1/2 Average S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index closely mirror investor confidence and can highlight periods of excessive optimism/pessimism. By this measure, bullishness is extremely high right now...

1/2 The Russell 2000 has been reliably outperforming the S&P 500 for almost a year, and we continue to believe an index-weight (14%) allocation to small caps is a sensible approach for domestic portfolios...

1/2 As the AI trade widens out, it has driven US Big Tech's correlation with the S&P 500 to its lowest level since 2017, suggesting investors are increasingly focused on company-specific AI fundamentals rather than macro risks...

For the first time this year, one can justify a bullish view on the S&P 500 using simply consensus earnings estimates and a historically average PE ratio. Against these modest assumptions, the index has 8% upside from here.

1/2 Since 1928, US large cap stocks have always generated positive nominal and real returns over 20 calendar year holding periods, although the results have been anywhere from +2.6/+0.6% (1929 – 1948) to +17.7/+13.7% (1980 – 1999)...

Single-B spreads today (2.83 points) are below both where they were a year ago (3.21 points) and their one-year average (3.08 points), a resounding vote of confidence in the American economy from this especially risk-wary part of the US corporate debt market.

The scale of 2026 and 2027 index earning revisions – both solidly double-digit percentages – is not just due to Tech, but consistent earnings beats across many sectors. This was especially true in Q1 2026.

The equal-weighted large cap Tech sector index is outpacing its market cap weighted counterpart by the widest margin since the Pandemic-fueled speculative bubble of early 2021. $XLK $RSPT

Tech's 100-day outperformance versus the S&P 500 recently hit its most extreme level since January 2000, a 3 standard deviation move. $XLK

1/2 Average S&P sector correlations to the index reflect market confidence. By this measure, investors are very optimistic right now. The only recently comparable period was mid-2024, going into a 9% correction caused by a yen revaluation/Nikkei flash crash...

1/2 The Nasdaq's current bull run is tracking its mid-1990s analog with remarkable precision & is now even pulling modestly ahead. The 2023 – present rally has weathered macro shocks that proved temporary, just as they did then...

US Google search volumes for SpaceX are currently very close to the US stock market generally as well as #bitcoin. Retail interest in its IPO is every bit as intense as one would expect. Its effect on Day One/Week One returns is, however, unknowable.

1/2 US large cap Tech recently outperformed the S&P 500 by +6 standard deviations over the prior 50 days. No other rally since 2015 comes anywhere close. Prior periods of lesser but still statistically significant outperformance suggest further gains, even with Friday’s selloff...

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US large cap Semiconductor stocks just delivered their strongest outperformance versus the S&P 500 in 25 years, even surpassing the sharp bear market rebounds in the early 2000s. $SMH

1/2 The S&P has posted weaker compounded price returns from June – October (+120%) than January – May (+602%) or Nov – Dec (+310%). But, not being invested in the 5 months after May meant missing out on positive returns in most years...

1/2 US supercore inflation is stuck at levels well above both its 2010s average & the Fed’s target. It even saw an uptick last month, to 3.5% from March’s 3.4% & Feb’s 3.3%...

Two-year US Treasuries yield 32 bps more than Fed Funds, suggesting the possibility of rate hikes later this year. However, history shows this signal only becomes predictive at +50 bps.

1/3 The Nasdaq Comp has more than doubled over the last 3 years (+118.3%), but that return is nowhere close to the all-time high on March 27th 2000 (+296.8%)...

The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has been a reliable recession predictor since the 1980s. This relationship has broken down in the 2020s, however, and that suggests a much more resilient US economy.

1/2 The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is a time-proven measure of investor confidence in human innovation. At its peak in 2000, the S&P traded for 5.5x an ounce of gold. Now, the ratio is 1.6x, the same as its 1970 – present average...

1/2 Rising inflation expectations embedded in 5-yr Treasuries (now 2.69%) are on the verge of exceeding 2023-present highs (2.71%). Meanwhile, real (ex-inflation) 5-yr yields are trending lower & well below their recent average (1.32 vs 1.68%)...

Both US High Yield corporate bond spreads over Treasuries and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index are back to below-average levels, a multi-market confirmation of reduced recession risk.

1/2 US corporate profits have been growing faster than the domestic economy since the year 2000. The relationship between the two sits at/near record highs today. Some of this is certainly due to Big Tech’s global business models...

1/2 The labor market value of a college degree for younger workers has been falling for a decade, with AI now accelerating this structural trend. Recent college grads had consistently lower unemployment than the general population from 1990 until the late 2010s…

At the start of 2022’s bear market, Wall Street analysts had Buy ratings on 57.5% of all their companies, a high back to at least 2010. In March 2026, this ratio has hit a new record high, at 58.2%.

1/3 US Big Tech is now outperforming rest of world Tech amid geopolitical uncertainty after lagging in both January and February. US Big Tech names are globally scalable, market leaders with large competitive positions and are therefore perceived as “safer” investments than...

1/2 The MSCI All-Country index has a 3.9% weighting in Energy, which means investors measured against this global equity benchmark should have at least that much exposure to the sector. It’s less for US large cap equity investors, at 3.5% of the S&P 500...

1/2 Nothing in major EM markets comes close to MSCI South Korea (+55.7% YTD). The two stocks driving those returns are Samsung (29.3% of the index, +81.9% YTD) and SK Hynix (20.3%, +63.0% YTD)...

Yesterday's Initial Claims report showed the US labor market remains in its delicate balance of little firing to go along with equally modest hiring. Year to date, weekly Initial Claims are running below the 2022 – present average.