Brian McNoldy
@bmcnoldy
Univ. of Miami hurricane researcher 🌀 living in New Mexico 🏜. Husband and dog dad. 🏳️🌈
The first third of hurricane season is behind us in terms of time, but in terms of historical activity, only the first 8% is behind us! On average, HALF of the season's activity occurs in just one month, from late August through late September.
I guess I keep a lot of files around. Here's a satellite image from 27 years ago today.
It's only July 24 and #Miami has already spent more time above a 100°F heat index than in any entire year prior to 1995. The half-way hump of heat index season is the second week of August, so there's a looooong way to go. 🥵
The first two months of the Atlantic hurricane season are just about over, and here's the map of activity so far. There will likely not be any new activity for the remainder of July.
18 years ago today: Hurricane Dolly (2008) exhibited bizarre and dramatic inner-core structural variability during a 6-hour rapid intensification and deepening event just prior to making landfall in southern Texas at 1800 UTC 23 July. Related publication: journals.ametsoc.org/.../140/12/m...
For track, it's a mixed bag, aside from NHC (OFCL), the top three models were Google DeepMind (GDMI), HWRF (HWFI), and GFS (AVNI). For intensity, NHC (OFCL) was best overall. Two consensus "models" (HCCA and IVCN) did well, and Google DeepMind was the best individual model overall. [2/2]
#Bertha 2026 makes landfall in eastern #Louisiana. One of the least impactful tropical storm landfalls that I can remember... barely any rain or wind on land, and minimal storm surge.
#Albuquerque radar loop fans: I updated the beam elevation and beam blockage map to include partial beam blockage (beginning with 50% in the lightest gray shadows). Available at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/radar/kabx/ under the radar loop.
We're in the thick of #monsoon season in #Albuquerque... the peak dewpoint so far today is 61°F, and it has not dropped below 50° since 5pm on Monday (only for an hour). This chart shows the climatology of 50° dewpoints expressed in terms of the number of hours per day that threshold is exceeded.
The ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is at a record low for the date.
Today is the 5th consecutive day with record-breaking high tides (for the dates) in #Miami, and the records are being broken by a hefty 0.3-0.5-foot margin. Fortunately, water levels are climatologically at a pretty low point of the year now... King Tide season will ramp up in about a month. 🌊
#Albuquerque had its most humid day of the year so far with 22 hours of a 50°F+ dewpoint on Friday. It's definitely #monsoon season! bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/abq/
#Miami has only had 1 day so far this year that met the heat advisory criteria (heat index of 105°F+ for 2+ hours). But through July 12, this year is in 3rd place for time spent above a 90° heat index, 2nd place for time spent above 95°, and 3rd place for time spent above 100°.
The July update of the NMME ensemble shows a peak ensemble mean value of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of +2.62°C this winter. That would be a new record-strong #ElNiño... the previous strongest was +2.42°C, in the winter of 1982-83.
HOWEVER, the ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf is *below* average... very far from a record high.
The sea surface temperature averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is a record high for the date, and warmer than it normally would be even at the peak in mid-August.
The Earth is coming up to #aphelion on July 6... that's the day the planet is the furthest away from the sun all year. ☀️ (We were closest to the sun back on January 3, and that point in our orbit is called perihelion.) [1/2]
The monthly sea surface temperature data are in from June, and the latest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value is up to +0.51°C, just into #ElNiño territory. The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value is +0.94°C, though that index is no longer used as the official metric.
We are in the peak of peach season here (and our dwarf peach tree was prolific), so today's creation to bring to a neighbor's brunch is peach Caprese salad.
I just realized that in the 50 years since I was born, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has risen by 100 ppm... from 332 to 432. 🤯😬📈 We likely crossed the 232 threshold about 200 years ago, and will likely cross the 532 threshold in about 40 years.
This question comes up a good bit, so here's a summary of #Miami hurricane activity over the past century, filtered by ENSO phase. Of the 60 hurricanes that passed within 200 miles of the city, 11 of them occurred during El Niño... the strongest of which were in 1929 and 2004.
New maps added to my two regional radar loop webpages, #Miami & #Albuquerque! These show the elevation of the radar beam from the lowest scan angle. For Albuquerque, approximate terrain shadows are plotted too. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/radar/kamx/ bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/radar/kabx/
4 years ago today, I got the biggest surprise. Not only did I not know I was nominated or in the running, I didn't know I got this honor from @miaminewtimes.com until a neighbor congratulated me!
New batch of ENSO model output (as of June 22)... the average among the dynamical models (thick red line) peaks at about +2.6°C for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region late this year. That would be nearly identical to the 2015-16 #ElNiño.
Have a happy Martini Friday 🍸, meaningful Juneteenth 🕊, and reflective Solstice Eve ☀️.
Over the past five decades, the median date of first named storm formation is June 18, so #Arthur is right on schedule. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/06/trop...