Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧

@climathosphere

Gay atheist 🇱🇧 man 🏳️‍🌈 #FreeLink Climatologue. Physique Mathématique. Astronomie. Swoletariat. Socialiste. Antifasciste. 🟥⬛🟩💪🏽🎽🏋🏿🥊🥋 Free Palestine 🇵🇸 Haiti 🇭🇹 Congo 🇨🇬🇨🇩 Sudan 🇸🇩 Cuba 🇨🇺 Lebanon 🇱🇧 and Rojova 🟥🟨🟩 from genocide. Lang: 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇵🇸🇱🇧🇬🇷

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Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· 13d

People in the comments are making the mistake of reading these percentages as a uniform distribution. Here is the breakdown by federal vote intention. It is a distribution that one would expect.

Avi Lewis favourability by federal vote intentions.

Favourability | VF | Favourable | Not Sure | Unfavourable | VU
All Respondents | 5% | 12 % | 45 % | 15% | 23%
CPC | 1% | 3% | 27 % | 21 % | 49%
Liberal | 2% | 16% | 57% | 14 % | 11 %
NDP | 30% | 36 % | 29 % | 4% | 0%
BQ | 1% | 7% | 53% | 20% | 19%

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jul 8

I also want to add another remark! As the user in the photo (that I just quoted) is pointing out, this is a common form of circular reasoning that Zionists love using for justifying the genocide they are committing against us! rationalwiki.org/wiki/Circula...

Circular reasoning, a fallacy that Zionists use a lot when interpreting the Torah and the Tanakh to justify their genocides.

It goes like this:
0) Zionists: "This land is promised to us X-amount of years ago"
1) Zionists: "Because Tanakh/Torah/Bible tells us so!"
1.5) Rationalists: "Why believe the The Tanakh/Torah/Bible?"
2) Zionists: "The The Tanakh/Torah/Bible is infalliable!"
2.5) Rationalists: "How do you know that it is infalliable?"
3) Zionists: "The Tanakh/Torah/Bible is the word of God!"
3.5) Rationalists: "How can you be so sure that it is the word of God?"
--- Repeat cycle ad infinitum from step 1 ---

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jun 30

Lots of people are being quick to judge NDP support on this. Here is the full table of the actual poll. Most of it comes from a moderate disagreement, and the entire other 75% is still in support. The estimated margin of error is ± 5.39% for the NDP column using the weighted sample.

National Pride as a Canadian – By Voting Intentions
CPOST1. To what extent are you proud to be a Canadian?
Base: All respondents (n=1,528)

Total
CANADA LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC
Weighted n= 1,528 606 424 78 76 54
Unweighted n= 1,528 691 340 89 93 50
TOTAL PROUD 84% 96% 76% 75% 64% 91%
Very proud 51% 70% 40% 36% 20% 44%
Somewhat proud 33% 26% 37% 38% 45% 47%
TOTAL NOT PROUD 13% 4% 21% 25% 25% 7%
Not very proud 8% 2% 14% 21% 15% 2%
Not proud at all 5% 1% 8% 4% 10% 5%
I am not a Canadian citizen 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 2% 0% 2% 0% 10% 1%

Source: Léger, https://leger360.com/in-the-news-canada-day-2026/

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jun 27

Current @canadianpolling.bsky.social plots of polling averages using both my Core and LV aggregation modes.

Core Aggregation

Polling Canada average using my Core aggregation, which consists of the top 3 most accurate polling firms of the 2025 Canadian Federal Election (Mainstreet, Liaison Strategies, Angus Reid).

PLC/LPC - 42.5%
PCC/CPC - 33.4%
NPD/NDP - 13.0%
BQ - 6.0%
PVC/GPC - 2.7%
PPC - 1.8%

LV Aggregation

Polling Canada average using my LV (Low Variance) aggregation, which consists of the Core aggregation plus one accurate polling firm that polls the NDP consistently well (Nanos, A) and one accurate polling firm that polls the NDP consistently poor (Léger, A+).

Therefore, LV = average(Core, Nanos, Léger)

PLC/LPC - 44.1%
PCC/CPC - 33.1%
NPD/NDP - 10.8%
BQ - 6.1%
PVC/GPC - 3.5%
PPC - 1.9%

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jun 2

Yes, every Cuba hater is pathetic because even all the Eastern European countries from the former Warsaw Pact are against you on this! Cuba supports our beautiful and magificent people in Palestine 🇵🇸 Congo 🇨🇩 and Sudan 🇸🇩 and Cuba has the most left-wing and progressive LGBTQ+ policies in the universe!

All Warsaw Pact countries voted in favour of a UN Assembly vote to end the genocidal embargo against Cuba.

The total vote tally of the UN Assembly:
In Favour: 189
Abstain: 2 (Ukraine, Moldova)
Against: 2 (United States, Israel; both perpetrators of genocide)

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Apr 22

#EarthDay #JournéeDeLaTerre #يومالأرض🌍🌏🌎 showyourstripes.info

Global change in mean surface temperature from 1850 to 2025.
Mean global surface temperature change is an increase of of around 1.2 ℃ with respect to the last millennium.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 30

Pour ceux qui désirent une diapositive qui donne une représentation graphique à cercle proportionnel en aire les résultats de la course de la Chefferie NPD 2026.

Résultats du Vote Officiel (%)
Avi Lewis - 56%
Tony McQuail - 1%
Tanille Johnson - 7%
Heather McPherson - 30%
Rob Ashton - 6%

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 30

For those that desire a pie chart that displays the results of the 2026 NDP Leadership Race proportionally by area.

Results of Official Vote (%)
Avi Lewis - 56%
Tony McQuail - 1%
Tanille Johnson - 7%
Heather McPherson - 30%
Rob Ashton - 6%

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 29

Avi Lewis a gagné la course de Chefferie NPD 2026 avec le premier tour. Félicitations @avilewis.ca! Je suis heureux d'avoir la chance de lui rencontrer et de lui rejoindre durant la course!

Résultats du Vote Officiel
Chefferie NPD 2026
@climathosphere
Le 29 mars 2026

Avi Lewis - 56 %
Heather McPherson - 30 %
Tanille Johnson - 7 %
Rob Ashton - 6 %
Tony McQuail - 1 %

Candidat(e) Vote Pourcentage %
Avi Lewis 39734 56,0 %
Heather McPherson 20899 29,5 %
Tanille Johnson 5159 7,3 %
Rob Ashton 4193 5,9 %
Tony McQuail 945 1,3 %

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 29

Avi Lewis wins the 2026 NDP Leadership Race on the first round. Congratulations @avilewis.ca! I was fortunate enough to meet him in person during the leadership race!

Results of Official Vote
2026 NDP Leadership Race
@climathosphere
March 29, 2026

Candidate Vote Percentage %
Avi Lewis 39734 56.0 %
Heather McPherson 20899 29.5 %
Tanille Johnson 5159 7.3 %
Rob Ashton 4193 5.9 %
Tony McQuail 945 1.3 %

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 29

Diapositives des réprésentations graphqiues des résultats des sondages publiques enquêtés par les utilisateurs/utilisatrices Reddit dans r/ndp pour la course de Chefferie NPD 2026.

Sondages enquêtés par des Utilisateurs (et Utilisatrices) Reddit de r/ndp
@climathosphere
Chefferie NPD 2026
2026-03-28

Date Enquêteur/Enquêtrice Échantillon Erreur (%) Avi Lewis Heather McPherson Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Tony McQuail Autre/Other Yves Engler
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 32,9 17,42 3,23 34,19 2,58 0,65 9,03
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 21,89 12,12 3,03 37,04 1,35 24,57912
2025-10-13 u/DryEmu5113 219 1,539 36,99 8,22 1,83 40,64 3,2 9,13
2025-10-16 u/TraditionalSocialist8 100 1,5446 43,9 6,1 4,1 34,7 2,0 9,2
2025-10-31 u/DryEmu5113 215 1,539 33,49 8,37 4,19 23,26 3,72 26,98
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 44,8 13,9 7,8 27,8 5,7
2025-11-23 u/afpb_ 142 1,5426 40,8 12 5,6 31,7 7,7 2,1
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 51,79 14,29 4,17 22,02 7,74
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 33,08 15,04 12,03 30,08 9,77
2026-01-11 u/afpb_ 80 1,5456 45 11,2 6,3 26,2 11,3
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 43,09 14,16 10,38 23,34 9,03
2026-01-23 u/canadiancitizeninfo 252 1,5372 63,1 13,5 6,3 8,7 8,3
2026-01-28 u/sami_coolfun 256 1,537 60,9 13,7 8,2 5,9 11,3
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 49,2 13,6 25,4 5,1 6,8
2026-03-11 u/Bunny-Is-Cute 260 1,537 61,2 13,1 13,5 6,2 6,2

Date Enquêteur/Enquêtrice Échantillon Erreur (%) Avi Lewis Heather McPherson Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Tony McQuail Yves Engler
2025-09-25 u/DryEmu5113 182 1,5406 60,44 39,56
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 40,1 59,9
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 44,5 55,5
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 52,2 14,8 33,1
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 51,79 14,29 4,17 22,02 7,74
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 45,38 54,62
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 60 40
2026-01-23 u/canadiancitizeninfo 252 1,5372 63,1 13,5 6,3 8,7 8,3
2026-01-28 u/sami_coolfun 256 1,537 60,9 13,7 8,2 5,9 11,3
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 50,8 13,6 27,1 8,5
2026-03-11 u/Bunny-Is-Cute 260 1,537 61,2 13,1 13,5 6,2 6,2

Date Enquêteur/Enquêtrice Échantillon Erreur (%) Avi Lewis Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Yves Engler
2025-09-25 u/DryEmu5113 182 1,5406 60,44 39,56
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 39,35 58,71
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 41,45 51,64
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 55,5 44,5
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 61,9 38,1
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 45,38 54,62
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 60 40
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 59,3 40,7

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 29

Plots of all the results of the user-conducted polls and surveys on Reddit in r/ndp for the 2026 NDP Leadership race.

Reddit r/ndp User-conducted Polls
2026 NDP Leadership Race
@climathosphere
2026-03-28

Date Author Sample Size Error (%) Avi Lewis Heather McPherson Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Tony McQuail Other Yves Engler
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 32,9 17,42 3,23 34,19 2,58 0,65 9,03
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 21,89 12,12 3,03 37,04 1,35 24,57912
2025-10-13 u/DryEmu5113 219 1,539 36,99 8,22 1,83 40,64 3,2 9,13
2025-10-16 u/TraditionalSocialist8 100 1,5446 43,9 6,1 4,1 34,7 2,0 9,2
2025-10-31 u/DryEmu5113 215 1,539 33,49 8,37 4,19 23,26 3,72 26,98
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 44,8 13,9 7,8 27,8 5,7
2025-11-23 u/afpb_ 142 1,5426 40,8 12 5,6 31,7 7,7 2,1
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 51,79 14,29 4,17 22,02 7,74
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 33,08 15,04 12,03 30,08 9,77
2026-01-11 u/afpb_ 80 1,5456 45 11,2 6,3 26,2 11,3
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 43,09 14,16 10,38 23,34 9,03
2026-01-23 u/canadiancitizeninfo 252 1,5372 63,1 13,5 6,3 8,7 8,3
2026-01-28 u/sami_coolfun 256 1,537 60,9 13,7 8,2 5,9 11,3
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 49,2 13,6 25,4 5,1 6,8
2026-03-11 u/Bunny-Is-Cute 260 1,537 61,2 13,1 13,5 6,2 6,2

Date Author Sample Size Error (%) Avi Lewis Heather McPherson Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Tony McQuail Yves Engler
2025-09-25 u/DryEmu5113 182 1,5406 60,44 39,56
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 40,1 59,9
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 44,5 55,5
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 52,2 14,8 33,1
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 51,79 14,29 4,17 22,02 7,74
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 45,38 54,62
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 60 40
2026-01-23 u/canadiancitizeninfo 252 1,5372 63,1 13,5 6,3 8,7 8,3
2026-01-28 u/sami_coolfun 256 1,537 60,9 13,7 8,2 5,9 11,3
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 50,8 13,6 27,1 8,5
2026-03-11 u/Bunny-Is-Cute 260 1,537 61,2 13,1 13,5 6,2 6,2

Date Author Sample Size Error (%) Avi Lewis Tanille Johnson Rob Ashton Yves Engler
2025-09-25 u/DryEmu5113 182 1,5406 60,44 39,56
2025-10-03 u/NorthernDagger 155 1,542 40,1 59,9
2025-10-06 u/Albatross_Silly 297 1,535 41,45 51,64
2025-11-14 u/NorthernDagger 290 1,5354 55,5 44,5
2025-12-11 u/rotang2 168 1,5413 61,9 38,1
2025-12-24 u/NorthernDagger 133 1,543 45,38 54,62
2026-01-15 u/NorthernDagger 170 1,5412 60 40
2026-03-02 u/climathosphere 59 1,545 59,3 40,7

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

Niveau du Français

Les répondants français ont eu une question exclusive qui évalue le niveau du Français de toutes les candidatures du Chefferie NPD 2026.
Les répondants ont évalué le niveau du français des candidatures avec une échelle de nombres entiers d’une magnitude à 3 selon l’échelle disponible en bas où un −3 signifie très faible et un +3 signifie très fort.
Le graphique sur la prochaine diapositive montra la valeur moyenne des réponses de tous les répondants français.

-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3

Niveau Moyen du Français

Nom Niveau Moyen
Avi Lewis 1
Tony McQuail -3
Tanille Johnson -2.8
Heather McPherson -0.4
Rob Ashton -2.6

Sujets Actuels Choisis Par l’Enquêteur

Sujets:
1. Palestine, Soudan, Congo et les génocides contre les populations de ces pays.
2. Changement climatique anthropogène et comment nous pourrons éduquer et bâtir un pays qui l'adressera comme un dirigeant mondial.
3. Économie qui répond aux Canadiens selon leurs moyens et selon leurs besoins.

Nom Sujet 1 Sujet 2 Sujet 3
Avi Lewis 58% 58% 59%
Tony McQuail 8% 17% 3%
Tanille Johnson 7% 12% 8%
Heather McPherson 24% 12% 14%
Rob Ashton 3% 2% 15%

Taille d’Échantillons Par Région

Province MB CB QC SK AB ON NB NÉ Totale
Nombre de réponses reçus 2 18 8 6 11 40 1 4 90
Nombre de réponses valides 1 14 6 5 6 24 1 2 59

Les réponses valides consistent des réponses qui ont rempli les questions de la mathématique (un captcha qui sert à filtrer les réponses avec une IA générative) et de l’entrée de la conscription fédérale correctement.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

Comment Lisez Les Figures Anneaux

Tour 1 → Anneau 1
Tour 2 → Anneau 2
Tour 3 → Anneau 3
Tour 4 → Anneau 4

Canda, Vote National

Nom Tour 1 Tour 2 Tour 3 Tour 4
Avi Lewis 49% 51% 56% 59%
Tony McQuail 7% 8% - -
Tanille Johnson 25% 27% 30% 41%
Heather McPherson 14% 14% 14% -
Rob Ashton 5% - - -

Ontario, Vote Provincial Régional

Nom Tour 1 Tour 2 Tour 3
Avi Lewis 50% 54% 58%
Tony McQuail 8% - -
Tanille Johnson 21% 33% 42%
Heather McPherson 13% 13% -
Rob Ashton 8% - -

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

J'ai fait un enquête et sondage publique pour la course de Chefferie NPD 2026 sur Reddit. Voici les diapositives PowerPoint Français des résultats complets.

Sondage du Chefferie NPD 2026

Dates Du Sondage
Le février 26 2026 – Le 2 mars 2026

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

French respondents of this survey were asked an exclusive question to access the French language proficiency of all candidates in the 2026 NDP Leadership Race.
Respondents rated the French language proficiency of the candidates on an integer scale of -3 to +3 shown below where a value of −3 means very low and a value of +3 means very high.
The graph on the next slide gives the average value of all responses for each candidate who responded in French.

-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3

Average Level of French Proficiency

Candidate Average Level Proficiency (from -3 to +3)
Avi Lewis 1
Tony McQuail -3
Tanille Johnson -2.8
Heather McPherson -0.4
Rob Ashton -2.6

Current Topics Selected By Poll Author

Topics:
1. Palestine, Sudan, Congo, and the genocides against their populations.
2. Climate change and how we can educate and build a country that will become a global leader in addressing it.
3. Create an economy that values Canadians according to their abilities and their needs.

Candidate Topic 1 Topic 2 Topic 3
Avi Lewis 58% 58% 59%
Tony McQuail 8% 17% 3%
Tanille Johnson 7% 12% 8%
Heather McPherson 24% 12% 14%
Rob Ashton 3% 2% 15%

Regional Sample Sizes

Province MB BC QC SK AB ON NB NS Total
Number of received responses 2 18 8 6 11 40 1 4 90
Nombre of valid responses 1 14 6 5 6 24 1 2 59

Valid responses are those that have completed the mathematical question (a captcha used to filter any responses done with a generative AI) and filled the federal riding entry line correctly.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

How to Read the Ring Plots

Round 1 → Ring 1
Round 2 → Ring 2
Round 3 → Ring 3
Round 4 → Ring 4

Canada, Nationwide Vote

Candidate Ring 1 Ring 2 Ring 3 Ring 4
Avi Lewis 49% 51% 56% 59%
Tony McQuail 7% 8% - -
Tanille Johnson 25% 27% 30% 41%
Heather McPherson 14% 14% 14% -
Rob Ashton 5% - - -

Ontario, Provincial Regional Vote

Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Avi Lewis 50% 54% 58%
Tony McQuail 8% - -
Tanille Johnson 21% 33% 42%
Heather McPherson 13% 13% -
Rob Ashton 8% - -

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Mar 6

I did an Opinion Poll on Reddit for the 2026 NDP Leadership Race. Here are my English PowerPoint slides of the results.

2026 NDP Leadership Race Opinion Poll

Polling Dates
February 26, 2026 – March 2, 2026

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jul 13

Here is a screenshot of another example of a zionist transphobe in his echo chamber mansplaining to us MENA queers about being queer in the zionist regime.

Jay Robertson (@ijeftomi.bsky.social) Wrote on Bsky on June 22 at 9:51 PM:
"""
They want to exterminate the only country in the Middle East where it is safe to be any of those letters.

I don't want to make common cause with them on ANY issue. The price tag is WAY too high.
"""

Jay Robertson (@ijeftomi.bsky.social) is being a total hypocrite mansplaining to us Middle-East North Africa (MENA) queers about how the Middle East works. Notice how Jay refers to us as "any of those letters" in his queerphobic post, as if we are just some alphabet soup for him to laugh at. He is correctly labeled with "Transmysogyny" and "Transphobia (General)" moderation labels. I guess they only qualification these zionists have is throwing stones in glass houses. They don't even have same-sex marriage legal! Abortion is also not legal there either.

MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE (TRIGGER WARNING, VIOLENT SEXUAL THREATS)
This does not get into own personal experience there. While I was in the Zionist regime in Al Quds (Jerusalem) to go and meet a Palestinian friend, I kept getting r*ape threats from zionists on Grindr after they figured out that I was Lebanese Arab. Ironically, when I fled to Lebanon through Jordan, I stopped receiving those violent r*ape threats after leaving the Zionist regime. I deleted my Grindr account afterwards, and I never go on dating apps anymore because of it. Those zionists were filthy, rude, violent, and discusting. They are dirty people! I am where I am now because I wanted to run away from all of that. I will never forgive them for committing genocides against the people of my race and pretending to like us queer people while doing it.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jul 12

Now that all the votes are counted in, here are my statistical calculation tables to decide the pollster accuracy ratings for the 2025 NYC Mayor Democratic Primary (June-dated ranked-choice polls only).

Final Round Result Table

Date Poll Mamdani Cuomo Net Mamdani Mamdani Offset Cuomo Offset Rating Notes
2025-06-24 Actual 56,21 43,79 12,42 0 0 POR POR implies published original result.
2025-06-22 YouGov 43 57 -14 -13,21 13,21 D
2025-06-22 HarrisX 28 52 -24 -28,21 8,21 F
2025-06-20 Emerson College 52 48 4 -4,21 4,21 A
2025-06-16 Center for Strategic Politics 48 52 -4 -8,21 8,21 C+
2025-06-16 Manhattan Institute 44 56 -12 -12,21 12,21 D
2025-06-12 Marist Univeristy 37 50 -13 -19,21 6,21 F Prediction of Second Last Round
2025-06-09 Honan Strategy Group 44 56 -12 -12,21 12,21 D
2025-06-07 Expedition Strategies 44 56 -12 -12,21 12,21 D
2025-06-04 Data for Progress 49 51 -2 -7,21 7,21 C+

First Round Result Table

Date Poll Mamdani Cuomo Net Mamdani Mamdani Offset Cuomo Offset Rating Notes
2025-06-24 Actual 43,62 36,27 7,35 0 0 POR POR implies published original result.
2025-06-22 YouGov 28 38 -10 -15,62 1,73 D
2025-06-22 HarrisX 19 38 -19 -24,62 1,73 F
2025-06-20 Emerson College 32 35 -3 -11,62 -1,27 C+
2025-06-16 Center for Strategic Politics 29 37 -8 -14,62 0,73 C-
2025-06-16 Manhattan Institute 27 39 -12 -16,62 2,73 D
2025-06-12 Marist Univeristy 27 38 -11 -16,62 1,73 D
2025-06-09 Honan Strategy Group 22 38 -16 -21,62 1,73 D-
2025-06-07 Expedition Strategies 30 42 -12 -13,62 5,73 D
2025-06-04 Data for Progress 31 37 -6 -12,62 0,73 C

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Apr 28

I did some average seat count simulations in Excel for each party in the 2025 Canadian Federal Election. 🧮 J'ai fait une agrégation dans Excel des sièges moyennes pour chaque parti politique dans l'Élection fédérale canadienne 2025. 🧮

Une photo d'un fichier Excel qui donne l'agrégation de la moyenne de sièges prévus pour chaque parti politique dans l'Élection fédérale canadienne de 2025 en utilisant les données fournis sur le site-web qc125.com

Il y a trois champs affichés. Le premier champ constitue de la modélisation des courbes linéaires selon les données du site-web qc125.com y indiquées. Le deuxième champ nommé Simulation Climathosphere (nommé d'après mon nom d'utilisateur) fourni pour chaque parti politique le vote populaire moyen (VPM), la moyenne de sièges (CMS) et la moyenne de sièges normalisée (CMSN) selon les courbes linéaires modélisées. Le troisième et dernier champ montre les simulations effectuées sur un sondage individuel et cette photo montre une simulation du sondage la plus récente d'Abacus Data 2025-04-27 de la moyenne de sièges pour chaque parti en utilisant les mêmes étiquettes de la Simulation Climathosphere. La Simulation Climathosphere pondèrent les sondages en fonction de la proximité temporelle, de la marge d'erreur, de la taille d'échantillon et de la cote de fiabilité qc125.com pour chaque enquêteur.

Simulation Climathosphere :
Libéral : VPM 42,2 % CSMN 186,4
Conservateurs : VPM 38,6% CSMN 126,5
NPD : VPM 9,6% CSMN 12,6
Vert : VPM 2,0% CSMN 1,3
Bloc Québécois : VPM 5,6% CSMN 16,3
PPC : VPM 1,9 CSMN 0

Simulation d'Abacus Data (2025-04-27)
Libéral : VPM 41% CSMN 175.7
Conservateurs : VPM 39% CSMN 132.2
NPD : VPM 10% CSMN 13.8
Vert : VPM 1% CSMN 0
Bloc Québécois : VPM 6% CSMN 21.4
PPC : VPM 3 CSMN 0

Photo of an Excel spreadsheet that calculates the average predicted seat count of each party in the 2025 Canadian General Federal Election using data from 338canada.com

Three groups of rows are shown. The first one is data from 338canada.com that models the linear slopes shown on the website. The second group of rows (named after my username) show the average popular vote (APV), the average seat count (ASC), and normalized average seat count (NASC) for each party. The third and final group of rows show simulations done on an individual poll, and this photo has the simulation using the latest Abacus Data poll 2025-04-27 to simulate the seat counts (using the same row labels as the Climathosphere simulation). Polls in the Climathosphere simulation are weighted based on time proximity, margin of error, sample size, and 338Canada reliability rating for each poll.

Climathosphere simulation:
Liberal: APV 42.2% NASC 186.4
Conservative: APV 38.6% NASC 126.5
NDP: APV 9.6% NASC 12.6
Green: APV 2.0% NASC 1.3
Bloc Québecois: APV 5.6% NASC 16.3
PPC: APV 1.9 NASC 0

Latest Abacus Data Poll (2025-04-27)
Liberal: APV 41% NASC 175.7
Conservative: APV 39% NASC 132.2
NDP: APV 10% NASC 13.8
Green: APV 1% NASC 0
Bloc Québecois: APV 6% NASC 21.4
PPC: APV 3 NASC 0

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Jan 7

If that is what the capitalists are saying about Argentina 🇦🇷 right now, then those capitalists are lying! GDP in Argentina 🇦🇷 actually has been contantly shrinking year over year since Milei took office. tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gd...

Plot of Argentina GDP growth YoY

Data Points

Q4 2021 +8.4 %
Q1 2022 +6.9 %
Q2 2022 +7 %
Q3 2022 +6 %
Q4 2022 +1.3 %
Q1 2023 +1.1 %
Q2 2023 -5.3 %
Q3 2023 -0.7 %
Q4 2023 -1.2 %
Q1 2024 -5.1 %
Q2 2024 -1.7 %
Q3 2024 -2.1 %

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/gdp-growth-annual

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Dec 26

Mohammed Hatem 🇵🇸 www.backabuddy.co.za/campaign/gaz...

Picture of Mohammed Hatem staring at the destruction of his village that the Israeli regime performed as part of its genocide against the Palestinian people of the Gaza strip.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Nov 27

Also, please do not tell me that things can be anonymized! People share names, usernames, fundraisers, bank accounts, and such on here. There is no algorithm that detects it all. Given the use criteria shown, there is no boundary to prevent information collection for malicious intent.

Use criteria for the Bluesky dataset uploaded by HuggingFace. The use criteria reads as follows:

USES
Direct Use
This dataset should be used for:
* Training and testing language models on social media content
* Analyzing social media posting patterns
* Studying conversion structures and reply networks
* Research on social media content moderation
* Natural language processing tasks using social media datas

Out-of-Scope Use
This dataset should not be used for:
* Building automated posting systems for Bluesky
* Creating fake or impersonated content
* Extracting personal information about users
* Any purpose that violates Bluesky's Terms of Service

Source :
https://huggingface.co/datasets/bluesky-community/one-million-bluesky-posts

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Nov 21

I honestly just tried to access his account directly to try and block him and this is the result I got.

An error text that says "Account has been suspended" for the account @bill-ackman.bsky.social.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Oct 29

My final calculations of the probabilities that each major party will get the most seats in the 2024 #Saskatchewan General Election. Probabilities were calculated using an error bar analysis and a time-weighted average of all the polls leading up to the day of the election.

A table that shows the probabilities for each party in Saskatchewan that will win the 2024 Saskatchewan Election. The results state that the NDP has a 78% percent chance of winning the election compared to 21% for the Saskatchewan Party.

Plot of all the opinion polls taken from 2020 to 2024. Polls show the Saskatchewan party in the lead for the first 3 years, but then the NDP then takes lead in the polls at the end of 2024 during the campaign.

Plot of all the opinion polls taken in 2024. Polls show the Saskatchewan party in the lead for most of the year, but then the NDP then takes lead in the polls at the end of 2024 during the campaign.

List of opinion polls for the Saskatchewan election. Polls show the Saskatchewan party in the lead for the first 3 years, but then the NDP then takes lead in the polls at the end of 2024 during the campaign.

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Oct 22

When liberalism and anti-intellectualism meet, shake hands, and mingle together as one:

TRIGGER WARNING: ANTI-INTELLECTUALISM

Anti-intellectual liberal named "tom-vepr.bsky.social" spouting anti-intellectual garbage.

One of his comments on Oct 21, 2024:

"Philosophy is a fascist movement that want [sic] to eliminate freedom of thought."

The anti-intellectual liberal here is to unintellectual to find that his grammar is completely wrong here in this garbage. The verb to want is misconjuated as "want" instead of "wants".

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Oct 11

Mohammed Hatem 🇵🇸 (aka. #Gym #Rat of #Gaza) has a #mutual #aid fundraising campaign that ends in 7 days. He gives updates on Instagram and TikTok about his daily #gym life in Gaza under the #genocide. Mohammed was best friends with Medo Halimy, and the loss of Medo was heartbreaking for him. (1/3)

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Oct 1

Remember that Canada committed a genocide against the Indigenous people. #EveryChildMatters #TruthAndReconcilliation #TRC #Indigenous #NationalDayForTruthAndReconcilliation #Canada #ResidentialSchoolAwareness #OrangeShirtDay #Genocide

Square with orange background that says "10,028 and counting..."

This is the total number of verifiable unmarked graves (read mass graves) so far of Indigenous children in Canada that were killed in the Orwellian-named "residential schools" (they were actually concentration camps).

Image credit: @jacksaddleback IG

Climathosphere 🏳️‍🌈🇵🇸🇱🇧@climathosphere· Aug 6

Full Metal Jack-Ass: The LLM/Chat-GPT DeepFake Edition, with Full Metal Jack-Ass Defects!