Joe Cirincione
@joecirin
I don’t post often, so I try to make every one count. I’ve worked for 45 years in government, think tanks, Georgetown U. and philanthropy. I write, lecture and do media interviews. On Substack at: joecirincione.substack.com
A few days ago in @newrepublic.com, I sketched out three scenarios on how Trump’s war could end. Unfortunately, we may now be realizing the worst possible option. Read more here: newrepublic.com/article/2130...
My analysis of Trump's pointless new military strikes and three scenarios of how this new phase of the war might develop. open.substack.com/pub/joecirin...
The sun is out and I’m on the Cape Cod Rail Trail. Bumped into Mitch McConnell in line for fried clams. We talked about Trump’s failed interventions in Iran and the World Cup for about 20 minutes.
I’ve been quiet this week. I’m out hiking in the Rocky Mountains. I’ve got to say, it’s great to be out of Washington.
I will join Alex Witt at 3 o’clock today @ms.now to discuss the latest on Trump‘s failed war and his floundering negotiations.
The Swamp Metaphor Eating the Trump Presidency. I went down to the Reflecting Pool today to see for myself. It’s often been scummy but I’ve never seen it this bad. It was absolutely NOT blue. Crews had been cleaning all day but the algae still covers the bottom of the pool like a green shag rug.
Can’t Central Casting do better than this? A bit stereotypical, don’t you think? Here is the Palm Beach Trump donor who owns the company awarded a no-bid contract to clean the reflecting pool. Way to go, Johnny. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/u...
This is beyond symbolic coincidence. There is something almost cosmically ironic that Trump’s reflecting pool is not American Flag Blue but Iranian Flag Green.
Here is the exact text in the MOU. It is actually weaker than the JCPOA.
I was honored 12 years ago to join former senior military and government officials in warning about the severe negative consequences of war with Iran. We were wrong. It was much worse than we thought. Trump and Bibi’s war is a complete disaster. www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/defaul...
Just finished a great talk with @jonatomic.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social. Jon will publish the whole thing soon on his Substack. Here's a preview.
Man, I just had a fabulous talk with the great @djrothkopf.bsky.social while guest hosting The Bill Press Pod ( @billpress.bsky.social). He really let loose on the mess Trump has made -- and how we can fix it. It will be up early Tuesday morning. Hope you can listen.
Trump is perhaps the world's worst negotiator. He overruled his own negotiators to add on more demands. Like it's some kind of real estate deal and he can squeeze the buyer for more $$$. But Iran holds all the cards and has called his bluff.
I will join Alex Witt @msnownews.bsky.social at 3:25 pm ET to discuss the mess of Trump’s Iran negotiations.
I’ll be on @CNN at 2:30pm ET to talk with anchors Brianna Keilar & Boris Sanchez about negotiations with Iran to end the war. Trump is in a weak position but Iran seems to have renewed their offer to get rid of their large stockpile of enriched uranium. That would be a good deal, just like the JCPOA
Iran now has about 10 tons of uranium enriched to various levels. Before the war, and now again in negotiations, they offered to down blend all of this and ship it out of the country. Just as they did under the 2015 Iran Deal. If Trump hadn't ripped it up, they wouldn't have any U to ship out.
Both my father and father-in-law flew bombers in WWII. Here’s my dad, Vince, in an old photo my brother just restored. Seeing it in color instead of B&W for the first time makes it more real and brings home how young the soldiers were whose sacrifices we honor each Memorial Day.
My granddaughter is competing in the Capitol Math Classic at the Diamond Club @nationals.com Park. Which is the closest I’ll likely ever get again to the Diamond Club.
I was alive and aware in 1972 when Nixon went to China. He put US geopolitical interests first, business a distant second. Trump does exactly the opposite. For him and his billionaire CEO travel companions it’s all about business deals. American security interests are an afterthought.
The second reason is that he quotes me from a talk we had last year about the idiocy of starting a war with Iran. I do this not to show that I am prophetic, but to show that anyone who knew the tiniest bit about Iran could predict the quagmire Trump is now in. This is National Security 101.
“We are a back-sliding democracy heading full-tilt towards authoritarianism.” Stacy Abrams tells Chris Hayes, reacting outrageous Tennessee GOP attempt to eliminate all Black representatives.
The spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission just tweeted this.
New reporting by @CNN and @reuters.com confirm that Trump’s war has not set back Iran’s nuclear program. US intel confirms there is no significant change since the 2025 bombings. We discussed all this on CNN today. video.snapstream.net/Play/8WtTCph...
The Iraq War was never meant to end with Iraq. It was part of a regime-change fantasy that led us directly into the disastrous Iran War. I explore the origins of both of this wars in my new Substack newsletter, just published today. joecirincione.substack.com/p/the-origin...
Here’s my contribution to the analysis of the growing threat inside the Pentagon.
And in conclusion, some smart advice that Trump is likely too ignorant and too arrogant to follow.