Saturday evening update on Invest 91L. Likely not to see significant development, but a couple of scenarios are possible and we could see a tropical storm develop over the next few days: dswx.substack.com/p/gulf-tropi...

3/3 Even so it is reasonable that it may become a tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday as it drifts north-northwest, likely turning west later in that period. Chance of development is now up to 40%.

2/3 You’ll also notice that there is very little convection. There is quite a bit of dry air to the west and north so it may continue to struggle.

1/3 The area in the Gulf has been designated Invest 91L and the hurricane model suite has started to run, giving us better information soon. Satellite shows an elongated SW-NE mid-level circulation, but there is a weak surface circulation as well.

2/2

1/2 Looks like a mid-level low pressure formed today in the eastern Gulf. Currently it's decoupled from the convection to the north, we'll see if it's able to consolidate better over the next few days. Chances of development are currently at 30%.

Looking a bit more inland, an unsettled patten from a stalling front will bring a low damaging wind/severe threat for Friday through Sunday for eastern Tennessee.

2/2 The overall environment isn’t the best and it will start to worsen next week so I think it’s unlike we’ll see significant development. All the same it’s not non-zero so we need to keep watching through the weekend.

1/2 NHC is holding steady at 20% for a tropical system near the Southeast. The “blob” off the Florida coast is likely the beginning of what will be a slow, struggling attempt at organization.

An unsettled pattern into next week will bring a risk of strong to severe storms the next few days. The tropics remain quiet: dswx.substack.com/p/unsettled-...

Typical summertime pattern persists with a few strong/severe storms possible today for most of MS, AL, & TN. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet: dswx.substack.com/p/scattered-...

There's another damaging wind threat away from the coast today and tomorrow afternoon and evening. Expect some scattered storms on the 4th, but I don't think too many people will see a washout: dswx.substack.com/p/two-more-r...

The severe risk this afternoon and evening has been upgraded to Slight for some areas. The damaging wind risk is now at 15% and a 5% hail risk area has also been added.

The SPC added a Marginal risk for today for most of MS, AL except the southeast third, and a large part of TN. Damaging winds are the only expected hazard. The severe risk for tomorrow (Thursday) is about the same as forecast yesterday.

A few strong/severe storms today and then again Thursday for different parts of the region. No concerns in the tropics for at least a few weeks: dswx.substack.com/p/summer-sto...

The NHC has been marking an area with a low chance of development off the Southeast coast for a few days. I mentioned this possibility at the end of my post on June 22nd. Anyhow, development chances are down to 10% from 20%, so it’s likely we won’t see anything happen.

There’s a Marginal chance of severe weather for much of TN and extreme northeast AL this afternoon and evening. The primary threat is damaging winds, but there is an isolated tornado threat as well for parts of central and western TN.

There’s a Marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening across parts of the Deep South, damaging winds are the main risk.

A messy/stormy day with severe storms possible across the central and northern part of the region today, with the coast finally getting a break (mostly). Also, a look at the tropics around the end of the month: dswx.substack.com/p/severe-sto...

1/2 PTC One has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur. It is heavily sheared…The low level center is well over land still. I’m not even sure I can find a midlevel center, maybe under the convection offshore to the east.

The National Hurricane Center has begun advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. It is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. The earlier information I shared remains the same.

A few brief tornadoes are possible in the highlighted area from late morning into the afternoon.

Severe weather in the forecast again with strong storms possible in northern AL and eastern TN. No change in the tropics, still a low chance for development in the Gulf later this week.

Another round or two of strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and then overnight, this time in western/central TN and northern MS & AL . Damaging winds is the main threat.

A few strong storms are possible today in central/eastern TN and northern AL; also, watching the Gulf for the low possibility of a weak storm developing: dswx.substack.com/p/severe-sto...

A frontal passage has dropped temps and lowered the humidity across the Deep South, the rain chance returns late Friday into Saturday. Looking at the tropics, a “blob” in the Gulf looks threatening, but high wind shear should keep a lid on tropical development.

It’s the first day of hurricane season in the North Atlantic. All looks quiet for the next 2-3 weeks: dswx.substack.com/p/atlantic-h...

Some strong storms are possible across the Deep South today and tomorrow as the unsettled pattern continues, with damaging winds and maybe some hail the main threats.

1/2 Rotation in a storm just east of Niceville, FL has prompted a tornado warning. It looks like the rotation is subsiding as it is coming ashore along the bay, but if you're in the area, take shelter!

2/2 A few strong storms will be possible on and off.