Chris Vagasky
@coweatherman
American Meteorologist Blixtexperten Weather Measurements Guy Award-Winning Communicator AMS Certified Digital Meteorologist #18
100+ temps are indicative of the fact that these are low cost consumer grade stations that get installed wherever someone wants to put it and no QC to flag inaccurate data. This doesn’t tell the story of our weather conditions, it shows the importance of trustworthy weather networks/data.
Lightning fluctuates ~10% year to year because of meteorological conditions. Data from NLDN and satellite-based lightning detection systems show that lightning has remained relatively consistent so far in the 21st century. ⚡🧪🧵 (9/14)
There are no perfect lightning warnings, but lightning detection systems work really well. Anyone interested in a lightning warning system should know how they work and their limitations. Work with a lightning safety expert to tailor a solution for your individual use case! ⚡🧪🧵 (6/14)
Now, it's important to note that these results only apply to that one system, but I've heard and seen other stories about the systems being prone to false alarms. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence - and so far I haven't seen extraordinary evidence to their claims! ⚡🧪🧵 (5/14)
They've had 10 hour warnings with no lightning and warnings issued just 12 seconds before lightning struck. ⚡🧪🧵 (5/14)
The results were not good. An 81.3% false alarm rate, despite the company saying almost zero false alarms. 29 events where they failed to warn. A critical success index of 0.045! ⚡🧪🧵 (4/14)
I checked lightning warnings issued by the system against NLDN cloud-to-ground lightning data between 2021 and 2024. Checked false alarms, failures to warn, and both good and bad successes. A bad success is when a warning doesn't fall within their 8-20 minute warning time. ⚡🧪🧵 (3/14)
I've actually reviewed 4 years worth of data from one of their systems in Florida. The results were not very good at warning for cloud-to-ground lightning. They claim 97% accuracy within 2 miles with zero false alarms. The data don't back that up. ⚡🧪🧵 (2/14)
Think about the tiniest ladybug you’ve ever seen. Now make it smaller.
From a college kid with 27,000 followers on Facebook. *eye twitches uncontrollably*
These don’t match any of my seed packets. Anybody know what kind of squash these are? 🌱
See that brighter red spot in the circle? That’s an area of stronger winds that looks like went through the area. The storm seems to have interacted with outflow from another storm further southeast, so Philly got winds from a couple different directions.
Going to call him Fort Atkinson Frank and make weather predictions on February 2.
I am not a bettor, but please, someone explain to me, how in the Round of 16 "Draw" is an option for you to bet on.
What a shame you are such a pretty moth, but you are not allowed in my garden.
Let freedom ride? Ride like an eagle? Idk but I feel like I bumped up over a little plateau today and averaged 15+ on this ride that had no shortage of inclines.
This penny is not quite the pot of gold I was expecting at the end of the rainbow.
