New spoof pattern unlocked! Shall we call it the Z-dance?

As expected, the drone campaign has now moved south of the Kerch Strait, to an even larger anchorage. Allegedly 20 ships hit yesterday. From last three months timelapse you can see there is a large variability in numbers, but a possible dip in last days? Monitoring the situation .-)

Unsure, not to the south anchorage at least. It is also looking more sparse.

Not today, said the sat imagery gods (same day). Likewise, on Sentinel 1 from day before, no unaccounted for echoes.

My numbers on pre-attacj levels are rather shaky, the last maximum (~90) is counted by I have not done a proper timeseries back. Might do that soon. Here a 5 year timelapse, for you to judge my eyeball =)

My assessment that Kerch Strait north ship anchorage (Crimea logistics) is done for now, stands. After incessant hammering by Ukraine drone forces the latest sat imagery (July 13th) show only 6 ships left, from about 50-90 normally. Ukraine has claimed 116 ships hit.

Last seven days at least three likely false flagged tankers have passed German and/or Danish territory. None via Sweden. These tankers are likely breaking international maritime law and can be stopped at any time by any navy, to ascertain flag status.

Russian Kerch Strait fuel logistics has been turned off. July 8 saw a 28 ship long queue fleeing south from north anchorage amidst constant drone attacks from Ukraine forces. On partial sat radar imagery from early this morning only 3 of 28 ships visible are left.

SEA OWL I, seized by Swedish authorities for flying the false flag Komoros has since changed to false flag Cameroon but is flying Komoros again since June 1. I believe there is a new flag change any day. She has been anchored of the Swedish coast since March, pending investigations.

MIKHAIL DUDIN is a true enigma. Is actually a river freighter, runs spent nuclear fuel offshore and no one bats an eye, occasionally suspect in hybrid warfare, caravan on aft deck. Does not compute!

Danish Navy left, no Swedish units visible, no air assets visible.

Danish Navy has intercepted conspicuous freighter MIKHAIL DUDIN 9057329, on Swedish territory at that. MD is interesting because spent nuclear fuel transports, odd movements and sometimes intense naval forces scrutiny. Last port was shipyard parts of St Petersburg.

Ukraine drone crews have been hammering Russia's fuel tankers last 4 nights in Azov Sea, Crimea. Claimed hits are now around 40 ships. Satellite data support this. Count has gone from around 90 to 40. Of course, some might have fled but gone they are.

GAS PACIFIC has now seemingly anchored in an anchorage ca 10-15 miles off shore. Next to her a partially laden small tanker. Oxelösund port is not expecting her and has no information regarding her (direct contact).

A Russia-affiliated, Panama-flagged LPG-tanker is being towed from Ust-Luga into Oxelösund, Sweden. The port was part of NATO logistics exercise AURORA26 very recently. During WWII port was the target of both sabotage plans and heavy fortification and now serves both RORO, bulk and oil.

Full list of tankers suspected to be involved in Russian ship-to-ship oil transfer operation by Kaliningrad last week: BHILVA, 9439383 CAI YUN, 9437983 GARASAN, 9323986 THRON, 9404948 NIGHT GLORY, 9319674 ATMOS, 9337418 PATE, 9338905

Suspected STS area Kaliningrad, July 6: CAI YUN, 9437983, a laden, sanctioned, sketchy, Sierra Leone flagged tanker, arrived from Ust-Luga, no AIS since 11:35U The rest of the AIS-data fits satellite data, no STS-activity spotted. There are now 4(5) tankers in area having arrived loaded from GOF

This is an example of STS, vessels not related. It raises risks of oil spills significantly. Or as Bloomberg puts it "it risks environmental catastrophe." Thanks BobbyJahazi2220 on youtube

Russia opens a new dangerous chapter in Baltic Sea? - STS STS entails moving oil (usually) from one tanker to another, at sea. It is done to obfuscate origin and round sanctions. Known hotspots are intl waters of Greece and Malaysia. Now, it seems to take root in Baltic Sea.

Sanctioned tanker traffic last 7 days. This is the scale of the shadow fleet* *or rather about 50-75% of it, because not all tankers slinging Russian oil are sanctioned.

Another STS example. Jun 8-10 Vietnam-flagged and sanctioned tanker NERO highly likely filled up Hong Kong-flagged, non-sanctioned FLORA by Kaliningrad. FLORA has now passed Suez heading for India with Russian oil, origin obfuscated. She never visited a real oil terminal.

6 shadow tankers deviated from normal paths last days with 5 gathered off Kaliningrad and one having left the gathering and presently steaming into Irish EEZ in North Atlantic Hypotheses: ship to ship activity (oil transfers) or more ominous: outfitting for hybrid activities? 🧵

There is ample room left within international law, especially for the falsely flagged ones, eg the ones in screenshot. Those can clearly be stopped for inspection anywhere. There is also ample room for lawfare, eg re environmental protections of the Straits as stated in Copenhagen Convention 1857.

A Swedish warship (likely Visby stealth corvette) patrolled the Kaliningrad border yesterday, for at least 6 hours. Time overlaps with the Greenpeace-incident by Fehmarn belt, where a Russian warship interrupted a protest against shadow fleet traffic. AIS-caveats apply.

Details from Swedish politician: a Greenpeace protest was under way, Russian corvette closed in at high speed, initially not replying to radio from German Coast Guard. German CG then escorted activists/politicians/media away. Ie, Russia interrupted western democratic activities.

A more full timelapse, all non-cloudy June-Aug passes for 2021-now.

Russian naval base Kronstadt, St Petersburg is unusually empty. Vacation mode for me so no proper count but timelapsing late June 2021 to now the relative emptiness is apparent. Rather blunt method, so very curious on input from people with more detailed knowledge.

Today Russian Navy corvette Soobrazitelny 531 intervened to make German media, politicians and possibly coast guard stay away from a shadow tanker in waters between Denmark and Germany.

One of the most controversial sightings was the one around Kastrup, Copenhagens airport. OSINT analysts have found eg one small plane and a police helicopter explaining parts of the observations. But there are also radar tracks of large unknown objects approaching with speed 100kph from Öresund.