Peter Ellis
@freerangestats
Director, Statistics for Development Division, at the Pacific Community. Posts are personal views, and most likely to be about data and #rstats, maybe with bits of history, social science and philosophy thrown in. Blog is at
US crude oil stocks recovered slightly in the latest weekly EIA data - little fishhook in the blue line in this chart. freerangestats.info/fuel-crisis/...
I have added to my little personal collection of fuel-crisis-monitoring charts a plot of the retail prices of petrol/gasoline and diesel, in USA and New Zealand (where filling your car, quite rightly, costs US$7 per gallon). Blog and #rstats code at freerangestats.info/blog/2026/08...
Finally, of more limited interest perhaps, inflation in the Pacific showed signs of moderating, with prices in Fiji declining somewhat in July. Overall inflation in Pacific Islands has seen a very mixed impact from the Iran war.
Stocks in the key storage and distribution facility at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased above the 20 million barrels danger threshold.
US crude oil stocks (including Strategic Petroleum Reserve) arrested their downwards slide in the latest data. They are now 20 weeks of linear decline from reaching a theoretical stress point of 30 days refinery cover; an improvement from 19 weeks a week ago. freerangestats.info/fuel-crisis/...
I couldn't find the exact annotated plot of total US oil stocks I wanted, so I had to make my own. At the rate of decline since its recent peak, there are 19 weeks left to having 30 days cover of refinery needs. Blog with #rstats code at freerangestats.info/blog/2026/08...
Oil at the storage and distribution hub in Cushing, Oklahoma has gone down below 20 million barrels again.
Very short #rstats blog post on polishing this chart of crude oil levels at Cushing, Oklahoma. This is one of the indicators I have been monitoring during the ongoing global fuel situation. Below 20m barrels is "tank bottoms" that might cause problems for markets. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/07...
Yesterday's data show the levels of crude oil in storage at Cushing in Oklahoma have taken a turn upwards in the last week, showing there is some reality behind the talks/hopes of increased availability of oil.
I #rstats blogged about using the long term real GDP per capita estimates in the Maddison Project database, to draw charts comparing a country's "average" growth since 1990 to the actual trajectory. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/06...
I don't really know if this is as big a problem as it seems, but recently people were saying that if Cushing oil stocks went below 20 million barrels it starts to freeze up the US oil market. Well, it is below there this week, and surely has a bit further down to go.
Discovered something very weird happening with the software I use to convert SVGs (my main image type on my blog) to PNGs to fall back on. It's like it's going through bad OCR - Liz Truss becomes Miz Trutt, George Canning has become Geoshe Cbooloh. And what has happened to that subtitle?
While certainly there has been a lot of churn in UK prime ministers in the last decade or so, it's not that remarkable in historical terms, or an obvious trend. In fact, the long terms of Thatcher and Blair stand out as much as the more recent burst of short terms.
Like many people I am interested in the rate of UK prime ministerial churn, so I wrote an #rstats blog on it and experimenting with various visualisation approaches. I quite like this Gantt-like chart showing the terms of all PMs since 1721. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/06...
Interesting that when I search 'in the weights' with my own name I am only the 8th most prominent Peter Ellis, with a strength of 68; but when I search as freerangestats it still returns my personal name but now with a strength of 316.
Blog post on seasonal adjustment in #rstats, using Samoan visitor arrivals since 2017 as a test case. Using seasonal, fable and feasts packages turns out to be easy. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/06...
RStudio by @posit.co has taken a step backwards by my preferences. Nothing I can do in the options seems to stop Post Assistant pane jumping up and taking up real estate; and the "project" drop down box has vanished. Not a happy camper. Will probably have to look for an old version to install.
Comparing it to the duration of past wars (which range from 4 days in length to 10+ years), the US-Israel-Iran war is now longer than the Boxer Rebellion war, but not quite as long as the Falklands or the War for Kosovo (names used are those in the Correlates of War data).
Of wars that get to the 74 day mark, the median total duration is 261 days. Which is grim news those who have noted that the Iran war will cause major economic problems if it lasts even another month. #rstats blog post, with @correlatesofwar.bsky.social data, at freerangestats.info/blog/2026/05...
I like to think that 'the happy isles - you hit me, we hit you' says something about the duality of something or other.
It's in the Wall Street Journal including Trump saying its a workable basis.
But fuel oil in singapore has nearly doubled in price. I think what is going on is a combination of lag, competition in shipping, and fuel surcharges not being included in the container price index.
This is the short list of public, frequently updated prices I'm monitoring for the economic impact of the war in Iran on Asia-Pacific. Are there any suggestions or corrections #econsky? Why is the Intra-Asia Container Index not showing price increases comparable to the other indicators?
Most Pacific island countries also do most of their household cooking with kerosene or gas fuel (and bear in mind that 'electricity' in this chart mostly means diesel, for now). 2/2
Pacific island countries are *extremely* dependent on oil and gas products - particularly diesel - for electricity generation. Brief blog with #rstats code at freerangestats.info/blog/2026/03... 1/2
One of the consequences is extraordinarily high remittances rates. Anyway, this is all expanded on in the post at freerangestats.info/blog/2026/03....
Four out of ten of the biggest Pacific Islander cities in the world are in Australia, New Zealand and USA.