John Berlinsky 🇨🇦

@berlinskyjohn

Victoria, BC Retired physics prof and, in case you can't tell, a Liberal 🇨🇦 #IStandWithTrudeau #LiberalMajority #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 #MarkCarney

3,547 Following2,311 Followers2,916 Posts

Bluesky

Is this your profile?Claim it and berlinskyjohn.dirty.social is yours.Claim profile

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 27d

RBC Capital Markets bullish on major Canadian Oil & Gas producers.

Fueled by elevated oil prices, we estimate that Canada’s majors—Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor
Energy, Cenovus Energy and Imperial Oil—will generate combined second-quarter free funds flow
(before dividends, including A&D) of $13.2 billion (up $5.1 billion sequentially) after paying some $6.9
billion in Crown royalties and $4.4 billion in current taxes (all jurisdictions), while their net debt fell about
$8.3 billion amid share repurchases of $3.2 billion.
Just what the recently executed tri-lateral MOU (aimed at a one million bbl/d west coast bitumen
pipeline and oil sands decarbonization) amongst the Pathways Alliance and governments of Canada
and Alberta means for the upstream growth initiatives, capital investment and shareholder returns of
Canada’s majors are sure to be focal topics on forthcoming conference calls. We do not envision any
major dislocation from the re-engineered model of free cash generation and shareholder returns which
emerged following the pandemic, but growth will likely play a bigger role.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 28d

Fact-Check: Inaccurate
The statement from the Bluesky post contains several factual errors. It conflates different individuals, their roles, and the distinct financial and ethical mechanisms used by the Prime Minister.
Here is the breakdown of the inaccuracies:
• The "Blind Trust" vs. The Ethics Screen: The blind trust holding Prime Minister Mark Carney's assets is legally managed by an independent, arm's-length trustee—not by his staff. The post is mistakenly referring to an ethics screen, which is a separate mechanism designed to ensure Carney is not involved in government decisions that could benefit the assets he held before they were placed in the trust.
• The Chief of Staff's Identity: Michael Sabia is not Mark Carney's Chief of Staff. That position is currently held by Marc-André Blanchard.
• Michael Sabia's Actual Role: Michael Sabia is the Clerk of the Privy Council (appointed in July 2025). This role makes him the head of Canada's non-partisan federal public service, not a political staffer.
• Who Administers the Screen: The ethics screen is jointly administered by both Marc-André Blanchard (Chief of Staff) and Michael Sabia (Clerk of the Privy Council).
While it is true that Michael Sabia and Mark Carney work closely together, the post is incorrect in claiming Sabia manages the blind trust and incorrectly labels him as the Chief of Staff.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 28d

Policies have always fallen short of what countries promised while even the promises fell short of what is needed. What's important is that Carney is moving fast to double electricity in Canada which is the most effective thing we can do. Also you can forget about oil. It has already hit its peak.

The 'age of electricity' will send fossil fuels into decline.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 28d

Alberta would be doubling oil production while demand is falling.

World energy demand for 2015-2050. Renewables quadruple, while nuclear doubles, coal drops to half, and oil and natural gas peak and decline slightly, remaining relatively flat.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 28d

The figure below shows the future of energy sources for electricity production. Solar will soar while coal plummets. Hydro and nuclear will increase, while natural gas will remain relatively flat (as PM Carney has indicated). 1/2

Solar generation of electricity is set to quadruple by 2030, sending coal power tumbling.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 29d

Here is a graphic that he included.

Electricity grows. The whole pie shrinks.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· 29d

Here is part of the PM's statement on electrification from his June 30, 2026 video. The full text can be found here. medium.com/p/0a9b9a1b0695

Electrification
Thirdly, we are recognizing that, while we have no control over the price of oil, we have a lot of control over the price of our electricity. And this makes the issue for me a simple one. We can’t allow the ability to power our lives and put food on our table to be forever at the mercy of outside forces. We need affordable, homegrown energy, and a lot of it. Our answer to domestic energy affordability, security and sustainability is the same answer as Sir Adam Beck’s: to power our way to a stronger, more resilient, more independent country that works for all. Because the path to affordability is electrification. The path to competitiveness is electrification. The path to sustainability is electrification.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 12

Cows creating heat island in the snow.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 9

From the Financial Times: Data centres will dominate the use of increased electricity supply in the US for 2025-30, while transportation (EVs) is expected to dominate in the EU. Canada will likely be more like the EU than the US. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Data centres account for much of the growth of US electric power demand whereas transportation dominates in the EU.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 6

What's happened to the price of oil since the start of the Mid-East war? It's fallen back below $70 even though hostilities continue. Now think where oil will go when the wars end in the Mid-East and Ukraine. It will plummet which is why no new pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast will be built.

Price of oil was below $70 before the Mid-East war started in late February, rose over $100 during the war, and has now fallen below $70 again even though the Strait of Hormoz is still blocked.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 6

CAD/USD at lowest since 3-31-2025, presumably due to US threat not to renew NAFTA and also the recent drop in oil prices.

Canadian dollar falls to its lowest value since March 31, 2025 at 0.7023USD/CAD.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 5

Storm in Washington, DC

Storm clouds and lightening over the Mall in washington DC

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 2

Carney and Smith are speaking about the Alberta pipeline proposal today at 5:00pm Pacific time.

PM Carney and Alta. Premier Smith Outline Proposed Pipeline Project
CPAC

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jul 2

I'm not sure what market you're looking at Max. Here's a chart, which, as far as I can tell, is for as long as NovaRed has been trading. It claims that the 52-week range is 0.5300 - 1.7300, so right now it's near the bottom of that range.

OTC Chart for NOVARED Mining showing it ended today at $0.60, near the bottom of its range for 2026.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jun 30

In case you hadn't noticed ...

The ranks of the very rich are growing.
25 million high net worth individuals from around the world control nearly $100tn in wealth.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jun 18

To learn more about how the rich avoid responsibility, read Offshore: Stealth Wealth and the New Colonialism (A Norton Short) by Brooke Harrington (Author)

Cover photo for Offshore: Stealth Wealth and the New Colonialism (A Norton Short)
by Brooke Harrington (Author)

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jun 18

Here's where Canada has been shipping LNG (from RBC Capital Markets). Our biggest customer is South Korea. It may not be a growing market, but it appears to be a steady one.

Cumulative shipments by LNG Canada from Kitimat to Asian customers. Total of 366.3 bcf in 99 shipments to South Korea (170.2 bcf), Japan (77.7 bcf), China (66.6 bcf) and Taiwan (25.9 bcf).

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Jun 3

From meeting of RBC with Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (BEP)

Incredibly bullish on batteries. Management indicated that they were incredibly bullish on battery storage over the next 3-5 years,
which reflects about 25% of its development pipeline. BEP has a global footprint, and believes that the cost reduction and available
capacity / firming revenues make projects economic. Management believes that battery storage is ideal for grids with a large
concentration of renewable, hyperscalers that want clean energy, and providing generation during peak demand. Management
expects solar plus battery storage to be the dominant generation to be deployed within 5 years.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· May 18

After a bit of work to get things in consistent units, it breaks down like this:

Added demand category (2050). Approximate increase

Transportation electrification. 150–215 TWh

New industrial activity 96–140 TWh

AI data centres ~88 TWh

Housing growth ~16–52 TWh

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· May 7

DECISION MAKING & NATIONAL UNITY UNDER THREAT: Foreign Interference, Cognitive Sovereignty, and the Alberta Referendum disinfowatch.org/wp-content/u...

Executive Summary
Foreign adversaries are exploiting the Alberta separatist debate to erode social cohesion,
deepen domestic divisions, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and amplify perceptions
of political instability that damage investor confidence in Canada. In this crisis, Canada’s
cognitive sovereignty — the ability of Canadians to make political decisions freely,
without foreign coercion or manipulation — is not simply under threat; it is being actively
contested by foreign actors seeking to shape Canada’s democratic future. Three distinct
actor types exploiting the Alberta separatist debate are in focus: Russia, the United States, and
economic opportunists using AI. While motives and methods differ, impacts are similar:
normalize separation, amplify distrust, portray Canada as internally divided and politically
unstable, and create uncertainty that could deter international investment.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· May 5

They also fail to mention that, in spite of reduced further investment, the production of oil from the Oil Sands continued to increase and is still increasing to this day. 3/4

‪Alberta Oil Sands Production (ex-mining) Crosses 2.0 Million bbl/d in November 2025

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· May 5

Without saying anything about what happened to the price of oil in that period, where it dropped to $50/barrel. It was their own decision not to invest more capital during this glut in supply.

Price of oil since 2000, showing the shop drop from $100/barrel to $50/barrel that occurred in 2015.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· May 5

This industry is absolutely insufferable. They bemoan the fact that investment in the Oil Sands plummeted in the mid-teens 1/n

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Apr 28

Shell and other energy giants sold their Canadian Oil & Gas assets in 2017 when oil was $50/bbl. Now they're buying back in with oil over $100/bbl. It's the old Sell Low - Buy High Strategy.

Chart of price of crude oil showing that oil was around $50/barrel in 2017 while it has risen to 100/barrel today.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Apr 24

A better question you should be asking is why all of the continuing boil water advisories are in Ontario and Manitoba. Provinces have a roll to play in this.

Map of First Nations boil water advisories showing that all remaining ones are in Ontario and Manitoba.

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Apr 24

Neskantaga FNation water purification plant is currently under construction.

Neskantaga Public Water System
Region : ONTARIO
Type of advisory : Boil water advisory

Date Advisory Set : 1995-02-01
Long term advisory since : 1996-02-01
Date Advisory Lifted :

Population : 101 to 500 people
Corrective Measure : Upgrade and expansion of existing treatment plant
Project Phase : Under construction

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Apr 18

Freddy and the Bean Home News (Freddy the Pig Book 10)
by Walter R. Brooks (Author), Kurt Wiese (Illustrator)

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Mar 22

Welcome to

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Mar 10

From comments on Edward Luce article in FT.

it took America two decades to replace the Taliban with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It took Trump just over a week to replace one Khamenei with another

John Berlinsky 🇨🇦@berlinskyjohn· Mar 10

From RBC Capital Markets