Numbers employed fell in the quarter to July. Manufacturers expect another fall in employment in the three months to October.

The main constraint on investment was uncertainty about demand, followed by inadequate net return, and a shortage of internal finance (cited by the greatest proportion of respondents in six years).

Investment intentions for the year ahead remain weak. Manufacturers expect to reduce investment in buildings, plant & machinery, product & process innovation, and training & retraining over the next 12 months.

Average costs rose in the quarterly to July, at a rapid pace. This was accompanied by a rise in both average domestic and export selling prices. Costs growth is expected to slow in the three months to October, but remain elevated.

The share of firms citing materials or components as a factor likely to limit output over the next three years fell from a three-year high in April, but remains above historical norms.

Stocks of raw materials were unchanged in the three months to July, whereas stocks of finished goods and of work in progress both declined.

Total new orders fell through the quarter at the fastest pace in six years, reflecting declines in both domestic and export orders. Manufacturers expect the total volume of new orders to decline in the three months to October, at a brisk pace.

Business sentiment deteriorated in July, with manufacturers optimism about both the business situation and export prospects declining.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to July, at a slower pace relative to the quarter to June. Firms expect output to fall again in the three months to October.

Transport made the largest downward contribution to June’s slower inflation. This was driven by falling fuel pump prices following the signing of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

UK CPI inflation eased slightly to 2.6% in June (from 2.8% in May), marginally undershooting consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) held steady at 2.6%.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

Growth was driven primarily by increased services output, accompanied by increased activity in construction and production.

UK GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to May, following an upwardly revised 0.8% in the three months to April. This leaves GDP 1.3% higher than in May 2025. GDP grew 0.1% in the month of May, beating consensus estimates of no growth.

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

FS firms plan to raise investment in IT over the next 12 months (vs previous 12), to the greatest extent since September 2021. Capex is expected to be cut back on vehicles, plant & machinery, and be broadly flat in land & buildings.

Headcount in FS rose over the three months to June for the first time in two years. Firms expect headcount to grow at a steady pace in the next three months.

Sentiment among FS firms dropped in the three months to June at a fast rate.

Business volumes in the financial services sector dropped at a rapid pace in Q2, following a temporary recovery in Q1, according to the latest CBI Financial Services Survey. Firms expect volumes to decline at a relatively slower pace over the next quarter.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

💸 Selling price pressures have eased a little Selling price expectations for the next three months have eased to their lowest since November 2025

📊The outlook remains weak across sub-sectors • Business & professional services: -26% • Consumer services: -5% • Distribution: -44% • Manufacturing: -31% [Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase in output/activity, minus those expecting a decrease]

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE AUTUMN, EXTENDING A RUN OF NEGATIVE PREDICTIONS THAT BEGAN IN LATE 2024 Firms anticipate declines in activity once again through to September

Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) declined in the year to June at a similarly firm pace to last month. Sales are set to contract at a faster rate next month.

Wholesale sales volumes fell at a slower rate in the year to June, but the downturn is set to accelerate next month.

Online retail sales volumes were flat in the year to June. Retailers expect internet sales to grow at a strong pace in July.

Retailers reported that sales volumes fell at a sharper rate over the year to June. Sales are expected to decline at a slower – albeit still rapid – pace next month.

Retail sales volumes were judged to be below seasonal norms in June, to the greatest extent in over two years, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. July’s sales are expected to continue to disappoint for the time of year.

Stocks of finished goods were reported as adequate in June, and the balance stood broadly in line with the long-run average.