until 2037
AND remove VAT on electricity bills
Changing VAT on electricity bills from 5% to 0%
3.18
-£81
£3.2 billion per year
AND abolish the gas standing charge
Removing the gas standing charge and adding it to unit rates would be progressive, lower the price ratio substantially and modestly lower typical bills
2.84
-£103
£3.2 billion per year
AND forgive electricity debt
Forgiving electricity debt would lower all electricity bills by removing the costs of bad debt, which are socialised across all bill payers. This would be a one time cost with a decent impact on the typical bill. It does bring moral hazard problems
2.73
-£130
£3.2 billion per year + £2.7 billion one off

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

Why a target of 2.9? Well, we think it's sufficient for a heat pump in a typical home to achieve lifetime cost parity - cost the same to run over its lifetime - with a new gas boiler. Because the heat pump would save enough on your energy bill to offset the higher upfront cost...

Chart showing the price ratio required for lifetime cost parity between a heat pump and a new gas boiler. It is 2.7 at pre-Iran gas prices and 3.0 at post-Iran prices

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 23d

In Britain, the price ratio is currently 3.6 (it was much higher before the Iran war). Most other countries in Europe have much lower price ratios (and more heat pumps) - because of the way they price gas and electricity. We think GB now needs deliberate policy to get the price ratio below 3...

Chart showing electricity to gas price ratio since 1996 in GB. It has varied between 3.2 and 5.7, and has never been as low as 2.9

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 24d

UK territorial carbon emissions have fallen by over half since 1990 - with most progress since the late 2000s. Net zero is a continuation of that pathway to zero by 2050. www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

Chart showing UK greenhouse gas emissions having fallen by about half since 1990, with their trajectory to net zero continuing on a similar trajectory to 2050

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 25d

Our proposed package would cut the typical bill by £130, and involves: - Removing the remaining levies on electricity bills - Removing VAT on electricity -Abolishing the gas standing charge, moving it to unit costs - Forgiving £2.7bn of electricity debt which raises everyone’s bills

Table shows impact on bills of four proposals to reduce energy bills

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 27d

CfDs (new renewables subsidies in this chart) have had almost no impact on bills since 2020. It is the early renewables that have driven up bills. The thing you need to be worrying about - what the energy cos were warning about - is network and balancing costs (plus things like the nuclear RAV)

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· 28d

Still hot, still trying to work on my abysmal DIY video skills, so... Here are some things to think about if you're considering getting air conditioning!

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 8

And here is a chart on how being too hot is bad for your productivity (among other much worse effects)

Chart shows office productivity low at a temperature of 14C, peaking at around 22C, and falling again as temperatures rise further

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 8

Here is some survey evidence that use of portable air conditioners (which are not great tbh) has risen quite a bit in the UK...

Chart showing 4% of surveyed households in 2022 saying they use portable air con at home, rising to 8% in 2025

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 8

Here is a chart we don't really want Americans to see...

Chart shows air con uptake in homes in selected countries. Japan and the USA lead the way with 91% and 90%. England is on 4.3%

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 8

It's getting hot again, so... Nesta's @charlie-meyrick.bsky.social has some more content on air conditioning. In particular, about how air conditioning is also an excellent option for clean heating (it's a heat pump)... www.nesta.org.uk/data-visuali...

Anekin / Padme meme.
Anekin say "we're doing air con discourse again"
Padme replies "about how air con is a heat pump, right?"

His face implies that is not the case, she looks displeased

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 6

England’s tactics for the quarter final revealed

Uhtred of Bebbenburgh and his companions fighting in a shield wall in the TV series The Last Kingdom

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 3

Proposal for The Loop, by Chris Williamson, President of RIBA. It is a red line connecting nine cities in northern England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jul 3

Evidence here that the Greater Brighton City Deal really exists…

A red hard back book with Greater Brighton City Deal in gold letters

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jun 29

What do I mean by that? Some places have manufacturing-oriented economies. They’ll only succeed if we have good l, pro-manufacturing policies (trade, energy etc.) Many cities have knowledge service-oriented economies, which need you to get universities, migration, transport etc. policy right…

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jun 26

I have resolved the discourse about air con, no need to talk about it any further

The good/bad meme, but both faces are the good face. They say “passive cooling” and “air conditioning”

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jun 25

Spoke to Evan Davis about (air to air) heat pumps!

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jun 25

This is the key research finding - R&D spending has led to more patents per dollar, and those patents still drive sales growth. But the really surprising bit is the association with more intangible, less manufacturing-oriented businesses…

But company-level data suggests that between 1977 and 2016, the average dollar of R&D spending in fact became more effective at delivering patents. And those patents seemed decent at generating growth in sales per worker.
If anything, the relationship strengthened later.
None of which fits with the notion that we're having to reach higher for the apples near the top of the ideas tree.
The authors suggest that some of the pessimism of the earlier study might have been because of its focus on the shrinking manufacturing sector.

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons· Jun 24

A coda: there was another spike in the electricity spot price this evening, but only about half as big as on Tuesday. Think this suggests either NESO’s actions working or the market adjusting to an unexpected shortage (with more gas plants entering the market to take advantage of that price surge)