Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin
Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.
2027, on the other hand, is going to blow apart the record for the warmest year. 🤷
But what if Nino34 > 2, or > 3? That hasn't happened sufficiently (if at all) and so this method fails. (You can think of new ways to do this of course). You can see why perhaps in this 'horserace' graphic.
The first method has worked pretty well (except for 2023), while the second method also works well (though with higher uncertainty early in the year). Now that Jul data is in, the YTD method should be converging on the real number, but...
In the US, July 4th is regularly the day with the worst air quality, but this is next level bad. Please take care if you are near this (masks, HEPA filters, etc.).
Second go. Actually using the WMGHG concentrations this time (though just direct effects).
I’ve been waiting for trains at New Carrollton for 30 years - finally there is a bar!
Both the Nenana Ice Classic and the Yukon River at Dawson City are done for the year - May 4th and 5th respectively - a little later than trend would suggest (in line with very cold + snowy winter), but long term trends are still clear.
Some folks are (purportedly) continually surprised that pretty much anywhere that people live is warming faster than the global mean. It's not that tricky, since we mostly don't live in the ocean.
"We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time." from Little Gidding by T.S.Eliot #EarthDay
Apropos of nothing here’s a picture of global cooling (it’s that tiny little dip at the end).
But in actuality, both CO2 and CH4 emissions in NZ are falling (slightly). no evidence for a compensation effect.
the earliest two data points are nominally 2.7 and 2.9Ma, and the mid-Pliocene warm period is 3.3-3.0Ma, so these aren't directly comparable. There's a fair bit of wiggle room too - uncertainties on the new data are large (both in age and magnitude) (see fig 3).
Is there an acceleration in global warming expected in the CMIP6 climate models? yes! But not as easy to detect in the real world. (from www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...) (see also: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar... from 2024).
For reference here is a graph of the old and new time series (annual means):