Turnout from President 2020-2024. Kind of funny how you can see certain states so obviously, especially the swing states. I'd say generally in swing states though, rural areas higher turnout than urban areas when compared to 2020. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

IDK, Central Valley in CA maybe? It tends to stand out a lot on my similarity map score

Kind of an interesting tidbit from the new @economist.com and @yougov.co.uk poll today. They asked 2 similar questions about preference for the 2026 midterms. One was the generic ballot question they ask every week, which was D+4. The other was preference for who wins the House... and that was D+7.

All of the House Districts that went from Biden 2020 -> Trump 2024 that are not majority White (using current House Borders). Quite a few Majority Hispanic districts in Florida, Texas, and California! Link: electioncord.com/suffragium/

Here's the map in 2D mode, just in case the 3D mode wasn't super clear about specific areas. I just like to throw it in every once in a while so people remember that's something you can do on our map programs!

The 2016 and 2022 Senate Elections were roughly under the same national environments, even if it didn't feel like it. Dems actually did pretty well, with only a New York sized hole being the exception. Dems flipped AZ and PA, while holding in GA. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

Next is Missouri. The Republicans in the state redrew the maps to get rid of the Kansas City district, and splitting it. I added back in that district, and made a second district entirely within the St. Louis metro, which is a swingy seat that voted for Harris by 4%. Thoughts?

Could South Carolina be interesting now? Maybe, it kind of depends. The closest Senate election in the Trump era was Graham's last Senate race, where he won by 10% against Jaime Harrison. Harrison actually had good turnout, but he didn't do well enough up-state to have a shot. (1/2)

NOW OUT... a game? We made a game based on our Tabula America Proportio program, called Districtle! You have 6 guesses to guess that House district! We have 3 modes, using demographics, elections, and a combined version. LINK: electioncord.com/districtle/

Next up is Arizona. I actually had a pretty tough time with this, making sure the map was both compact and put similar demographic groups together. This was a 5R-4D map in 2024, with 2 Majority Hispanic districts, and a 5D-4R map in 2020. Thoughts on how (not) good it is?

Median Household Income by State. In the grand scheme of things, New Mexico is the odd one out, as Democratic states tend to be wealthier than Republican ones. The state that sticks out in the opposite direction is certainly Utah, which would be Dem leaning if it wasn't Mormon.

As requested by a user of our website, we added a new color scheme to our Tabula America Proportio map! If you didn't know, there's plenty of color schemes you can choose from in the settings, and if you have any other color scheme suggestions, let us know! LINK: electioncord.com/proportio/

The fact that there's still a pretty strong correlation between turnout and household income today is pretty interesting. It's almost like you can still see the remnants of a time where wealthier people's votes meant more then poorer people. Link: electioncord.com/charta/

One thing that I think should get mentioned more, is that not all Hispanics vote the same way! They may have shifted in a similar way from 20-24, but they weren't all Dem +40% to start. Case in point, Cubans in South Florida. They actually are one of the most Rep. voting groups in the whole country!

Maybe the start of a series? Where I redistrict each state to try to be fair and representative. First up is Virginia, which had a whole fiasco regarding mid-decade redistricting, that ultimately did not pan out. This is a 7D-4R map, with 5 districts being competitive (within 10%)

If Dems have a really good night, they could hope to flip FL-26, a majority-Hispanic district in Miami. It went to Trump by 18% in 2024, but also did go to Clinton by 16% in 2016. The most similar districts to it are usurpingly, other Republican Hispanic districts in Florida.

Can midterms be predictive of presidential elections? Well, it depends, but there certainly are example of it happening. For instance, there was fairly clear evidence of Hispanics shifting right in 2018, which ended up happening in 2020.

Yea, shifted by about 2% left, but R+34 is a big hole to climb out of

Here's the opposite of Salt Lake City, Las Vegas. While it is more Dem-leaning than SLC, it also shifted a lot more to Trump from 2020-2024. It shifted by about 7% from 2020-2024, singlehandedly enough to flip Nevada to Trump. Link: electioncord.com/suffragium/

Obviously borders may not be perfect, if you want to check it out for yourself you can here: electioncord.com/suffragium/

Yea, +61,000 people in the first part of the decade, according to our map, Wikipedia has it a bit higher though.

The Salt Lake City metro, only voted for Trump by about 9% in 2024. What's pretty crazy is it only shifted .45% right from 2020-2024, well to the left of the Trump +6% shift nationwide. I don't think Blutah happens anytime soon, but it could become interesting soon.

One thing about Maine that is pretty unique for a Democratic leaning state is that, it's relatively non-college educated! The state as a whole is only about 36% college educated. Only New Mexico is less college educated than Maine among states Harris won in 2024. Link: electioncord.com/charta/

A lot of polls ask a question like "Do you think the country is going in the right or wrong direction?" and we actually track that. Somehow, it's been going down pretty much since February, to the point where almost 2/3rds of Americans think it's going in the wrong direction.

We made a small update to our Proportio map. You can now select multiple different districts to find out what the most similar districts are when combining all selected districts. For example, the most similar state to the rust belt swing state is Iowa. LINK: electioncord.com/proportio/

I was looking through very old posts of mine on Discord and found this, man I miss prime 538.

The district being used here is one of our 100K districts, WV's 1st District, which comprises mostly of Charleston, WV. The most similar districts are unsurprisingly, exurban and rural white areas, and the least similar districts are minority areas in cities/TX/CA.

Here's the US by how similar each state is to how Pennsylvania has voted in elections. Unsurprisingly, the most similar states are swing states, but interesting that Virginia is closer to PA than PA is to Nevada/Arizona

OUT NOW: Our brand new Tabula America Program, Proportio! This lets you compare different districts based on a similarity score, which can take demographics, election information, or both into consideration. LINK: electioncord.com/proportio/

Of special note as well, Indies and Hispanics have considerably soured on Trump since then, with only Black people have a more positive view of him. Indies also went from favoring Republicans in 2018, to clearly favoring Democrats in 2026. Thoughts?