Most of it was consumed in the first six weeks. It will have been a key driver of the April ceasefire. Graphic from @osinttechnical.bsky.social on X.

I think we tend to underrate Harry Kane in England. He's more than a very capable number nine. He's one of the best ever. Equal eighth on the all-time international goal-scorers list - more than Rooney and Shearer combined - and at a higher ratio than virtually anyone with more goals.

I hope so too - I'm sure I will! I assume you've seen this but it amused me when I was there a couple of years ago. Were you able to get a look around?

It arrived today. That'll be summer holiday reading mostly sorted.

For contrast, this is the breakdown of when the monthly records were set for coldest temperatures: 1800s: 1 1900-1949: 5 1950-1999: 6 2000-present: none (There are several joint-records but oddly all of the entries in each of the respective months fall within the same period)

Britain has fairly comprehensive, accurate weather records going back about 175 years. Victorians loved to measure stuff. This is the breakdown of when the current hottest month records were set: 1800s: none 1900-1949: 2 1950-1999: 1 2000-present: 9 Of those this century 6 are 2019-present.

Until 2003, the highest *ever* temperature recorded in the UK was 37.1C Were it not for the escalations of recent years, we'd be talking about a potential *all-time* record high today. But the record's been broken three times since then and is now 3C higher.

Interesting and important point in Rob Ford's latest article on Makerfield (and beyond). It's easy to talk too glibly of a Ref/Con block. There are still quite a lot of Tories who see Reform (never mind Restore) as an unacceptable option. swingometer.substack.com/p/by-electio...

The Lords test has just produced the third-lowest match aggregate in which all forty wickets fell since 1960. Not good enough.

That's not what the poll says. It says the public are (currently) opposed to paying a *larger* membership fee than before Brexit. The poll also gives Rejoin a 53-30 lead so the public very clearly is ready to for renewed membership.

6/6 What is clear is that if the UK was to rejoin the EU, a referendum would be politically essential, with a 67-17 split. Referendums on first-tier constitutional issues are now a convention, and rapidly solidifying into a constitutional (if not legal) requirement. - END -

5/n Opinion on the Euro might be the bigger block, given the EU would no doubt expect at least a formal commitment to join. Opinion runs 61-25 against (though a quarter favouring Euro membership isn't trivial). That said, Sweden, Poland and others have the same commitment and aren't in.

4/n Indeed, opinion on Brexit is dire for Leave/Stay Out, with a near 5-to-1 balance (53-11) who think Brexit has made things worse. That's pretty solid emperical, practical belief for Rejoin campaigners to work with.

Some interesting figures from Lord Ashcroft's latest polling on the UK rejoining the EU. The headline number looks extremely positive for Rejoin, with a 52-30 lead for Rejoin (or 63-37 excluding DK/WNV), however that lead is probably quite soft. [thread]

Well, you know who he aspires to ...

For once, Trump does have a point blaming his inheritance from Biden. Trump is blasting through the US strategic petroleum reserve (50m barrels withdrawn in 8 weeks) but Biden took out almost 300m barrels between Jan 2021 and Jul 2023 - close to half the entire reserve - and only restocked 50m.

These are the latest stats on vacancies: falling on both a quarterly and annual basis. Certainly it's true that vacancies are higher than the post-GFC/austerity era but not by much, and are well below the unemployment count (leaving aside the skills/geographic mismatches).

This is a slow-burn story that deserves more prominence. UK unemployment has risen steadily from about 3.6% in 2022 to 5% now. Youth unemployment is particularly high. Vacancies are falling, as are real wages. Unsurprising that there's a political backlash. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I hate this obsessively Westminster-centric framing. There is a world outside. Being Mayor of Greater Manchester is very much "on the [political] pitch". It's that kind of attitude - that anywhere outside SW1 is a place where things are done to, not in - that makes devolution so necessary.

This has the look of a hospital pass about it for Burnham. Assuming he can get as far as the shortlist and Labour's NEC doesn't block him again (they'd be idiots to but that may not stop them).

Spectacularly bad call from No 10. Utterly out of touch both with political niceties and political reality. At this rate, he'll be pre-announcing his resignation this evening.

Swinney can argue for a second Independence referendum all he likes but the SNP won only a little over a quarter of the regional vote, and pro-independence parties collectively won only 42.7%. AMS is distorting results and Scotland should follow Wales's lead in a move to a more proportional system.

It's a measure of the political earthquake that's just hit England (and, if less so, Scotland and Wales), that Labour began the night defending over 2500 council seats and ended it being overtaken by a party that began the night defending 2. Reform also overtook Con, LD and Grn in the process.

I don't know if this was a photo captured at an unrepresentative moment but Trump's body posture here is odd. Absolutely no energy. Usually, even if speakers aren't actively animating their words with gestures, they'll be in a neutral position ready to do so. Here, his arms are just dangling.

Fascinating snippet from Paul Krugman's latest substack. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-oil-sq... 80% of the supply lost from the closure of the Strait is being replaced by reserves. If those reserves run out, prices should soar by ~4 times what they already have. Which'd be about $260/barrel.

Not the best option to stop racism though. Add in their economic illiteracy and authoritarian principles and I don't see them as all that different to Reform.

UK 10 year gilts trading at a new post-GFC high, nudging 5%. Unhelpful. Though the Iran War will generate inflation, depress growth and enlarge the budget deficit, so unsurprising. FWIW, I'm surprised the US rates haven't gone up similarly, or more, given all the risks and impacts there.

Oof. Robbins alleges that No 10 asked for its sacked Director of Comms Matthew Doyle (himself not clear of scandal) be compensated with an ambassadorship. That's going to land badly with Labour MPs. Indeed, it could blow up to be worse than the Mandelson question - Starmer directly implicated.

2/n The Iranian objectives were perhaps just as opaque (unsurprisingly given the changing leaderships), but from their actions, comments and natural aspirations, we might get a list something like