Bastian Herre
@bastianherre
Politics & Society Lead @ourworldindata.org. I make research on democracy, human rights, and conflict easier to access and understand. he/him Check out my work:
What are the largest cities in the world? That's a question that isn't easy to answer, because countries define "city" quite differently. But now there is new data from the European Commission that uses satellites to make countries comparable. Turns out the largest city in the world is Jakarta!
I was surprised to see that China has only 1.6 million immigrants. That's close to the number of immigrants in Ireland or New Zealand. And those countries' entire populations are less than 1% of China's. Even Japan (which in my mind was the big low-immigration country) has more than twice as many.
Many maps offer snapshots of how the world looked at one point in time. But few track changes over time. That’s why I like the CShapes data so much: it identifies all independent states, their dependent territories, borders, and capitals for each year between 1886 and 2019.
What's the best chart making the case for democracy? The one below is a strong contender for me: there have been very few famines under democratic rule. But I would be curious to hear about others!
It's often assumed that government ideology matters only in rich democracies. My new article suggests that's not the case: in a global analysis, leftist governments intervene more in markets than rightist governments. Who governs really matters, also in other parts of the world. shorturl.at/vAloy
Without reliable data, it can be difficult to make political decisions. But while rich countries have up-to-date surveys on poverty, health, etc., those in poorer countries are years, if not decades, old. And that's where the data is especially needed. data360.worldbank.org/en/int/atlas...
Very interesting idea! FWIW, I would not cite the UN claim that civilian deaths in conflict surged by forty percent globally in 2024. I looked into it, and it seems to be based on highly incomplete data from only about a dozen conflicts worldwide. The best available data shows no such increase:
Thanks a lot for saying more! Do you think the same holds for other long-term democracies, such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and the United States? Or do you find those estimates more credible?
Do you think this is a problem of present bias, or of aggregation? If we look at the sub-indices, elections are much freer and fairer than back then. It's freedom of expression and civil liberties that are worse. Should these sub-indices be higher? Or should their aggregation work differently?
More than 40% of countries have now been led by a woman — up from just over 10% in 1990. Almost all of this rise has happened in democracies.
This is a chart I find genuinely shocking every time I see it: In 2025, barely any countries were led by women. For every woman, there were more than 9 men. The world still has far to go towards full equality.
FWIW, I do see Orban's loss as evidence that the world isn't getting less democratic. At the same time, I take the expert surveys seriously that suggest the world has become less democratic in recent years. And that the number of countries with elected governments and legislatures has decreased.
Looking at the sub-indices, V-Dem records the biggest decline in the freedom of expression. That decline, in turn, seems at least in part driven by more journalist harassment, self-censorship, and media bias. ourworldindata.org/grapher/key-... ourworldindata.org/grapher/key-...
New data from V-Dem suggests that US democracy is now similar to what it was in 1965, which might sound strange. That's because the overall score is the same, but for different reasons: Elections are more democratic now, and civil liberties stronger — but checks on government are far weaker.
Argh, I messed up the reference year — here's the chart comparing 2024 with 2025:
People in countries around the world — such as Brazil, Poland, Thailand, and Zambia — have recently done exactly that, and turned around recent attempts at autocratization. People in the US can do the same.
However, with still largely free and fair elections, broad freedoms of expression and association, and a very strong civil society, the country has the potential to continue confronting the ongoing autocratization through voting, protesting, and broader organizing and advocacy.
Relative to other recent autocratizers, like Hungary, India, or Turkey, democratic decline in the US has happened much faster, if still to a lesser extent.
If we look beyond checks on the government and elections, we also see significant declines in how deliberative and egalitarian the political system in the US is.
Looking more closely at the conduct of democratic elections, we see that the freedom of expression has declined significantly. That indicator isn’t still tied to the 2024 elections.
The data suggests that judicial and legislative checks as well as private civil liberties have especially suffered. The democratic conduct of elections has declined less — though that might be in part because no national elections were held in 2024.
The US has fallen from being one of the most democratic countries in the world to one closer to the middle of the pack.
Its political system is now more comparable to countries like Colombia, South Africa, or Sri Lanka.
The US is now substantially less democratic than its previous peers, such as Brazil, Germany, Japan, or the UK.
The US also saw a decline during the first Trump administration. But last year’s decline was much bigger.
New data from V-Dem, which tracks democracy worldwide, points to a sharp decline in US democracy in 2025. Checks on the government and the freedom of expression have especially declined. But the data also points to what could halt and reverse the decline. Here’s what the data shows. 🧵
Maybe I am missing something, but I don't think these indices move in lockstep with each other when we look at them separately, without including democratic electoral institutions in each. Do you see it differently? ourworldindata.org/grapher/key-...
The world population has more than doubled since the late 1960s. But famines kill far fewer people today than back then. That's because the world has increased food production even more, reduced poverty, and seen more accountable governments.
I don't think his approval rating has changed much since the start of the war — but public support for the war has been low, especially compared to other wars: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...
Why does the price of urea matter? Because billions of people rely on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. To be exact, it was 3.54 billion people in 2015. The price of oil gets the headlines, but this is what could affect the most people. ourworldindata.org/grapher/worl...