Georg Zachmann
@gzachmann
senior fellow - energy & climate policy @bruegel_org Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna @HZBde
Market reaction to the European Commission's proposal on the ETS Review and Electrification Act on Friday was relatively muted. Seems like electricity companies were more positively surprised than other emission intensive companies.
That is the benefit of being in the room - online we only see how the starting hour silently disappeared from the webcast page.
Thx again @hureau.fr. We fixed it (for some reason it was placed in Paris before).
Inventories – on which we have limited visibility – seem to be draining. At the key ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) commercial storage hub crude and diesel are relatively stable, but jet fuel stocks have been dropping 30% below the 5-year average even before this renewed closure. 5/6
Physical supply is visibly tightening. While crude imports have held steady, tanker-based arrivals of refined oil products into the EU declined considerably during the initial closure - dropping as much as 50% below the historical 5-year average. 4/6
Prices surged during the initial shock (jet fuel +170%, crude +90%), and the renewed blockade will only add pressure. Yet EU governments have committed €12bn to cushion consumers - 55% of it via untargeted measures [more detail: www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026... 3/6
The EU’s structural vulnerability goes beyond crude (of which EU imports 97%). Since 1990, EU jet fuel imports grew 5-fold, and road diesel 25-fold. EU is increasingly exposed to global product markets. 2/6
Prompted by the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz here our piece from only one month ago. The brief reopening during the ‘truce’ didn't fix the underlying 13 mb/d global shortfall. [Link to article: www.bruegel.org/analysis/europe-must-prepare-possible-oil-supply-crunch] 🧵 1/6
We have something new for you! Today we launched the Bruegel ETS Tracker. Based on the great work by Jan Abrell you can now easily access: - emissions by sector, location, installation, time - allocation - auction revenues - carbon prices ets.bruegel.org [feedback more than welcome]
Daily air traffic in Europe fell below its 2025 values in April and May 2026. Over the course of June 2026 it recovered to a 3 percent increase compared to June 2025.
First time in five years EU gas storages were not yet half full, by Juli 1st.
yes, there is. We discuss it in the paper. The corresponding financial envelope over 7 years - even if it could fully utilised - would only cover 10-15% of the damage of the 2021-floods in Western Europe.
9/10: So, what needs to change? We identify and describe five areas – from narrowing the climate insurance gap to some EU-wide risk pooling – to increase fiscal resilience against climate risks.
8/10: And the cases show that the EU must prepare much better - at all governance levels – to withstand individual climate disasters.
7/10: We provide case studies from climate events in the EU which illustrate the potential size of these damages. (really great work by @keliauskaite.bsky.social and M-S Lappe).
6/10: Historically, Western and Southern Europe bore ~85% of cumulative per-capita losses. But looking ahead, all EU countries face severe, near-term exposure to floods and wildfires. The EU needs to prepare for an increasing frequency and cost of climate disasters.
3/10: The direct fiscal hit is just one channel. Extreme weather impacts the entire economy across different vectors.
2/10: The bill is mounting. Between 1980 and 2024, EU direct economic losses from climate extreme exceeds €800 billion. And 25% of that damage occurred in just the last four years.
International carbon credits are back on the EU's agenda. We prepared a taxonomy of key risks associated with project-based international carbon crediting. Spoiler: A lot of things went wrong in the past, and some problems of project-based credits are structural. www.bruegel.org/analysis/buy...
Prices affect demand! EU countries where gasoline+diesel prices incl. taxes increased more saw on average stronger automotive fuel demand reduction. [here: controlling for market size and adding diesel makes this even ore clear]
Good question. There is no obvious data issue. Tank-tourism is also unlikely (i.a., as absolute prices are very high). AI suggests: low baseline in 2025, and stronger economic rebound in 1Q26 - but maybe some Finns here know better ...
If explanatory variable is the change in the volume-weighted diesel and gasoline price, rather than only the gasoline price -> we are getting closer to statistical significance.
EU LNG imports in May 2026 were lower than in previous months or in May 2025, and they continued to slow down over the course of the month. Now, gas storage volumes are close to their seasonal lows. www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
Good question: Netherlands does not report the "Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores" used here.
Prices affect demand! EU countries where gasoline prices incl. taxes increased more saw on average stronger automotive fuel demand reduction.