Brett Favaro

@brettfavaro

Conservation scientist. Tweets about climate, oceans, & sustainable development. Views my own, and do not necessarily reflect views of employer. He/him.

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Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· 29d

Everyone please stop what you're doing and say hi to Monoco, our new pet hamster

A very cute white and orange hamster in her cage

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· Jul 15

Another W for President Eby

Picture of David Eby in sunglasses and a Hawaiian shirt

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· Jun 28

Animated television still from The Simpsons depicting five characters in a split-screen telephone conversation. Center panel: Krusty the Clown, visibly agitated, speaking into a red telephone while holding a card. Surrounding panels clockwise from upper left: unknown male (blue hair, pink dress); a heavyset man in a dim room holding a telephone receiver; another character (seated in chair, relaxed); Apu Nahasapeemapetilon (holding receiver, papers visible). Visual style consistent with early-season hand-drawn animation

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· Jun 25

Posted on LinkedIn by @globalecoguy.bsky.social: Actual versus projected buildout for solar power vs. carbon capture

Two-panel chart comparing actual performance versus modeled projections for two climate technologies, spanning 2010–2040.

Panel 1 — Carbon Capture Capacity (megatons)
Line chart. Y-axis: 0 to 4,000+ megatons. A single dark red line (actual carbon storage) runs nearly flat from 2010 to approximately 2025, remaining well below 500 megatons. Beginning around 2023–2025, a fan of teal/blue projection lines diverges sharply upward, with the highest trajectories reaching approximately 4,000–5,000 megatons by 2040 and the lowest remaining near 500 megatons. Actual performance is far below all but the most conservative projections.

Panel 2 — Solar Power (terawatt-hours)
Line chart. Y-axis: 0 to 2,000+ terawatt-hours. A single dark red line (actual solar electricity production) shows exponential growth from near zero in 2010, rising steeply to approximately 2,000 TWh by 2023–2024. A dense fan of teal/blue projection lines originates around 2023–2025 and extends to 2040, spanning a wide range from approximately 200 to 2,000 TWh. Actual solar production meets or exceeds the upper range of nearly all projections.

Implied contrast: Carbon capture has drastically underperformed projections. Solar power has dramatically outperformed them

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· Jun 20

Wesley Crusher getting arrested for stepping on the grass

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 26

Nothing more satisfying than an odometer without a big round number

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

A transition in the refrigerants themselves is also occurring from high to low GWP refrigerants

EHPA slide titled "The Refrigerant Transition" combining policy text with an illustrated diagram titled "Refrigerant Trends in Europe's Heat Pump Market."
The left panel notes that heat pumps use either fluorinated F-gases or non-fluorinated natural gas alternatives, governed by two EU frameworks: the F-gas Regulation limiting high global warming potential gases, and PFAS restrictions addressing environmental persistence.
The right diagram shows four refrigerant options — R32 (GWP 675, A2L class), R290 propane (GWP 3, A3 class), R744 CO₂ (GWP 1, A1 class), and HFO blends (low GWP, A2L class) — and maps regional adoption trends: Central Europe (Germany and Netherlands) favoring R290 and CO₂ solutions; Southern Europe (France and Italy) undergoing incentive-driven transition; and Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland) showing high heat pump penetration. Engineering priorities going forward are identified as low GWP, safe design, and regulatory compliance.

EHPA slide titled "R290 from Challenge to Solution" combining refrigerant performance points with a stacked bar chart from the HP Keymark Database showing European heat pump refrigerant certification shares in 2017, 2021, and 2024.
Key properties of R290 propane: virtually no GWP; strong thermodynamic performance at low outdoor temperatures and moderate pressures; higher flow temperatures of 70–80°C versus 60°C for R32 or R410A systems.
The chart shows a clear transition: R410A dominated at 86% in 2017; R32 rose to 79% by 2021; by 2024 R32 had fallen to 47% while R290 reached 38% of new certifications, with R410A at 8% and other refrigerants making up the remainder. The trend notes R410A dominated in 2016/17, R32 peaked in 2021, and the shift to R290 has accelerated since 2022.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

Limited supply of trained workers increases costs to people trying to adopt the tech

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

In Germany, landlords have to share the carbon cost with tenants. This provides incentive for landlords to upgrade

EHPA slide titled "Higher Upfront Costs" presenting six heat pump business models in a flow diagram table, comparing end user financial obligations and outcomes.
Key points stated: higher upfront costs versus fossil fuel boilers are a key barrier; innovative models such as Heat-as-a-Service are emerging; and Germany's split incentive policy requires landlords to share CO2 costs with tenants.
The six models and their end-user financial profiles: Traditional (CAPEX and OPEX); Service-Based models including Energy/Heat as a Service and Energy Service Agreement (no CAPEX, OPEX only); Heat Pump Subscription/Rent (no CAPEX, OPEX only); On-Bill Financing (no CAPEX, OPEX only); Variable Electricity (CAPEX, lower OPEX); and Variable Electricity plus Grid Services (CAPEX, lower OPEX), the last involving an aggregator connecting the end user to utilities, grid services, and distribution system operato

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

Again, the cost of electricity vs gas is the strongest predictor of heat pump uptake in a country. And remember: cheap gas, expensive electricity, is a policy choice.

European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) slide titled "Low Electricity to Gas Price Ratios (E2G)," presenting two choropleth maps of Europe. Data source: Eurostat.
The left map shows household electricity-to-gas price ratios. Most countries are shaded orange or red, indicating ratios above 2.5, consistent with the accompanying text that households in most European countries pay over twice as much for electricity as for gas. Nordic countries and a few others show lower ratios.
The right map shows industrial electricity-to-gas price ratios using a finer color scale. The pattern is similar — most countries show ratios above 2.0 — with the accompanying text noting that industry also pays over twice as much for electricity as for gas in most countries. Northern countries such as Norway and Finland appear in darker shades indicating higher ratios, while central and eastern European countries vary across the mid-range.

EHPA slide titled "Low Electricity to Gas Price Ratios (E2G)" presenting a scatter plot of heat pump sales per 1,000 households (x-axis) against the residential electricity-to-gas price ratio (y-axis) for European countries in 2023.
Three annotated zones illustrate the inverse relationship: high E2G ratio countries (UK, Belgium) show the lowest heat pump sales; mid-ratio countries cluster in the 0–20 sales range; and low E2G ratio countries (Norway, Finland, Sweden) show the highest sales at 30–60 units per 1,000 households.
Key conclusions stated: low E2G ratios drive heat pump uptake; electricity prices should be no more than twice gas prices; and a strong correlation exists between E2G ratios and taxation on electricity.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

Key barriers - up front cost, lack of awareness, and insufficient skilled workforce And there you go, the whole reason I came here today. It's crystal clear: We need more training seats.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

Papa: Heat pumps are reliable for industrial heat pumps that make industrial process heating up to 200 C Biggest barrier is awareness. They work, and are affordable. Sector is poised to explode in growth.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 21

Final talk: Saverio Papa Heat pumps are security tools, particularly for EU. Each war further jeopardizes their security. You cannot mitigate this risk without decarbonizing building heating

Ember slide titled "Energy Security" combining key statistics with a bar chart titled "The EU is more reliant on fossil imports than other major economies," showing fossil imports as a share of primary energy consumption (%) for G20 countries in 2023, with bar height representing total primary energy consumption in exajoules.
Key statistics: 57% of energy consumed in the EU is imported fossil fuel; €340 billion import value of fossil fuels in 2025; €35 billion in additional spending since March 2026 due to the Hormuz crisis.
The chart segments countries into high importers (Japan, South Korea), importers (EU highlighted in blue, India), mid-range (China), exporters (United States, Brazil), and high exporters (Russia, Canada, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia). The EU's large bar area reflects both high total consumption and heavy import dependence. Data source: Ember calculations based on IEA World Energy Balances.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Lazarovic: need to make electrification normative Be prepared to "prebunk" misinformation "I too heard heat pumps didn't work. But then I installed one, and wow!"

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Love this: "when it dies, electrify!" When something powered by fossil fuels reaches end of life, thats *the most important* opportunity to fuel switch

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

New session: How to influence homeowner heat pump purchase decisions Fun trivia - CCS is the company that sold me my own heat pump (Not carbon capture and storage: Combined Comfort Systems)

Building Decarbonization Alliance panel slide titled "Say Yes to the Best: Influencing homeowner heat pump purchase decisions and unlocking contractor adoption," scheduled May 20, 2026, 3:45–4:30pm.
Five participants shown with headshots and titles: Moderator Steven Pacifico, Associate ED, BDA; Panelist Sarah Lazarovic, Creative Strategist and Lead, Electric Living; Panelist Simon Miller, Owner, Porcupine Mechanical Ltd.; Panelist Heathe Thompson, Director of Operations, Combined Comfort Systems; and Panelist, CEO, 1Click Energy Solutions.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Here's what's in the program...

BCIT slide titled "Program Structure" showing a six-course curriculum table for the Residential Air to Air Heat Pump Specialist microcredential, with columns for course number and name, alternative equivalent courses through HRAI, and badged competency.
Courses 1–3 are TECA Quality First offerings covering heat loss and heat gain calculations, principles of moving air, and residential air-to-air heat pump design. Course 4 is a BCIT course on residential heat pump system retrofit design. Courses 5A and 5B are BCIT hands-on installation skills courses, with 5B specifically for Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics; regional lab offerings begin Fall 2026 and rolling registration opens late June 2026. Prerequisites for Course 5A include trade qualification and ODS/ODP certification.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Now Mary McWilliam is up: This is an upskilling microcredential for tradespeople NOT a replacement for a trade It's specifically for small heat pumps in residential units

BCIT slide titled "Residential Air to Air Heat Pump Specialist," featuring four photographs of technicians installing and servicing heat pump equipment. The program is created and delivered in partnership by TECA, Quality First, the Home Performance Stakeholder Council, and BCIT's Zero Energy/Emissions Buildings Learning Centre. A QR code and contact information are provided for registration.

BCIT slide titled "BC Trades 'Ready' for Upskilling" describing the Residential Air to Air Heat Pump Specialist microcredential from BCIT's Zero Energy/Emissions Buildings Learning Centre.
The microcredential comprises 137 technical training hours including 45 hours of hands-on skill assessment, covering both ductless and ducted air-to-air systems. Eligibility is restricted to journeypersons or final-level apprentices in five trades: Plumber, Pipefitter/Steamfitter, Gasfitter, Sheet Metal Worker, and Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanic. A table shows the full trade qualification hour requirements for four of those trades, ranging from 600 technical plus 3,000 work-based hours (B Gasfitter) to 990 technical plus 6,210 work-based hours (Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanic).

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Here is the timeline of changes Seems more RACM seats are needed

HPSC slide titled "When do the Changes Come into Effect?" presenting a three-column timeline of HPCN membership eligibility changes.
September 1, 2026 applies to new registrants: eligible trades in the Lower Mainland, RACMs province-wide, and closure of HPCN eligibility for non-eligible trades and non-RACMs. September 1, 2027 applies the same rules to existing members, with non-eligible trade and non-RACM memberships formally closed. Future dates TBD in 2027 or 2028 will extend coverage to registrants and existing members for eligible trades in central and northern BC and Vancouver Island.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Dramatically increasing the magnitude of training - from 68 to 143 hrs But here's the thing: you don't need any of this to legally install residential heat pumps in BC! So it's voluntary, but necessary to use an HPCN member if you want a rebate

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

New session: Upcoming training requirements for residential HVAC Tanya Ratzlaff talking about the Home Performance Contractor Network Upskilling initiative for contractors and energy advisors. registeredbccontractor.ca

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Who is going to install all this stuff? That's the subject of the next panel. Workforce development to facilitate heat pump installation

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

If everyone follows their road map, emissions drop dramatically. Totally solvable.

Line chart titled "GHG Reductions: Total GHG Emissions (Res + Com)" projecting emissions in Mt CO₂e from 2020 to 2050 across four policy scenarios. Data produced using the Building Decarbonization Alliance's Demand-Side Pathways Tool.
S1 Baseline (grey) remains flat at approximately 8.5 Mt throughout. S2 HE (blue) and S3 HE+DR (dark red) decline modestly. S4 HE+SC+DR (red) shows the steepest reduction, falling from roughly 8.5 Mt in 2020 to approximately 2.5 Mt by 2050.
Key assumptions include: HEES residential HVAC requirements phased in by climate zone between 2030–2035; ZCSC energy efficiency standards escalating through 2035; commercial HVAC replacement mandates of 70–98% heat pump by 2030–2035; and 90% all-electric HVAC and domestic hot water replacements in existing apartments starting 2035.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

ACTION ITEM: Speaker requests you write your MLA to require Zero Carbon Step Code Emissions Level 3 in new construction

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

When policymakers do things to disincentivize electrification, they are really trying to hold back a flood. Just embrace it. Stop fighting it. It's happening.

Like shows natural gas going down, heat pumps going up

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Fascinating. With presence of carbon tax and rebates, imports of HVAC tech to BC shifted to heat pumps, away from gas And virtually everyone who gets one, loves it Imo this really shows how distorted the official conversation is on this subject, where you'd think everyone hates them

Line chart titled "BC Equipment Imports – 2010–2023" for existing ground-oriented residential buildings, showing percentage of imports for four heating equipment types. Data source: Province of British Columbia.
Gas furnaces (red) dominated throughout, declining from approximately 65% in 2010 to 40% by 2023. Heat pumps (yellow) rose steadily from roughly 33% to 51%, crossing above gas furnaces around 2022. Electric furnaces and oil furnaces (purple and blue) remain near zero across the entire period.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Many apartment buildings are electrically heated (baseboards). Perfect use case for heat pump retrofit. Doesn't displace gas there, but DOES improve energy efficiency and comfort (Plus, DO displace the ones that are gas)

Grouped bar chart titled "Existing Apartment-Style Buildings: Primary Heating Source," showing market share of four heating sources across six survey years (2010–2023). Data source: BC Hydro.
Electricity (blue) dominates throughout, declining gradually from approximately 67% in 2010 to 53% in 2023. Natural gas (orange) is the second largest share, fluctuating between roughly 15–31% over the period. District energy (teal) remains near zero through 2017 then rises slightly to approximately 3% by 2023. Other (pink) remains negligible throughout.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Yikes, BC way behind relative to other heat pump early adopters

Horizontal bar chart titled "Heat Pumps in Cold Climates: Stock of heat pumps per 1,000 households." Seven cold-climate jurisdictions compared: Norway leads at 632, followed by Finland (524), Sweden (496), Estonia (351), Denmark (217), and France (204). British Columbia, highlighted in pink, ranks last at 120. Data source: European Heat Pump Association; BC Hydro.

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Berkhout: Can the grid support electrifying everything? Yes! Just need EV management system, batteries, etc. Electrification "is not like turning on an LNG plant" - it's slow and gradual (vs LNG which immediately sucks up all the power)

Projected electricity demand capacity in 2040 across four scenarios, displayed as a stacked bar chart. Data source: Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors, Clean Energy Canada.
Reference Load and Accelerated Electrification without Demand Response show solid blue bars at approximately 15,800 MW and 16,500 MW respectively, representing grid-supplied capacity only. The two Accelerated Electrification with Demand Response scenarios show how demand response resources — including residential storage, electric vehicle management, water heating, space heating, commercial and industrial storage, curtailment, and other measures — can reduce or offset grid capacity requirements. The Achievable Potential scenario reaches approximately 16,000 MW total but with a meaningful portion met by demand response rather than grid supply. The Effective Potential scenario shows total demand reduced to approximately 15,500 MW, with the yellow Effective Potential segment indicating the upper bound of demand response contribution

Brett Favaro@brettfavaro· May 20

Policymakers in EU have settled on heat pumps as a key plank in their emissions reduction strategy. They aren't going back, even if some member states are resistant