Chris Giles
@chrisgiles
Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab Sign up to my central banks newsletter here
But it was also an extremely irritating form of rhetoric, talking process not substance. This is insulting to an audience
We know financial markets did not like it. They raised US borrowing costs a lot more than Canadian ones as Warsh spoke
The Fed goes WACKO: Warsh's Awful Communication: Knowingly Opaque Coming across as obtuse is a dangerous for unelected economic institutions My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/cbc7...
The ambitions of UK governments is decreasing. Instead of "kickstarting" growth... the new government is only claiming to have "begun to kickstart" growth.
Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius
Energy prices appear to be in a wide bounded equilibrium, but it is unstable... My newsletter www.ft.com/content/c1b2...
should avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2...
There isn't a clear answer yet - probably Japan has more sense. And for the BoJ, there is now lots of evidence Japan is becoming a normal advanced economy. Wages and prices now rising steadily for example
Will Japan's potential massive fiscal stimulus create a Honebuto-Shokku? (which is roughly translated into English as a Liz Truss moment) My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/da40...
One idea for money saving. Don’t send a crappy 25 notepad with the survey letter
If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35...
My central banks newsletter this week looks at the Supreme Court's rather thinner victory for Lisa Cook against Donald Trump than expected. Footnote 8 in the ruling is importantl she might well lose round 2. www.ft.com/content/c642...
One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office.... ... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival? www.ft.com/content/161a...
If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle... But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows. My newsletter www.ft.com/content/2356...
And the ECB thinks it is at neutral, while the Fed and BoE think rates are restrictive So - the only way is up for the ECB
This shock is more global than Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that imparts more of an inflationary impulse
Eurozone energy prices are higher than the March baseline, but not screaming "raise rates" But....that is not all My newsletter www.ft.com/content/19f0...
Q4 2026 over Q4 2025 UK growth forecast downgrade is smaller than Japan and Italy's - and the Eurozone for that matter IMF largely to blame for not highlighting economic activity that is forecast to take place in 2006 rather than that which has already happened
This headline is not true (even though the IMF itself seems to believe it) The UK's annual average growth forecast downgrade for 2026 is larger than others. But this is due to what happened in 2025, not what might happen in 2026 due to Iran war...
The Iran war is difficult for advanced economies, but much harder for small Islands and sub-Saharan African countries that are net oil importers My newsletter www.ft.com/content/32fa...
But refined fuels (unlike food) are rising appropriately in price to stem demand...refinery margins are exploding For more analysis www.ft.com/content/b5f9...
Crude prices have risen 60% or so. Forwards will have to rise further to choke off sufficient demand unless the Strait is opened soon
Even after mitigations, the Iran war reduces global liquid fuel supplies by at least 10% (That's half the size of the worst lockdown months of Covid) And prices of crude oil do not reflect this yet My newsletter as.ft.com/r/a3833ead-4...
Also in newsletter Remember how the Houthi rebels halved traffic through the Suez Canal in late 2023 it has not come back
Oil prices and futures are currently similar to the ECB's adverse scenario - My newsletter explains how this fits into its three-pronged war strategy www.ft.com/content/5a15...
We still don't know how the War on Iran will work out. Central banks cannot just throw up their hands and curse their fate... they are players here My newsletter www.ft.com/content/950f...
What we know so far about the economic effects of the Gulf conflict (not much). And the markets are volatile My newsletter www.ft.com/content/a2c3...
This is just the most incredible chart... if the UK government implements current policies on taxes and benefits, public debt is stable (contrary to what the OBR always mistakenly tells us) My column as.ft.com/r/e69f1407-e...