Gregory Daco
@gregdaco
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon President @National Association for Business Economics Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt Football player & @ManCity Once-a-year triathlete Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
❗️Wholesale price inflation remains well above the 2017-19 range but is now moving in the right direction 🔥PPI #inflation: 5.5% y/y (-0.5pt) 🔶High since 2023 🔥Core PPI 5.1% y/y (flat) 🔶High since 2022
Cooling wholesale price #inflation in June! 📉Headline #PPI -0.3% m/m ✅Core +0.1% 📉Gds -1.4% 🍳Food -0.6% ⛽️Energy -6.4% ✅Core +0.2% ✅Svc 0.2% 🚚Transport -0.1% ⚖️Trade (margins) +0.4% 📉PPI inflation: 5.5% y/y (-0.5pt) 📉Core inflation 5.1% (flat)
Very impressive performance by Spain 🇪🇸 Great positioning on and off the ball and exceptional midfield control ! A wonderful team effort against a disappointing French side — it simply wasn’t their day 🇫🇷
US #Inflation dynamics point to easing headline *and* core inflation in the coming months 📊Headline CPI 🔽 12-mo: 3.5% 🔽 6-mo: 4.1% 🔽 3-mo: 2.8% 📊Core CPI 🔽 12-mo: 2.6% 🔽 6-mo: 2.6% 🔽 3mo: 2.3%
#Inflation cools, but upside risks remain 📈 #CPI -0.4% m/m in June ✅Core -0.02% 🍲Food +0.2% ⛽️Energy -5.7%: Gas -9.7% ⚠️ ✅Core gds -0.1% 🚗New -0% 🚘Used -0.2% 👕Apparel -0.6% ✅Core svc +0% 🏘️Shelter +0.1% 🏡Rent +0.1% 🏠OER +0.2% 🏨Hotel -2.8% 🏥Med -0.1% 🛫Air +0.2% 📜Car insur -2%
Mixed #inflation news from @NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in June 🔥Inflation still #1 most important problem 🔥Net share raising prices: 38% -- high since 2023 ✅Net share expecting to raise prices: 32% -- eased off
Monetary Policy at a Crossroads Governor Christopher J. Waller At the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York @nabe_econ www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Very proud of the @BelRedDevils. A great @FIFAWorldCup that unfortunately ends with 4 injuries to key players, reflective of a long season! 🇧🇪💪
Federal Reserve announces the leadership and objectives of its 5 task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Governor Waller of the Federal Reserve Board will be speaking at NY chapter of NABE on Monday, July 13. www.linkedin.com/posts/nyabe-...
#Fed Governor Waller: "Forward guidance can help speed up policy transmission, but if it is not flexible enough, it can hinder policy transmission. And, in some cases, it's best not to use it at all." "But forward guidance is more art than science..." www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
The saga continues: « The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) has informed the United States Soccer Federation that it contests the eligibility of the player, should the player be listed on the referee's team sheet. This leaves all further actions open. »
The Belgian federation is challenging FIFA's decision to let U.S. forward Folarin Balogun play in World Cup match. www.rbfa.be/en/news/upda...
👏 What an unbelievable comeback from 0-2 with 8min to play!!! Incredible !!! Really poor play for the first 80min but the @BelRedDevils came back with a vengeance against valiant @FootballSenegal Lions 🇧🇪🇧🇪🇧🇪-🇸🇳🇸🇳 #WorldCup2026 #BELSEN
🏘️Housing in the doldrums during spring selling season ⛔️New homes sales in May: ❌-7.4% m/m ❌-6.8% y/y ❌ 580k pace tied for lowest since 2022 🚫Nearly 500k unsold homes 🚫10.3 months of supply: 2nd highest since 2009 🔥Average sale price $540k: 2nd all-time high
⛔️Cause for concern 🔻Real disposable income (aka the money in our pocket after taxes & inflation) was flat (0% y/y) while consumer spending is up 2.1% y/y 🐖More & more are dipping into savings, using credit & leveraging wealth ⚖️Uneven & fragile picture
🛢️#Inflation acceleration leading to real income squeeze. The pressure should abate slightly in June. 🔥May 2026 🔺Headline inflation ⤴️3-month 6.3% ⤴️6-month 5.3% ⤴️12-month 4.1% 🔺Core PCE inflation ⤴️3-month 4.1% ⤴️ 6-month 3.5% ⤴️12-month 3.4%
US #Inflation pressures firming on #MiddleEast shock (& lingering #tariffs) 📆May 2026 🟠Headline PCE prices: +0.45% m/m 🟠Core PCE prices: +0.32% m/m 🎯Inflation moving away from #Fed 2% target 🔺Headline PCE inflation: 4.1% (+0.3pt) 🔺Core PCE inflation: 3.4% (+0.1pt)
US Spending resilience despite inflation 🛒Consumer spending +0.7% ✅Inflation-adj +0.3% 💵Disposable income +0.7% ✅Inflation-adj +0.3% 🏦Savings rate: 3.0% (flat): Low since 2022⚠️ 📈PCE #inflation 🔺Headline inflation: 4.1% (+0.3pt) 🔺Core inflation: 3.4% (+0.1pt)
🆕A new communication era Breaking down #Fed Chair Warsh's first #FOMC meeting with @juleshyman.bsky.social & Josh Lipton, and Stephanie Aliaga, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist on @yahoofinance.com sg.finance.yahoo.com/video/expert...
Adjusted for inflation, #retail sales show concentration & volume pressure ✅Total +0.4% ✅Core +0.9% 💻Online 1.6% 🛋️Furn 1.5% 🏠Build mat 0.6% --------------------- 👗Cloth 0% 🛒Groc 0% 🚗Auto -0.2% ⚕️Health -0.4% 👩🍳Rest/bar -0.4% 🎮Elec -0.9% 🏬Merch -2.0% ⛽️Gas -3.6%
US #Retail sales: Broad spending in May ✅Sales +0.9% ✅Inflation-adj +0.4% ✅Core sales +0.7% ✅Volumes +0.6% ⛽️Gas 3.4% 💻Online 1.5% 🚗Auto 1.2% 🛋️Furn 1.0% ⚕️Health 0.6% 🏬Merch 0.4% ⚽️Sports 0.3% 👗Cloth 0.3% 🛒Groc 0% 🏠Build mat 0% 👩🍳Rest/bar -0.1% 🎮Elec -0.5%
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%, highest since 1995, and pledged more hikes to come, fueling speculation of another move before year end Separately the central bank said it would stop paring back its bond buying from next April www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🇨🇳 “China consumer spending contracted in May for first time since the pandemic & investment deteriorated, exposing risks still facing the economy” ⛔️ Retail sales -0.6% y/y ✅ Industrial production +4.5% y/y ⛔️ Fixed Asset Invest -4.1% y/y YTD ✅ Exports +19% y/y (chips +111%)