Arin Dube
@arindube
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative Preorder my book, The Wage Standard:
There's no bad weather, just bad gear" Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
My checklist: 1. For algebraic derivations, require checks with symbolic Python (sympy). 2. Also require a completely independent numeric solver that computes the equilibrium objects from the primitives, then checks those against the analytical formulas. (See attached figure.) 2/
Okay the Med is not the Pacific but hear me out ... Costa Brava is giving Big Sur vibes
We love Catalunya, and really enjoyed our time around Tossa de Mar (and Barcelona before then).
Abdul El-Sayed primary win probability rose dramatically since April in betting markets. During that period, there was very modest change in Dem win probability in the general election. According to markets, AES is has similar chance of beating GOP as likely alternative - around 75% probability.
The impact of AI on jobs is uncertain. What is certain: assessment of job-creation/destruction by tech company CEOs should be heavily discounted, or ignored altogether. Tech CEOs have no insights in labor economics, and have bad incentives on this issue.
This is quite an event study. According to the betting market, the dramatic increase in Platner's chance of dropping off in light of today's news (and possibly more) has similarly led to a sharp increase in the chance of Democrats winning the Maine Senate election.
The hype that wasn't ... How AI leaders are rapidly changing their tune. (from the WSJ) Link: www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-w...
One place I want to go back and spend more time at is Siena. It is a really special place and I enjoyed my brief stay there last year.
Not sure how much weight to put on the sizable uptick in SQ832 win probability this morning in the Kalshi prediction market. Wondering if that reflects heavier than expected turnout? @troach.bsky.social
I'll be closely watching the results from SQ 832 tomorrow, establishing a minimum wage in Oklahoma. On the prediction-market, Kalshi, it has a ~65% chance of passing. Suggests an uncertain and competitive race. Regardless of the outcome, the results will be of interest to the country as a whole.
Great time talking about The Wage Standard in OKC yesterday, thank you @troach.bsky.social!
The Iran War is lowering real wages: the year-over-year 4.3% inflation outpaced the 3.4% wage growth, leaving American workers worse off.
Nominal wage growth ticking down - no labor market pressures on inflation. Unfortunately, recent price hikes mean this will likely produce real wage declines (once new CPI data is released. 4/.
172k jobs number blows past expectations. The American labor market keeps surprising pessimists. 🧵
If you're interested in following the conversation we're having around The Wage Standard, check out my book page, which is regularly updated. It's a hub with event calendar, and links to media (including interviews and op-eds). (Link in next post)
Great interview with @troach.bsky.social from UCO about the upcoming OK minimum wage ballot initiative. He provides important context on what the experience of other states that have raised the minimum wage. Link: okcfox.com/news/local/o...
A deep dive into living standards and inequality comparing Sweden and US, focusing on redistribution vs predistribution, and a bonus on use of price indices and PPP and what difference it makes! Link: next post