The projected gap is under 0.1% to the SDLP and 0.2% to PBP so the UUP could absolutely take one from either. The UUP are up a lot but so are the SDLP and PBP which is limiting them in Foyle, but it does mean that UUP gains are larger in more unionist areas.

NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump.

There's no majority for either unionism or nationalism, but this closer than 2022 (especially if you add PBP to the Nationalist side).

This is the worst poll for the DUP in years. They've fallen behind the UUP in votes but should have a better geographic spread and will get more TUV transfers which keeps them ahead of the UUP in seats.

Sinn Féin and the DUP are both well, well down on 2022 which is costing a lot of seats. Alliance are also down with the UUP, TUV, SDLP and Greens benefitting.

Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

If this was the case, the TUV would have the awkward choice of going into government WITH Sinn Féin or giving their seat TO Sinn Féin. But even a single seat could change the D'Hondt calculation.

Here is every projected constituency winner, some of the 4th and 5th seats are very close.

Sinn Féin would remain the largets party despite a 4% drop from 2022. The DUP are also down 4% but are losing even more seats. Alliance also down, the TUV and Greens are up the most.

As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Labour are expected to win most seats whilst the Greens are expected to win 5 list seats. If Reform take a constituency (either Havering & Redbridge or Bexley & Bromley) it would be the first to ever be won by a party other than Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative.

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵

At the executive, the SDLP would be back to qualifying for a seat as the big three slip backwards from 2022.

Its a relatively poor poll for the TUV (compared to recent polls) and a good one for the UUP. Some of the fallout from the Beattie - Burrows battle is probably in here but we don't know exactly how that played out with voters. It's solid for the DUP.

The Greens are the biggest movers . They're up to 6% which a huge share for them. This would inevitably take at least three seats. North Down, BS&MD, and East Belfast are the best bets but North Belfast is in the mix.

This is a decent poll for Sinn Féin compared to some recent ones, ditto for Alliance. Both are still down a bit though. Alliance are holding a lot of seats based on Green transfers.

Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 15 🔷 UUP — 12 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 5 🌱 GP — 4 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

This is a ridiculous set of swings

We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland Lib Dem: Orkney SNP: Dundee City West devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ We're also top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it might be the last time it happens

We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites. The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow. Results: devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ Accuracy: devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/

There are multiple potential different outcomes in every Senedd constituency, nothing is decided and the final seats will come down to tiny margins. Go out and vote, its just a simple X. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

There are 12 Scottish constituencies with a over 25% of going to different parties, and far more than that which could flip if some of yesterday's oultying polls are right. List seats everywhere can be decided by small margins Go out and vote! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

It's almost a perfect 50-50 split in terms of who's going to be the largest party by seats. Across 1000 simulations Plaid won 498 and Reform won 502.

Reform and Plaid Cymru should get at least 1 seat everywhere, usually at least 2. Labour also likely to have a majority in most constituencies. Labour aren't likely to get more than 1 anywhere. The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Tories are a bit more sporadic.

A broad left government or a Plaid/Lab government are both on the cards. Reform don't have a viable to path to a majority.

Lots of conflicting polls today means big changes to our Senedd Nowcast. We have a dead heat in seats and a small Plaid lead in votes. 🌼 PC — 34 ➡️ Ref — 34 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 6 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

The SNP would need the Greens to get to a majority (case-by-case or formal coalition). An SNP majority is not impossible but does look less likely than a few weeks ago.

On the List we don't think the SNP will win any seats. Labour, the Greens and Reform should get 1 everywhere, the Tories only miss out in Glasgow. This would change a lot with just a little shift in the constituencies.

Here are 4 of those non-SNP seats (1 per party) some are razor thin. All, none or some could go another way. Our Monte Carlo system gives a better idea of this complexity. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...