Janis Kluge
@jakluge
Russia & Economics All views private German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) Picture: Tamek Kowalski
Availability of different types of fuels: The main fuels (92, 95 and diesel) are increasingly more available, according to the data.
The average length of the queues seems to be decreasing gradually. *"очереди нет" is not coded correctly, but it rarely appears in the data, it doesn't make a difference that would be visible in the chart.
The share of operating gas stations seems to be increasing (the queue/low information here doesn't match the queue details, an apparent data inconsistency, but the trend is visible).
Most of the gas stations still have a reported status within the last few hours. If the last reported status is more than 14 hours ago, that status is not reported anymore. But the average "freshness" of the reports is worsening slightly.
This is why the confidence of the data has fallen below the threshold (which I arbitrarily put at 0.5 in my previous charts) for most data points.
Because the app gdebenz is used less frequently, the data confidence is fall over time (it depends on how many users confirm gas station information). Here is the average confidence for gas stations over the last few days. You can see the downtrend.
A more detailed look at Russian gas stations: The situation seems to be improving, and partially as a result of that (and the availability of alternative gasoline apps) the data quality has deteriorated a bit. First the chart that shows the situation the best (in my view).
Russia's Finance Ministry has announced it will stop issuing government bonds "to facilitate market stabilization". Russian financial markets have been crashing in recent months, with 10year bond rates now close to 17%. minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
The current situation at Russian gas stations: Improvement in Kazan and Rostov, but overall the situation hardly changed.
New service in Russia: Give your car to a valet for a few hours and he will stand in line at the gas station for you. Filling up the tank this way costs 4000 rubles ($50), plus gasoline razumeyetsya. www.evening-kazan.ru/obshhestvo/n...
Great data by Mediazona showing the share of gas stations actually selling gasoline in recent days.
Speaking of diesel: At least in some parts of the country, it is now clearly less scarce than gasoline. There is an increasing price differential at many indepedent gas stations.
Situation at Russian gas stations in the last 5 days and today: Moscow and St Petersburg are prioritized. It looks like the situation is improving, but I checked several cities in detail, and I think the increasing availability of fuel has a different reason: Higher prices.
The situation at Russian gas stations in the last 6 days. Each bar shows the known gas stations in the city dataset, incl. the share of them for which there is no data or low data confidence. If fewer drivers use gdebenz, the data becomes useless (Omsk).
Today's situation at Russian gas stations, compared to the previous 3 days (where data is available).
The length of queues at gas stations in different Russian cities: The situation has improved a lot in Omsk in recent days, and Moscow is supplied better than some of the cities around it. Source is gdebenz (data behaves normally, manipulation probably plays a small role if any).
Russian Urals oil is now below $45 or around 3500 rubles per barrel. The Russian budget is based on 5500 rubles per barrel ($59 per barrel and 92.2 exchange rate). Link to source: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russian government debt (fixed rate - around 70% of the total): Even without budget deficits, old low-cost debt has to be rolled over into new bonds with very high interest rates, leading to rising interest payments.
So much for Russia's windfall oil revenues this year: Budget receipts from natural resources are still far behind previous years' levels, despite some improvement in the last two months.