Ewan Hoyle
@ewanhoyle
Author of the Sprint for PR Substack: @ewanhoyle.substack.com Advocate for ranked preference polling and voting systems. We can fairly (and totally) remove Reform UK's path to power through electoral reform.
This is half-assed nonsense from @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-... There is no way STV would produce the same number of seats for the Lib Dems as a party list. If you're modeling AMS, you have to model AV+ alongside. Non-corrective AV+ would be even better...
And if that doesn't happen, it's the moment for all of us to fix the electoral system so that c***s with under 50% support don't get elected. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
In March the Green Party were 10 points ahead of Labour in first preferences in England. If they'd bothered to tell anyone, Labour might have been finished. You suck, Keir. Goodbye.
So if a party had a preference profile like this (1st prefs at top down to 5th prefs at the bottom), what proportion of seats do you think they ideally should get?
And the only way to stop them stealing the next election is electoral reform. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
So if the general population were asked to choose between making one vote for one party and expressing their full opinion on all candidates by ranking them, you think they'd choose the former? We don't know because the AV referendum was never framed in these terms.
ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/av-as-the-... And here's the alternative framing that might just work.
One side-effect of something like the 5% rule in Germany is extremist parties that get beyond the 5% end up over-represented beyond their fair share of their single votes. AfD are on 24% of seats from 20.8% of the vote. I suspect their ranked preference profile would be worse than Reform UK's
...before sharing her distressing hate speech for kids in celebration of the EHRC guidance. I have at least discovered there are multiple families out there who have cut off grandparents for transphobic campaigning. It's a support network I desperately need right now, but don't know how to access.
Thanks for looking into this for us. My mum is a big fan of Rowling's, and has worn an "adult human female" t-shirt to a park-run. Since losing my shit at her over that, she then made "Granny's Flag" available to my two young children. Written by Rachel Rooney. Published by Transgender Trend.
Are you saying this wasn't a target? Just genuinely testing my theory out.
That is not something anyone should be that confident of. They were 10 points ahead of Labour on voters' first preferences last month. Tactical voting intention is concealing their ceiling. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Ew...
If ranked preference polling is a better reflection of people’s true political opinions (it is), the Greens should be the party taking 21 London councils, not Labour. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/how-the-gr...
Here's some polling the other parties should be very worried about. substack.com/home/post/p-...
A party that over half a country would rank last should not be able to govern that country. We need electoral reform to a ranked preference voting system so that all our rankings matter.
Just to be clear, the results of the YouGov poll I commissioned showed the Green Party as the first preference of 26% of respondents, and Reform UK as the last preference of 51% of respondents (weighted). Standard voting intention polls aren't showing you the full picture.
My analysis of the 2024 result: The powers that be bottled it then, and I think they might be bottling it now. You have ambition for the party. How much does the senior staff have? Will you win 10% of council seats next month when you should win half of them? substack.com/@sprintforpr...
Resounding support for Green Party drug policy in the Lancet HIV. Describes Labour attacks as an "outdated ideological position that denies public health evidence" 🔥✊️
@stephenkb.bsky.social Hi Stephen. I saw you were talking about the Alternative Vote the other day. I did some ranked preference polling with YouGov, and AV would thoroughly humiliate Reform UK due to the fact half the population would rank them dead last. substack.com/home/post/p-...
I understand you speculating, but it's really bad reporting of what I think is a really important poll (Or I wouldn't have commissioned it). ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Ew...
I've been doing rough modeling with the British Election Study results (over 25k respondents in England). The Lib Dems came out as the largest party under AV with the approximate ranked preferences from the preferential poll in October. That despite them being 5th on 1st preferences.
I'd like to discuss the results of this with you, Steve. It largely confirms the suspicions I lay out here. substack.com/@sprintforpr...