Compare that to a map of forests in the Western US, where the green is much smaller in volume and broken up. (Forests east of the 100th meridian have a different fire regime.) 15/

@brendenwrensink.bsky.social brought this map to my attention. It does a good job of showing scale and of course, much of the green is both uninhabited and inaccessible by ground. 14/

Take a look at this photo and see if you can find the air tanker. Hint: Look for some pixels just above the tree tops. 9/

OK, let's do this again. This is the fire triangle. All three sides must exist. Without any one of heat, oxygen, or fuel, you have no fire. 1/

To little surprise, the national preparedness level was raised to PL4 today. As of this morning, there were 10 Complex IMTs committed. Tomorrow morning's report will show more.

Will we get a simplified, linear progression of events or will there be some appreciation for how humans try to make good decisions in a stressful, uncertain environment with incomplete information? Can we manage the hindsight bias when we already know the outcome? 6/

We do remember. You were once part of the wildland fire community and now you are part of our culture. RIP brothers.

Just to be clear, there is no way a career National Park Service employee wrote this.

Vegetation is drying out fast across the Western US. Friday looks like it could be a challenge for initial attack in several areas. For the PNW, there is a "high risk" in south central and SE OR for significant fires on Friday.

Happy Frank Wills Day to all who celebrate.

In spite of everything, it is still Flag Day and I hope you all had a good one. "Resolved, That the flag of the thirteen United States be thirteen stripes, alternate red and white; that the union be thirteen stars, white in a blue field, representing a new constellation."

That's a great collection of offensive wings to pair with Wilt. And, uh, Alonzo is in there too.

For September, the focus is on NorCal and the PNW. Of particular concern is that conditions will be elevated across NorCal and western OR/WA for two months or more. Assuming we get the ignitions, we will have fires that will be on the landscape until a major seasonal change in the weather. 5/

August brings a strong monsoonal flow across the 4 Corners, raising humidities and putting a damper on fires in AZ and NM. Meanwhile, conditions accelerate in NorCal, the Upper Great Basin, and the PNW. 3/

July sees things worsen in the west and along the Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana while easing in the Great Lakes. 2/

It's June 1, so we have a new set of monthly fire potential outlooks from NIFC. First up is June, where we have multiple areas with elevated potential, including the Upper Great Lakes, which we don't usually see. Western OR/WA and NorCal seem early too. 1/

Oregon State University has 15,000 acres of research forests spread out over the state. I've led grad-level field trips to visit active wildland fires. Beavers can also work farms through the Ag School and make use of the ocean research fleet. There is much, much more.

Still light fire activity across the US with 19 uncontained large fires (greater than 100 acres in timber/300 acres in grass) & only one IMT currently deployed. Except for a bit of wind in the SW on Thursday, not much fire weather is in the forecast for the Western US. Nationally, we remain at PL2.

I've spent so much time with outdoor sinks that you might say I'm a connoisseur. That's one I have yet to encounter.

The streamflow predictions are well in line with the drought outlook. 2/

Streamflows throughout the Western US look grim for the coming months. “Many of the rivers are likely to experience well-below median streamflows, which may rival the lowest flows on record for the region.” 1/

Bought one of these many, many years ago and have beat the crap out of it on fires and doing other stuff. It's still the only watch I own and I have never had to repair or even wind. Just has a few scrapes. Solar, titanium, and atomic timekeeping for the win.

Happy Jefferson Davis Capture Day. The Michigan soldiers who grabbed him in Georgia reported he was wearing a woman's shawl to hide his identity, but Davis said he was sick and merely borrowing the shawl from his wife.

Happy VE Day to all but the Nazis. Probably the last time there were that many smiles on Wall Street.

WTBS was once the only regular source of NBA games, even if it was all Hawks. It made teen me a Dan Roundfield fan even though I was growing up in East Texas.

For Aug, I'll just note that there's a lot of fuel (vegetation & structures) in WA, OR, ID, & NorCal. With some lightning, we'll end up with fires that will last into Oct or later. Large fires are enormous resource sinks & we'll be hoping for some gentle tropical moisture in the Gulf. 4/

July is extremely concerning. The Gulf states look like bad news and we have above normal conditions in parts of 6 geographic areas out West. If this forecast holds and we end up pushing resources to the South, I don't see how we meet public expectations across all states. 3/

June sees the SE ease up a bit, but still has FL in red as well as LA & East TX. That's a lot of folks outside the West with elevated fire conditions. The 4 Corners shows a usual pattern, but it's early for eastern WA/OR & NorCal to see so much red. June could set crews up for fatigue later. 2/

It's May 1, so we get the next 4 months worth of fire potential outlooks. It's not surprising that the SW shows up as May/June is typically the time of high fire danger in AZ/NM. What is worth noting is the SE & FL, which could cause problems. MN fires, especially in the lakes area, are tough. 1/

Why did nobody on here tell me Naomi Zack has a new book? academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcont...