MLC
@chicyph80
Sports loving (Go Blue!), Vodka consuming, trying to survive the next 4 years. Lover of Chicago, Democracy, and my fellow LGBTQ brothers & sisters
Well, this is a spicy one! St Pete Polls finds Kathy Castor up by 8 & 9 points against her two potential GOP opponents in the new FL-14 👀 With DeSantis' new gerrymander, this seat is now Trump +10.4, so this would be a MASSIVE swing left, wow! @ericmgarcia.bsky.social @purrtah.bsky.social
Whew this is a doozy from a pollster who is typically pretty kind to the GOP. Could be why Ruffini was so concerned about the midterms in that article from the NYT yesterday….
I'm certainly no Harris apologist but man, I gotta tell you, this specific Bluesky thing about being so obsessed with Kamala accepting Liz Cheney's endorsement & doing ONE campaign event with her is....literally brain worms. Quickest way to signal to me that you're a moron and completely unserious.
Gonna echo this until I’m blue in the face, D+10 and above is that magic number where things start breaking and you start getting ‘Obama wins Indiana in 2008’ weird results. Gonna be a fun ride!
Had the honor of visiting the new Obama Center today here in Chicago. It was honestly stunning! I was drawn to a particular quote on the wall from the former President: “America can change. What we’ve already achieved gives us hope for what we can & must achieve tomorrow” 🫶✊
So, I'm of a few minds: - I already felt like Troy Jackson was the best replacement candidate. He knows the state well, oppo will already be well known & he has name recognition. - I'll give Platner's team credit for releasing a poll showing they're in the toilet Let's do this!
Well now THIS is interesting! Obviously an internal, so a grain of salt but let's talk about this new AL-02 district the Republicans gerrymandered: - Trump won it by 14 points in 2024 - Doug Jones lost it by 4 points in his re-election campaign in 2020 but he did win it in the 2017 special 👀
I know absolutely nothing about him but are there any mechanics to get Troy Jackson on the ballot?
Really great catch by @clearlyashley.bsky.social here around the Generic Ballot. Specifically, I REALLY wish they would have asked Brown and Acton's numbers here. The topline numbers are pretty decent, but man those Trump approval & generic ballot numbers to me are the key here.
Look, it is perfectly reasonable to prefer Abdul to Stevens. But to say that either of them will lose Detroit, is deeply unserious. You don't have to make shit up simply because you prefer another candidate lol
….this is particularly true of the group that is attacking Chris. You don’t gain allies and supporters by being an asshole to good people.
Funny thing is, if Nate doesn't use his funky skewing, IA and ME almost perfectly match from both outlets....
Very interesting new poll in NC-01! Keep in mind, based on the new gerrymandered map in NC, Trump won this district by 11.6 points in 2024. Don Davis being up by 4 would be a tremendous result here!
Look, I am all for making changes to polling methodologies. And I GREATLY appreciate how transparent Nate Cohn is about it all. ....with that said, if your methodology change leads to a poll moving 6 POINTS (!!), what are we even doing here?! lol
One interesting thing for sure @trumpstaxes.com is NYT also found the House generic ballot in NC is Dem +5. If that is even REMOTELY true, the GOP in North Carolina is in very, very big trouble....
Ummm holy SHITTT!!!! lol Diving into these polls a bit more this morning and NYT has the Generic Ballot in North Carolina at Dem +5 (!!) lol If that is even REMOTELY accurately, the GOP is BEYYOOONNNDD fucked there! @ericmgarcia.bsky.social
Missed this but appears that we also got a poll of Maine GOV and that's looking pretty safe to stay with the Dems. Good to see!
🚨🚨🚨 Yea.....going on a limb & saying, down 4 in an R-sponsored poll is REALLLLY not where the GOP in freakin' Iowa wants to be! I think the IA Gov poll is starting to get towards Lean D. And without a doubt, IA Senate is a toss-up. Point-blank, period!
Two really, REALLLLYYY interesting House polls to start this Friday.....👀 Recall, Trump won NY-21 by 21 points in 2024 and PA-8 by 8.5 points. Two really strong polls for Dems in two critical states to take back the House in 4 months!