Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox

Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate;

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Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· 22d

Whilst everyone else was watching the change of Prime Minister and the reshuffle, I was wondering if any of these boats in the harbour at Gourock were amongst the six belonging to local man of the people, Malcolm Offord

A photograph looking across the Firth of Clyde towards Kilcreggan on a lovely sunny day. A medium sized tanker is making its way upstream, and several small yachts dot the bay nearer the shore

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· 25d

Now I don't know about you but if I had setup a localist micro party called the "Edinburgh and East Lothian People's Party", well, for one thing, I wouldn't have stood in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, but I certainly would not stand in Clacton.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 10

Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party: Reform -> Conservative SNP -> Labour Labour <-> Conservative (just; only 1 vote more than Conservative to Reform transfers!)

Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms:

Reform to Conservative 36.5
SNP to Labour 42.4
Labour to Conservative 24.8
Conservative to Labour 28.7

Note that a majority of voters at 50.1 for Reform and a plurality of 47.9 for SNP, 47.9 for Labour and 34.8 for Conservative opted not to mark a second preference at all.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 10

Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: Reform: Southeastern Larkhall SNP: Northern Larkhall (Merryton?)/Ashgill Labour, Conservative: Northeastern Larkhall/Rosebank/Netherburn

Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was Reform 43.3%, SNP 33.5%, Labour 26.3%, Conservative 14.4%

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. SNP led in the merged district covering northern Larkhall (Merryton?) and Ashgill. Reform led in all other districts including the rest of Larkhall, Quarter, Rosebank and Netherburn.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 10

Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) by-election transfers, votes at final head-to-head stage: Reform UK: 1380 (42.3%) SNP: 1239 (37.9%) Didn't Transfer: 647 (19.8%)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 10

Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): Reform UK: 1150 (35.2%, new) SNP: 975 (29.9%, +1.0) Labour: 799 (24.5%, -8.5) Conservative: 342 (10.5%, -14) Reform UK elected stage 4.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 3

Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party: SNP -> Independent JR RUK <-> Conservative Independent JR <-> Independent RT Lib Dem -> SNP/Independent JR tie Family -> Conservative/Independent JR tie

Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms:

SNP to Ind JR 17.9
Reform to Conservative 32.9
Conservative to Reform 23.8
Ind JR to Ind RT 26.7
Ind RT to Ind JR 31.8
Lib Dem to SNP and Ind JR 19.6
Family to Conservative and Ind JR 20.4

Note that a plurality of voters for SNP at 44.4, Reform at 33.1, Conservative at 37.5, and Family at 22.2 opted not to mark a second preference at all.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 3

Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: SNP, Conservative, Lib Dem: Boddam and Hatton Reform, Ind RT, Family: Peterhead South Ind JR: Cruden Bay

Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 42.0, Reform 31.0, Conservative 23.1, Independent Ross 17.7, Independent Thomson 9.0, Lib Dem 3.1, Family 3.9

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. SNP led in districts covering Boddam, Hatton and Cruden Bay. Reform led in districts covering Peterhead South.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jul 3

Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) by-election transfers, votes at final stage 7 (vs 2022): SNP: 889 (43.8%, -7.5) Conservative: 718 (35.4%, -7.5) Didn't Transfer: 423 (20.8%, +15.0) SNP elected stage 7. First preferences chart also in this post for completeness!

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 29

George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) by-election, most popular second preference by party: SNP <-> Green Labour -> SNP Reform -> Conservative Lib Dem -> Labour Independent -> SNP Conservative -> Lib Dem TUSC -> Green ALS -> SNP

Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms:

SNP to Green 33.1
Labour to SNP 22.4
Green to SNP 53.4
Reform to Conservative 31.6
Lib Dem to Labour 22.8
Independent to SNP 16.7
Conservative to Lib Dem 20.5
TUSC to Green 45.2
ALS to SNP 30.8

Note that a plurality of voters for SNP at 36.5, Labour at 45.9, Reform at 42.4, Independent at 46.3 and Conservative at 41.8 opted not to mark a second preference at all.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 29

George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: SNP, TUSC, ALS: Hanover/Footdee Labour, Reform, Independent: City Centre Green, Lib Dem, Conservative: Pittodrie/North City Centre

Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 38.4, Labour 23.0, Green 15.3, Reform 12.3, Lib Dem 12.1, Independent 12.1, Conservative 8.7, TUSC 3.2

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. SNP led in every district including George Street, Pittodrie, Hanover and Footdee.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) by-election, most popular second preference by party: Independent <-> Lib Dem SNP -> Lib Dem Reform -> Independent / Conservative tie Conservative -> Lib Dem

Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms:

Independent to Lib Dem 25.5
Lib Dem to Independent 28.9
SNP to Lib Dem 29.0
Reform to Independent and Conservative 19.1
Conservative to Lib Dem 33.9

Note that a plurality of voters for Independent at 47.4, Lib Dem at 38.9, SNP at 39.8 and Reform at 41.5 opted not to mark a second preference at all.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: Independent: Golspie Lib Dem: Dornoch and Edderton SNP, Reform, Conservative: Brora and Helmsdale

Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was Independent 69.6, Lib Dem 57.8, SNP 19.8, Reform 11.8, Conservative 4.5

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. Independent led in the districts covering Golspie, Brora and Helmsdale. Lib Dems led in the districts covering Dornoch and Edderton.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) by-election transfers votes at final head-to-head stage 4: Independent: 1229 (47.3%) Lib Dem: 1065 (41.0%) Didn't Transfer: 303 (11.7%) Re-calced for LD vs SNP (vs 2022): LD: 1257 (48.4%, -9.6) SNP: 645 (24.8%, -5.5) Didn't Transfer: 695 (26.8%, +15.1)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

East Sutherland and Edderton (Highland) by-election, first preferences (vs 2022): Independent: 1044 (40.2%, new) Lib Dem: 854 (32.9%, -2.9) SNP: 452 (17.4%, -9.1) Reform UK: 188 (7.2%, new) Conservative: 59 (2.3%, -14.7) (20.7% non-returns vs 2022) Independent elected stage 5.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) by-election transfers, votes at final stage 8 (vs 2022): SNP: 896 (50.9%, -0.1) Labour:419 (23.8%, -11.4) Didn't Transfer: 446 (25.3%, +11.5)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 26

George Street and Harbour (Aberdeen) by-election, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 583 (33.1%, -9.1) LAB: 255 (14.5%, -5.3) GRN: 232 (13.2%, -0.7) RUK: 177 (10.1%, new) LD: 162 (9.2%, -2.2) IND: 162 (9.2%, new) CON: 146 (8.3%, -2.7) TUSC: 31 (1.8%, new) ALS: 13 (0.7%, new) SNP elected stage 8.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 19

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (Westminster) by-election result: SNP: 9802 (41.2%, +5.9) Conservative: 4524 (19%, +3.5) Reform UK: 4341 (18.3%, +9.6) Labour: 3651 (15.4%, -18) Lib Dem: 1452 (6.1%, +1) SNP HOLD

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 19

Aberdeen South (Westminster) by-election result: Conservative: 14308 (49.5%, +25.1) SNP: 8258 (28.6%, -4.2) Reform UK: 2478 (8.6%, +1.7) Labour: 1550 (5.4%, -19.4) Lib Dem: 1270 (4.4%, -1.9) Green: 974 (3.4%, -0.1) ADF: 59 (0.2%, new) Conservative GAIN from SNP

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 15

The concluding paragraphs especially were absolutely spot on, weren't they? You'll forgive me for further "turns out I'm pretty good at this whole elections commentary malarkey" posting but if there's an award for "most vindicated commentator", it better be in the post to Chez BBS as we speak!

To peel away a party’s voters, you must understand what motivates them. In misidentifying Green voters as being SNP at their core, it’s no surprise opponents have failed to stymie the party’s growth. Looking ahead to 2026, the other parties and their commentariat outriders have a simple choice.

On the one hand, you can get real about the Greens and come up with a credible strategy to win their voters over. On the other, you can cling to comforting myths – and in the SNP’s case, to a massive dollop of the repellent entitlement that you once derided Labour for. Choose more wisely than Yousaf, or else the chances of Ballot Box Scotland’s post-2026 writeup saying “this is another record result for the Greens” only get higher.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 15

I've been slow to finish up some last little bits of post-Holyrood election analysis I wanted to do, as I've understandably been a bit knackered. I think this will be the final main entry, and I expect A Certain Category of Person to be Extremely Normal about both the subject and the conclusions...

There are lots of reasons why people choose to vote for the party they did, and poll respondents could give more than one, but for the purposes of this piece I'm highlighting two:

"Their values are better aligned with mine than those of other parties" - I've shorthanded this as "Values" and it uses the deeper party colour in the chart below.
"My priority was to stop another party winning" - I've shorthanded this as "Tactical" and it uses the lighter party colour in the chart below.

For each party, the values versus tactical figures are as follows:
Green 72% vs 16%
SNP 50% vs 10%
Lib Dem 50% vs 20%
Conservative 46% vs 28%
Reform UK 43% vs 14%
Labour 37% vs 33%

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 13

The scenes we saw in Glasgow earlier this week, as racists took to the streets to intimidate and threaten ethnic minority Glaswegians were despicable, and this afternoon we showed a tiny, outnumbered crowd of bigots that we don't want their hatred in our city.

A photo of the anti-racist crowd in Glaagow - a sign in the centre of the shot reads "Youse are aw boggin"

A photo showing the scale of the crowd at the anti-racist demo in Glasgow covering the top of Buchanan Street

A scene as the fascists are escorted out of the kettle by police, having been massively outnumbered and mocked for hours

A photo of the speakers at the anti-racist demo. Green MSP Iris Duane is speaking, behind her you can also see Labour MSPs Pauline McNeill and Paul Sweeney.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 9

Portobello and Craigmillar was a comfortable 13% lead for the SNP over Labour after transfers. SNP likely favoured here given Labour's current woes. Curveball: the Greens did so well last month that they might be in contention, but definitely not the favourites.

Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 37.4, Labour 23.9, Green 16.2, Conservative 15.3, Lib Dem 4.3, Independent 1.6, Alba 1.3

Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 48.5, Labour 35.4, Didn't Transfer 16.1

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Conservatives led in district covering Duddingston, SNP led in all other districts including Portobello, Joppa, Brunstane, Newcraghall, Niddrie and Craigmillar.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 9

Edinburgh by-elections due on the 3rd of September. In 2022, Labour beat Greens by 2% after transfers. Given what happened last month, Greens should surely be ahead. If they win, that'd be only their second by-election win ever. Curveball: Lib Dems have a formidable local machine.

Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Labour 24.1, Green 23.0, SNP 19.2, Conservative 17.6, Lib Dem 16.1

Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 44.2, Green 42.2, Didn't Transfer 13.6

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Labour led in districts covering Newington, Sciennes, Blackford and West Mains. Greens led in districts covering Dumbiedykes and St Leonard's. SNP led in district covering Prestonfield.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 7

Oh, here we go, first results in from one of the 9 parishes, for the seats that are elected Jersey-wide, i.e. a part result. Meanwhile, what did we get last month in Scotland? Silence silence silence silence silence silence silence silence WHOLE REGION RESULT FOR EDINBURGH AND LOTHIANS EAST. Dire!

10:48pm

VOTES FROM TRINITY – SENATOR:

Ian Gorst tops the polls in Trinity for Senator with 815 votes. The full set of results in Trinity for Senators are as follows:

Martin Aliga: 199

Tom Binet: 694

Mark Boleat: 598

Alan Breckon: 181

Karl Busch: 59

Guy de Faye: 106

Lyndon Farnham: 731

Ian Gorst: 815

Serena Kersten Guthrie: 569

Mary Le Hegarat: 578

Alan Le Pavoux: 290

Steve Luce: 452

Alan Maclean: 655

Sam Mézec: 258

Helen Miles: 708

Elaine Millar: 753

Bernard Place: 309

These are not the final results for Senator. Once all parishes have announced their vote counts, the 9 elected Senators can be confirmed. Keep checking Vote.je as the results come in over the course of the night.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 7

Even with Labour's weak position atm (plus in 2022 that Independent was former Lab), this is not a strong area for SNP, so can't see the latter winning. Instead, it'll come down to how transfers flow: in theory, SNP voters should favour Labour, but might not be enough to beat a strong Reform result.

Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Labour 33.0, SNP 28.9, Conservative 24.5, Independent 10.3, Lib Dem 2.4, Libertarian 0.6, UKIP 0.3

Note: the Independent candidate was elected as Labour councillor in 2017.

Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 49.0, SNP 31.2, Didn't Transfer 19.8

Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. SNP led in the district around the Merryton railway station. Labour led in every other district, including those covering the rest of Larkhall, Quarter, Ashgill, Rosebank and Netherburn.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 7

Very quiet field for Larkhall by-election on the 9th of July: no Green, Lib Dem or other candidates. Larkhall has a particular reputation that leads me to believe that Reform will do very, very well here: indeed, they narrowly beat Labour on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse list vote last month

Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Conservative Gary Burns, Reform UK Fiona McDermott, SNP Leigh Payne, Labour Chris Roarty.

Vacating is Labour, 2022 winner is Labour, runner-up SNP, margin of 17.8%. Cause is the death of Lesley McDonald (Labour). By-election is on the 9th of July 2026. Prediction is Labour-Reform Tossup.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 3

New Scottish Independence poll, Norstat 27-29 May (changes vs 27-30 Apr): Yes ~ 49% (-3) No ~ 45% (+2) Don't Know ~ 5% (nc) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): Yes ~ 52% (-3 / +7) No ~ 48% (+3 / -7)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 3

New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 27-29 May (vs 27-30 Apr): SNP ~ 34% (+5) RUK ~ 17% (-1) LAB ~ 16% (-3) CON ~ 10% (-4) GRN ~ 10% (+2) LD ~ 9% (-1) No Holyrood figures in this (for a mercy from my perspective of "do I have the time"...)

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox· Jun 1

In a limited field in 2022, SNP came out ahead of the Conservatives, but both parties have lost a lot of support since, and Reform's surge was strongest in this part of the country: SNP narrowly held the constituency, but Reform led on the list vote, which council results look a lot more like.